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HALF-FULL REPORT 11/04/16

"It ain't over till it's over."

How long have we heard that Donald Trump was not only doomed, but 30-points-down doomed? Done deal. Hopeless. Not even worth talking about. I'm not telling you he'll win today. But I am telling you he can win.

In a race between the two most hated people in the history of major party nominees, the one who can drive the other's negatives higher is going to win.

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Comey's bombshell re-opening of the FBI's case against Hillary Clinton -- as a result of the discovery of over 650,000 previously undisclosed emails on a computer owned by Huma Abedin and her estranged husband Anthony Weiner, under investigation for child porn -- is, of course, the impetus for the transformation in Trump’s fortunes.

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So let’s come full circle and look at the polls.

Trump is now beating Clinton 53-43 among voters who’ve made up their minds. That’s a very, very big deal

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This is the week's HFR leading up to the Presidential  Elections! You can't miss this!!!

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WHO’S PUTIN FOR?

Vladimir PutinI keep wondering why so many smart people believe Vladimir Putin is doing everything possible to win the election for Donald Trump. 

If I were Putin, I’d prefer Hillary. Bigtime.

Putin’s got a lot going with Hillary. His pals donated more than a hundred million dollars to the Clinton Family Foundation while she was secretary of state, and they gained ownership of twenty percent of America’s uranium supply. 

If Putin were really trying to elect Trump, he’d be leaking the details of that relationship.

Plus, if I were Putin and really wanted Hillary elected, I’d be inclined to openly endorse Trump, on the theory that most U.S. voters would reason “if Putin likes the guy, we’re better off without him.”

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CHECKMATING OBAMA AT THE UN

CheckmateIn one of the immortal lines of Godfather 2, mafia boss Michael Corleone discusses the fate of his brother, who betrayed him, with his enforcer.

“I don’t want anything to happen to him while my mother is alive,” Corleone said.

Message received.

The brother was murdered after their mother’s funeral.

Last week it was reported that the Obama administration has delivered a message to the Palestinian Authority. The administration has warned the PA that the US will veto any anti-Israel resolution brought before the UN Security Council before the US presidential elections on November 8.

Message received.

Open season on Israel at the Security Council will commence November 9. The Palestinians are planning appropriately.

Israel needs to plan, too. Israel’s most urgent diplomatic mission today is to develop and implement a strategy that will outflank President Barack Obama in his final eight weeks in power.

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THE WORLD RUNS OUT OF DOLLARS

RunOutofDollarsSurging rates on dollar Libor contracts are rapidly tightening conditions across large parts of the global economy, incubating stress in the credit markets and ultimately threatening overvalued bourses.

Three-month Libor rates – the benchmark cost of short-term borrowing for the international system – have tripled this year to 0.88% as inflation worries mount. 

Fear that the US Federal Reserve may have to raise rates uncomfortably fast is leading to an acute dollar shortage, draining global liquidity.

 “The Libor rate is one of few instruments left that still moves freely and is priced by market forces. It is effectively telling us that that the Fed is already two hikes behind the curve,” says Steen Jakobsen from Saxo Bank.  “Something more fundamental is at work. The cost of global capital is going up, full stop.”

“This is highly significant and is our number one concern. Our allocation model is now 100% in cash. This is a warning signal for the market and it happens extremely rarely,” he says.

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CORRUPTION AND PROSPERITY

Grandma in PrisonWhat is the single most important determinate as to whether a country is rich or poor? It is not the level of government spending, taxation, regulation or monetary stability — even though those factors are very important. It is the rule of law, whereby the rules are known and fair, equally applied to all, and where corruption is not tolerated.

The end of great countries and empires was most often caused by internal decay, not by foreign enemies — ancient Greece and Rome being prime examples.  History’s lesson is:

When the rule of law is lost, even great nations disintegrate.

Today, only those who are willfully ignorant fail to recognize that parts of the Internal Revenue Service and the Justice Department, as well as other government agencies, have not only become partisan but also deeply corrupt.

When evidence is destroyed after having been subpoenaed by appropriate congressional committees and private organizations under the Freedom of Information Act, and no action is taken to punish those responsible, it becomes the very definition of corruption.

There are many other examples, but what is disturbing is the extent to which so many journalists have gone to cover up and defend inexcusable behavior.

