THE EURO’S SUGAR RUSH IS ENDING
The eurozone’s short-lived recovery is already losing steam as stimulus fades and deep problems resurface, raising fears of yet another false dawn and a potential deflation trap if there is any external shock over coming months.
Since the end of November, the euro has steadily risen against the dollar from a low of 1.05 to 1.14 today (5/11). But the sugar rush is coming to an end.
Industrial output fell in 1.3% Germany and 0.3% in France in March as manufacturing stalled, confounding expectations for robust expansion. The relapse in a string of countries suggests that flash estimates of 0.6% GDP growth in the first quarter were too optimistic and may have to be cut.
“The recovery is not gaining any traction. I am really quite worried about another spasm of the debt crisis over the summer,” said Lars Christensen from Markets and Money Advisory.
The eurozone has been basking in a sweet spot over the last year, with stimulus from cheap oil, a weaker euro, ECB bond purchases, and an end to fiscal austerity, all coming together in a "perfect positive storm". “If that can’t produce growth, nothing will,” says Nouriel Roubini from New York University.




