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THE DISASTERS OF HYPE

hypeIt can be dangerous to believe one’s own or others’ hype.

President Obama’s $800-billion spending package in 2009 was supposed to restore economic growth, yet the economy has only limped along in the years since. It grew by only 1.6 percent last year -- and the Obama administration set the record of never having at least one year of 3 percent or more growth.  How could Mr. Obama have been so wrong?

The often-wrong blowhard, New York Times economist Paul Krugman, made the widely quoted comment on election night when it became apparent that Donald Trump would win the presidency and the markets had initially fallen: “If the question is when markets will recover, the first-pass answer is never.”

The next day, the Dow Jones set a record high -- and since Election Day the markets have increased in value by about $3 trillion.  How could Mr. Krugman been so wrong?

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CLEANING UP THE WORLD’S MESS

the-worlds-messIn his historic press conference last week (02/16), President Trump stated an obvious truth:

“To be honest, I inherited a mess.
It's a mess. At home and abroad, a mess.”

No sane person can disagree.  For the last eight years, the Zero Presidency was a ridiculous disaster either creating or doing nothing about a vast welter of serious problems all over the world.

The question is: what should Trump do about it? 

That is, as an America First President, he sees his job is to attend to America’s problems first and foremost, that it’s not his job to clean up every mess on earth.  What is his job is to focus on the messes that most critically affect our national security and our economy.

Let’s identify some of the biggest.  Numero Uno is Chicom China, then comes Putin’s Russia, Erdogan’s Turkey, Euroweenie Europe, and Mullah Iran, while right next door to us is Drug Cartel Mexico and an entire country on the verge of mass starvation, Chavista Venezuela.  There’s lots more, but that will do for starters.

None of the major messes will be cleaned up quickly nor with any one solution.  So what follows is a series of suggestions to consider that might contribute to the cleanup process.

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THE UNITED STATES WILL OPPOSE THE UN’S ANTI-ISRAEL BIAS

US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley
US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley

[This is the text of Amb. Haley’s statement to the press following the UN Security Council meeting on the Middle East on February 16]

The first thing I want to do is talk about what we just saw in there. The Security Council just finished its regular monthly meeting on Middle East issues. It’s the first meeting like that that I’ve attended, and I have to say it was a bit strange.

The Security Council is supposed to discuss how to maintain international peace and security. But at our meeting on the Middle East, the discussion was not about Hezbollah’s illegal build-up of rockets in Lebanon. It was not about the money and weapons Iran provides to terrorists. It was not about how we defeat ISIS. It was not about how we hold Bashar al-Assad accountable for the slaughter of hundreds and thousands of civilians.

No, instead, the meeting focused on criticizing Israel, the one true democracy in the Middle East. I am new around here, but I understand that’s how the Council has operated, month after month, for decades.

I’m here to say the United States will not turn a blind eye to this anymore. I am here to underscore the ironclad support of the United States for Israel. I’m here to emphasize the United States is determined to stand up to the UN’s anti-Israel bias.

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THE LEFT’S INTOLERANCE OF TOLERANCE

churchill-on-the-left-wing"In a free state, tongues too should be free,” wrote Erasmus 501 years ago.  That said, the law has always rightly forbidden incitement to violence.

Yet the Speaker of the British House of Commons, John Bercow, plans to prevent President Trump from addressing Parliament – based on no claim whatever that he might incite violence.  Similar to the bans on controversial speakers that are routine at universities in Britain and America today.

They are about the giving and taking of offence. An example is Julie Bindel, a radical feminist, banned from speaking at Sheffield University because she was not “LGBT friendly.”

The habit of curbing free speech is being imported into Britain from America, where universities have become increasingly intolerant of anything that departs from a narrow orthodoxy. A howling mob surrounded the Yale professor Nicholas Christakis in 2015 after his wife Erika had expressed little sympathy with those who wanted Halloween costumes outlawed.

What is causing this intolerance? Why are so many students so keen to outlaw rather than answer opinions they disagree with?

