I do not have a crystal ball and cannot predict the future.  Yet there is now in place a full alignment of “the correlation of forces,” driving the US economy forward.  Thus I am going to predict that the DOW will be above 10,000 by October.  What’s more, it will stay above 10,000 throughout 2004.
 
Did Y2K Cause the Recession?

There is an interesting theory claiming that Y2K helped precipitate the recession.  Remember that it began March 2000 when the Dow and Nasdaq peaked.  What happened was that in preparation for Y2K, corporate America compressed four years of IT

The World Health Organization or WHO announced today that “the worst is over” regarding the SARS epidemic in Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Canada.  WHO pronounced Vietnam for being the first country to eradicate the disease, and praised it for doing so transparently, quickly, and efficiently.

One reason Vietnam was able to do so is because it closed its border with China.  For notably absent in the WHO announcement was any praise for China.  The worst is not over for China.  The worst — far worse — is yet to come.

90% of SARS cases worldwide to this day are

When penguins in Antarctica get hungry, they get nervous.  Grouped together on an iceberg, none of them wants to be the first to jump in the water and go fishing — because there just might be a leopard seal waiting for them.  There’s nothing in the sea a leopard seal finds more tasty to eat than fresh penguin.

So the waddle (on land or ice, a group of penguins is a waddle;  in the water, it’s a raft) bunches together, the ones in the back pushing forward, the ones in the front backing up away from the ice edge.  When

Jack Wheeler
Strategic Investor, July 2001

The origin of the phrase “thinking out of the box” comes from an intelligence test called the Nine Dot Box.  Imagine three rows of three dots, each equally spaced some distance apart on a regular piece of paper.  The task is to connect the dots with a  minimum number of lines drawn by a pen or pencil.  The only rules are:  you must draw a line through every dot once and only once, all lines must be straight (no curves), and your pen/pencil cannot leave the paper. 

Most people cannot figure out how to do

Early last October, a senior White House henchman, let’s call him Richard Head, paid Janet Reno a visit.  The conversation went something like this. 

Head:  Ms. Reno, the president is very concerned that you do the right thing regarding criminal investigations of his administration. 

Reno:  That’s reassuring, Richard — may I call you Dick? 

Head:  Yes — so we at the White House would like you to prosecute Bill. 

Reno (spilling her coffee):  Prosecute the president?  But I thought no matter how massive the evidence against him, I was to stonewall… 

Head:  No, Ms. Reno, that’s the wrong Bill —

The older you get, the more staying in shape is like being the Red Queen of Wonderland: You have keep running faster and faster to stay in the same place.

I want to wish you all a healthy and strong 2004. I can’t tell you how to achieve this, however, because I’m not you and we all have our individual differences and preferences. What I could do is tell you what works for me. This means I don’t have to insert any boilerplate blather about “consult your physician before doing any of this stuff.” You get to make up your own mind about that, and adapt for yourself whatever you think may be useful...

None of all the momentous events that occurred in 2003 -- the recovery of the US economy, the invasion of Iraq and military overthrow of Saddam’s regime, the capture of Saddam, the capitulation of Libya’s Kaddafi, you name it -- was the most important. The single most important event of 2003 is the one that didn’t occur: there was not one single successful terrorist attack in the United States.

This is the single greatest achievement of the year -- and note the identifier achievement. This is not a lucky accident -- although luck and chance played a role as in most everything else in life. But those who are truly wise know that to a very considerable extent, you make your own luck, and this is what George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, and John Ashcroft have done.

One of the most amusing sights of 2003 was to see so many people turn their brains into jello over John Ashcroft. Anyone who has personally known Ashcroft can testify to his decency and integrity. Yet he and his Patriot Act became the focal point of hate for both the Loony Left and the Loony Right -- the Hollywood Left and Dizzy Dean Democrats see eye-to-eye with Jane Fonda Libertarians like Lew Rockwell, Pro-Moslem Conservatives like Grover Norquist, and Hate-Israel Paleocons like Pat Buchanan…