YOU CAN FORGET ABOUT CHINA OVERTAKING THE US ECONOMY
China panic has abated. The Shanghai Composite index of equities is back above 3,000. The much-feared devaluation never happened.
The yuan has strengthened against the dollar this year, to the consternation of Western tourists. Outflows of money have slowed as dollar debt is paid off and Chinese investors wind down 'carry trade' positions.
The International Monetary Fund has just raised its forecast for Chinese growth this year to 6.5%, insisting that it is still far too early to talk about a hard-landing.
Yet that is where the good news ends, for there is a poisonous sting in the tail. We can put away those charts projecting China's 'sorpasso', the moment when the country surpasses the US to become the world's biggest economy. It is not going to happen and here’s why. This is a horror story for real.
