THE CREATIVE DESTRUCTION OF THE EURO
Next to the Nobel, the richest and most prestigious economic award is the £250,000 ($400,000) Wolfson Economics Prize, awarded by the Wolfson Foundation, founded by British entrepreneur and philanthropist Sir Isaac Wolfson in 1955. It currently has an endowment of $1.2 billion.
Unlike the Nobel, the final contenders for the Wolfson are known in advance. This year, out of 425 entrants, five were chosen as finalists - and they all have a shared nightmare on how to "manage" a full or partial disintegration of monetary union. They agree on little else.
"The consequences of a completely unplanned 'Exit' are likely to be catastrophic," said Neil Record from Record Currency Management, one of the five qualifiers.
Catherine Dobbs, a former algorithms expert at Gartmore, said the global shock could be five to 10 times worse than the Lehman earthquake in 2008, given the scale of contracts and counter-party exposure.
The Lehman lesson is that authorities must have contingency plans in place to stop a seizure of the global credit system. The crucial point is exactly how a break-up occurs, not whether it does so.