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FRACKING OPEC

Saudi energy minister Khalid Al-Falih
Saudi energy minister Khalid Al-Falih

The short-lived recovery of world oil prices is already in danger as OPEC and Russia fail to deliver on agreed output cuts and America’s shale industry roars back to life.

“All hell is going to break loose if they don’t extend the deal beyond June,” says Tamas Varga from brokers PVM Oil Associates.

Resurgent shale output in the US leaves OPEC and Russia facing a Sisyphean task. America’s frackers have cranked up output faster than OPEC thought possible, and on a large enough scale to alter the global balance of supply and demand.

Rising US crude stocks are a cautionary warning at a time when funds are betting heavily on a fresh oil boom, with ‘long’ contracts running at 812,000 lots. This is higher than at any time in the last five years and is approaching record levels, raising the risk of “liquidation” by investors.

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PANAMA PROSPERITY

Panama City
Panama City

Panama City, Panama.  Panama has come a long way in a short time.

In the past decade, it has more than doubled its per capita gross domestic product. At the end of June 2016, it opened the new canal next to the old one that could no longer accommodate the current generation of post-Panamax ships.

Panama City has a spectacular skyline with many very tall, modern buildings — the Trump Tower being the tallest at 932 feet — with eye-catching designs and with many new ones under construction.  

As can be seen in the table below, Panama has by far the highest income in Central America. The question is, why has Panama done so much better than its regional competitors?  The answer is…

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HALF-FULL REPORT 02/17/17

wildest-show-on-earthThe NY Post has it right:  this week has been a circus – both here in Washington DC, and very regretfully, here at TTP (more on that later).

The week was capped off yesterday afternoon (2/16) by Trump’s mind-blow of a press conference in the East Room of the White House.  You can read the full transcript here – or watch the full video.

Read or watch and enjoy.  For the HFR, the best moment came when Trump told Jim Acosta of CNN he wasn’t going to be calling CNN “Fake News” anymore – that he was changing CNN’s nickname to “Very Fake News.”

The takeaway from this event is not that Trump went on an “epic rant” reading the riot act to the Lying Swine enemedia – it’s that he was having fun doing so.  He was enjoying himself, as he admitted right on camera.

After a week of celebration by the Lying Swine, getting their first scalp (Mike Flynn’s), toasting themselves in every bar in DC that next they’d get Kellyanne then Preibus, and Dan Rather braying that Flynngate will be Trump’s Watergate causing him to resign – the last thing in the world these putzes expected was this from The Donald.

Instead of being cowed, humbled, and on the defensive, he from the get-go was on the offense, on the take-no-prisoners-attack, and having a good time doing so.  The putzes were, and still are a day later, in a state of Shock and Awe.   They better remember the feeling the next time they contemplate taking on this president.  Here’s a reminder he Tweeted this afternoon (02/17).  It’s war all right:

trump-fake-news-tweet
Here we go with this week’s HFR!

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FLYNN AND FLOURNOY

flournoyThat didn’t take long, did it?  24 days into the Trump Presidency, the Fake News Media (FNM) claims its first scalp.  This “scandal” should have been a joke.  Now it’s a tragedy, because the White House didn’t laugh it out of the park at the inception, let the FNM blow it up into a cause célèbre, and then caved.

A very dangerous tragedy, because the White House allowed collusion between the FNM and the CIA to damage the presidency.

Let’s review what happened.

In late December, Trump’s National Security Advisor-designate Michael Flynn had phone conversations with Russian Ambassador to the US Sergey Kisylak.  Langley promptly leaked to the FNM and Democrats suffused with Trump Hatred, like lunatic-commie Maxine Waters (D-CA) that Flynn, as a private citizen was in violation of the Logan Act.

The Logan Act bans private citizens from negotiating with foreign powers that are in dispute with the US.  Langley huffed that Flynn was “negotiating” with Kisylak.

The instant Maxine began braying through the FNM megaphone, Trump and his Transition Team should have responded: “This is a joke, right?”  But they didn’t.  Big mistake.  Why brings us to Francis Flournoy.

