Major General (Ret) Mick Ryan and Lieutenant General Ben Hodges
March 15, 2022
[Generals Ryan and Hodges provide their professional assessment of how and why Russia is losing its military attempt to conquer and subjugate Ukraine. Gen. Ryan gives the background to today (3/15), then Gen. Hodges explains why “the next ten days may decide this war.”]
General Ryan:
Experienced Russia observers were saying as early as 2017 that the power of the Russian military was overestimated, it was challenged by overstretch, and was technologically backward. These observers have been proved right.
Russia committed around 55% of their total regular ground forces to their invasion of Ukraine. This was not a calculated risk by the Russians; it was a gamble. A gamble that is failing badly.
As open source, as well as UK and US military briefs, note, the Russian advances in the north, east and south are grinding to a standstill. They have been outfought by the Ukrainians and have not been able to logistically sustain advances on multiple fronts.
Summing up, Russia has not achieved its key military objectives in the north, east or south. It is conducting concurrent offensives in different, disconnected parts of Ukraine. It has committed all the military forces it had for Ukraine on these missions.
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