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WHAT MEMORY IS AND IS NOT

This immortal scene of Maurice Chevalier and Hermione Gingold in the 1958 movie Gigi is so endearingly charming because Chevalier is so good-natured about his misremembrance. 

It’s often difficult, however, to be that way regarding our memories. 

Understanding what memory is – and is not – can do wonders for our relationships, our self-awareness and our peace of mind.

Sitting at the table at Thanksgiving, a family member might recount a memory of an event from your childhood, talking about what you experienced as if his perception of your sentiments on the subject is a fact.

How does that make you feel? Probably at least a little annoyed. He, after all, did not have your memory. He had his memory.

You were both there in the same place at the same time, but you were having your experience of the event and he was having his. The two experiences could be worlds apart.

We’ve all had those arguments where one of us remembers things one way, and the other remembers it differently. For instance…

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HALF-FULL REPORT 10/28/16

When one of the world’s best financial analysts and I find ourselves agreeing with one of the world’s most repulsive SJWs (social justice warriors), you know things are getting über-weird 12 days out from November 8.

Last night (10/27), over two fingers of Ardbeg neat (you don’t insult the best Islay single malt with water or ice), financial guru Michael Markowski and I discussed the bottom line consequences of who wins the White House.

We agreed that hell is coming to breakfast for the stock market no matter who wins.  The complete unsustainability of negative or near-zero interest rates is just one example (see Michael’s video on this below). 

If Trump wins, his policies of eliminating regulatory hamstrings, raising interest rates instead of taxes, cutting spending, repatriating corporate offshore trillions, etc. will result in a V-shape recovery similar to that of Ronald Reagan’s in the early 80s.

If Hillary wins, her policies of more government regulation and taxes will result in a flatline L-shape anti-recovery similar to that of FDR’s in the 1930s, prolonging the Great Depression.  The scariest part of this scenario is that the only way we finally got out the Depression was with World War II. 

Hillary, in other words, will use the coming inevitable crash as all Lefties traditionally use crises – as a rationale to expand government power and control over our lives.  Trump, on the other hand, will use it to expand economic freedom and opportunity which ends the crisis quickly instead of prolonging it and possibly ends in war.

And now for the fun cover story of today:

Stroking Gun

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WHY DEMOCRATS DO NOT BELIEVE IN DEMOCRACY

Democracy Cease to ExistPresident George Bush denounced what he called an “Axis of Evil” in his famed 2002 State of the Union Address little over 4 months after 9/11: Iraq, Iran, North Korea.  That it was – but another Axis of Evil had risen in America itself. 

The Marxist Left in the Democrat Party had morphed into being unvarnished Fascist – seeking power not for any ideological purpose or rationale, but simply for power itself.  What they retained of Marxism was its morality – that the end justifies the means. 

Since their end was power for the sake of power, then any means to get it and keep it, any lie, any dirty trick, any hypocrisy, any threat, any violence, any corruption they could get away with, is the moral thing to do.  The only thing wrong in their eyes is getting caught – which their Enemedia allies were dedicated to preventing.

Under Barack Obama – a treasonous hate-filled racist president dedicated to weakening America and strengthening her enemies in every way possible – the Democrat-Fascist/Enemedia Axis of Evil has reached an epitome of power. 

And just like a dictator in a banana republic or African hellhole – like Maduro in Venezuela, Mugabe in Zimbabwe, or the Castros in Cuba – they will do anything, perpetrate any depravity or dishonesty, to keep it.

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WILL HILLARY ACCEPT DEFEAT?

Sick & TiredThe headlines are in. Trump is the “anti-democratic” candidate because he refuses to rule out challenging the results of an election that has yet to take place. Such a course of action is “beyond the pale.” It’s a threat to democracy. And it is utterly and thoroughly unacceptable.

Except when Democrats do it.

When Hillary dragged Gore away from playing with his Earth globe to campaign for her last month, the crowd booed at his mention of the election and then chanted, “You won, you won.”  Hillary grinned and nodded.

Hillary Clinton has always believed that President Bush illegitimately took office. She has told Democrats that Bush was “selected” rather than “elected.”

The media’s focus has been on whether Trump would accept the results if he loses. Yet a better question might be whether Hillary Clinton would accept her defeat. 

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SANCTIMONY, INC.

Angry Algore, “the crazed sex poodle”
Angry Algore, “the crazed sex poodle”

Time was, leftists complained of rigged elections, the media paid attention to dirty tricks, and conservatives cared more about results than rhetoric.