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THE CIA VS THE PRESIDENT – WHO WILL WIN?

ciaThe CIA has denied a security clearance to Trump National Security Council (NSC) official Robin Townley without any allegation, much less evidence of disloyalty to the United States.

Quite simply, it is because the CIA disapproves of Mr. Townley’s attitude toward the agency, and this is unprecedented. President Trump appointed Mr. Townley to coordinate Africa policy at the NSC. The CIA did not want to deal with him. Hence, it used the power to grant security clearances to tell the president to choose someone acceptable to the agency, though not so much to him.

This opens a larger issue: Since no one can take part in the formulation or execution of foreign or defense policy without a high-level security clearance, vetoing the president’s people by denying them clearances trumps the president.

Simply put, the CIA has declared war upon the President of the United States.  Who will win this war?

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RENEWABLES ARE DOOMED – FOSSIL FUELS ARE THE FUTURE

trump-digs-coalWe’re on the verge of a new energy revolution. Except it’s the exact opposite of the one the “experts” at places like BP (British Petroleum),  the International Energy Agency and the Fake News Media are predicting.

For years we’ve been assured by politicians, energy industry specialists and green advocates that renewables such as wind and solar are getting more and more cost-competitive while dirty fossil fuels are so discredited and wrong and evil we’ll soon have to leave them in the ground.

But to believe this you’d have to believe in a world where Donald Trump and Brexit hadn’t happened; where taxpayers were still prepared to bankroll, ad infinitum, the expensive, inefficient, environmentally-damaging produce of favored crony-capitalists; where no one had access on the internet to articles showing how the whole climate change industry is such a scam.

That world doesn’t exist.  Here’s the one that does.

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MARINE LE PEN – THE FRENCH DONALD TRUMP

marine-le-pen
Marine Le Pen

If Marine Le Pen wins France's presidential elections in May, all talk of punishing Britain for the outrage of Brexit will become irrelevant.

French diplomacy will pirouette overnight under a National Front (FN) leader. The Élysée Palace will seek an Entente Cordiale with the British, offering a bilateral alliance on new foundations.

It will then be the European Union that faces an existential choice: whether to reinvent itself as a loose federation of nation states, or succumb to galloping disintegration

"What is the point in punishing a country? It is senseless, unless you think the EU is a prison, and you are condemned if you escape. I want to rebuild our damaged relations with the United Kingdom," she told me in an interview yesterday (02/15).

"France is the political heart of Europe, and the moment we leave the euro the whole project collapses," said Ms Le Pen, as she leans across the table in her tiny office in the European Parliament with a glint of mischief.

"A whole psychological framework is breaking down. I think 2017 is going to be the year of the grand return of the nation state, the control of borders and currencies," she said.  Hearing her, you can’t help but think of Donald Trump.

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THE BEST AND THE WORST STATES

rahnchart_021617If you were going to start a new business in the United States that was not location dependent, what state would choose?

Countries, states and cities all compete to attract businesses — both large and small. More businesses mean more jobs and usually greater prosperity.

On Feb. 8, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council (SBE) released its annual ranking of the 50 states “according to 55 policy measures, including a wide array of tax, regulatory, and government spending measures.”

The findings were not surprising — Nevada, Texas, South Dakota, Wyoming and Florida were at the top, while Vermont, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey and California were at the bottom.

What is troublesome is that year after year the business-unfriendly states do so little to improve their rankings. As the author of the study, Raymond J. Keating, chief economist of the SBE Council, noted: “Too many elected officials choose to ignore the basic economic realities of how government affects entrepreneurship, business, and investment.”

Politicians endlessly cry about the “need” for more taxes and regulations in order to “protect the people.” But in most places, government is already far larger than optimum, and so more taxes and regulations only make things worse.

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A SPECIAL NOTICE TO MEMBERS

In an effort to provide you with a new site, we launched last week. It had tested out perfectly in a test environment. Unfortunately, it had various problems once it went “live” online.

To provide you with continued access we have reverted to the original site which should function as before. Soon the articles posted last week will show up. You will see the HFR as usual later today.

We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience. We value you and your participation at TTP.

Thank you for your patience.

- Admin

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