Donald Trump, in characteristically haphazard fashion, said he thought the election might end up “rigged” (if he lost).  Therefore, he would not endorse the November 8 result if he found that fear confirmed — unless, of course, in Jacksonian fashion, he managed to win.

All hell broke loose, from both the Left and “principled” conservatives, that Trump’s allegations had somehow undermined the American electoral process itself.

Not likely.

“Selected, not elected” was a Democrat talking point after the 2000 Bush victory. In a speech two years after that election, a now sanctimonious Hillary Clinton echoed those “selected” charges against the Bush presidency.

Al Gore became unhinged.  For years, the former vice president could not speak publicly without screaming in vein-bulging style, and seemed to be obsessed by George W. Bush in Carthago delenda est fashion.  The Crazed Sex Poodle is angrily campaigning with Hillary now.

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THE COMING CHINESE DEVALUATION DISASTER

Chinese Deval DisasterChina's property market went mad after the authorities poured fuel on the flames. Beijing is now slamming on the brakes.

Capital outflows from China are accelerating. The hemorrhage has reached the fastest pace since the currency panic at the start of the year.

The latest cycle of credit-driven expansion has already peaked after 18 months. Beijing has had to slam on the brakes, scrambling to control property speculation that the Communist authorities themselves deliberately fomented.

The central bank (PBOC) spent roughly $50bn defending the yuan last month, but this has not stopped the exchange rate sliding to 6.77 against the dollar - the weakest in six years.

"Our view is that the RMB (yuan) will depreciate 20% against the US dollar to 8.1 by the end of 2018 as deflation of the property bubble leads to more capital outflows," says Zhiwei Zhang from Deutsche Bank. "This is deflationary for global trade."

That is an understatement. A Chinese devaluation on this scale would be an earthquake for the world's economic and financial system, unleashing a tsunami of cheap manufacturing exports into Europe and the US.  The world cannot absorb the consequences of so much excess.

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VOTER REGRET

Economist/YouGov Poll Feb 6-7, 2014
Economist/YouGov Poll Feb 6-7, 2014

Four years from now, will you regret having voted for the person you chose this year for president? In decision theory, there is a concept called “regret,” which is the emotion experienced when realizing that an alternative course of action would have likely resulted in a more favorable outcome. 

The current voter regret matrix assumes that either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will win, and that Gary Johnson and Jill Stein will not. It also assumes that neither Hillary nor Donald will receive 50 percent of the vote, and a majority of Americans will have voted for other candidates.

This implies that those who vote for either Mr. Johnson or Dr. Stein will realize that if most of the votes that had gone to the minority candidates had been cast for the loser between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump, the other candidate would have won.

Those who vote for Mrs. Clinton are probably doing so because she is a woman, or they like her bigger government policies with promises of free stuff, or because they fear Mr. Trump more.

Hillary’s supporters are probably going to be disappointed when they eventually realize that she is deeply flawed ethically, and her bad behavior and judgment are not going to improve once she becomes president.

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SPONSOR A MILLENNIAL TODAY

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HALF-FULL REPORT 10/21/16

 

“Either we are going to win this election or we are going to lose this country.” 

That sums it up, doesn’t it?  Either/Or.  It’s a binary choice.  Trump made this clear in an extraordinary speech yesterday (10/20) in Delaware, Ohio.  I strongly encourage you watch it entire.

When the Pub candidate race began some 18 months ago, I was repulsed by Trump.  I still was when he gained the nomination, and very grudgingly supported it only because the alternative of Hillary was a nightmare from which we might never wake up.

Now he’s causing me to think of Arnold Toynbee (1889-1975).  For many years, the 12 volumes of his monumental A Study of History has occupied a pride of place in my library.  (The link is to Wikipedia not Amazon, as the latter only offers abridged versions, not the entire set which sells for over $1,000 on Ebay.)

Toynbee’s thesis on the rise and fall of civilizations is one of “challenge and response.”  Civilizational success is determined by the extent of using challenges as opportunities to grow; failure comes when that ceases. 

Yet Toynbee’s thesis applies to the lives of individuals as well.  They can grow and succeed as moral human beings in response to personal challenges.  As I watched the third debate Wednesday night and his Ohio speech yesterday, it dawned on me that this has happened to Donald Trump.  This is not the same man of yesteryear.   

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