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L i k e U s ! ! !

ACTUALLY DOING SOMETHING ABOUT $100 OIL


Yesterday (11/08), the Wall Street Journal ran an article giving ten reasons Why $100 Can't Float.  They were good, persuasive reasons.  Yet taken together, they were not sufficiently persuasive as they ignored the political dimension of the problem.

Put in a nutshell, we have near $100 oil instead of energy independence at a fraction of the cost because Congress is an obstacle rather than a solution to the problem.

Right here in America, we have enormous energy reserves of coal, natural gas, liquid oil, and oil shale.  With foreign oil now so expensive, it should be easy to produce our own energy at far less cost.  And it will be easy if Congress does three things:

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ATTITUDE ADJUSTMENT IN THE SENATE


Over a beer earlier this week with a Republican Senator, I couldn't help but asking how he was doing.  Had the GOP retained its majority, he would have been the chairman of one of the Senate's most powerful committees.  Starting next month, he would be just another minority schmuck.

"Sure, it's a disappointment," he said.  "It's the dream of your life for a guy like me.  So I have a choice.  I can be bitter - or I can have fun.  I choose fun."

I frowned.  "How are you going to have fun?" I asked skeptically.

He smiled.  "Come on, Jack, you know how the Senate works.  It's not like the House, where the minority is lower than dirt, and treated like subhuman Moslem Dhimmis.  Harry (Harry Reid, incoming Senate Majority Leader) has no majority at all.  Hell, it's 51-49, with the 51st being Joe Lieberman and we've got Cheney as a tie-breaker.  We can screw them any time we want and Harry knows it."

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LIBERAL STUPIDITY AND COWARDICE

The "Protocols of the Elders of Harvard"  is what Roger Simon elegantly calls the now-infamous "Israel Lobby" screed written by a professor/administrator from Harvard's Kennedy School, and another academic who holds an endowed chair in the political-science department at the University of Chicago.

It might finally disabuse people of the conventional nonsense that professors at our "elite" schools are really smart.

"The Israel Lobby" is really dumb, both intellectually and politically. It should dissuade rational Harvard and Chicago donors from giving any further money to the Kennedy School (where one author, Steven Walt, was, incredibly, the academic dean until his abrupt resignation following the publication of the unfortunate screed) or to the Chicago political-science department (where John Mearsheimer holds an endowed chair).

It should also help bright high-school students and their parents realize that a lot of "top" universities are living on largely undeserved reputations.  If folks like Walt and Mearsheimer are the stars of that galaxy, it's best to send our children to a different solar system.

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HOW TO BUY AN LCD

Deciding whether to plunk your money down on an LCD or a CRT is tough enough, but if you've decided to "go modern" and buy an LCD, you've got a lot of further choices to wade through. Not all LCDs are created equal, and deciding which LCD flavor to spend your money on means that you've got to bone up on some more monitor information.

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EGYPT’S EXTRAORDINARY PEACE PROPOSAL TO THE PALESTINIANS


Something extraordinary has happened.
 
On August 31, PLO chief and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told an audience of Fatah members that Egypt had offered to give - give, as in cede sovereignty to - the PA some 1,600 square kilometers (625 square miles) of land in Sinai adjacent to Gaza, thus quintupling the size of the Gaza Strip. Egypt even offered to allow all the so-called "Palestinian refugees" to settle in the expanded Gaza Strip.
 
Then Abbas told his Fatah followers that he rejected the Egyptian offer.

On Monday (9/08), Israeli Army Radio substantiated Abbas's claim.
 
According to Army Radio, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi proposed that the Palestinians establish their state in the expanded Gaza Strip.
 
In his speech to Fatah members, Abbas said, "They [the Egyptians] are prepared to receive all the refugees, [and are saying] ‘Let's end the refugee story.'" "But," he insisted, "It's illogical for the problem to be solved at Egypt's expense. We won't have it."
 
In other words, Sisi offered Abbas a way to end the Palestinians' suffering and grant them political independence. And Abbas said, "No, forget statehood. Let my people suffer."

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WE SHOULD CARE ABOUT UKRAINE


Why worry about Ukraine? To many, it seems far away and a country about which they know little.  (Excepting TTPers, of course, who were updated on events there in the HFR of 01/24/14.)

News clips of the recent violent demonstrations in Kiev have occasionally appeared on the news shows, but most Americans have shown little interest. Yet Ukraine has the very real possibility of setting off the next financial crisis.

The first thing to grasp about Ukraine is its size.  It is the largest country in Europe at 233ksm (thousand square miles), bugger than France (213ksm), not quite as big as Texas (268ksm).  The second thing is its critically strategic location between Russia and Europe (see maps below).

The crisis scenario is as follows: Russia is Europe's major gas supplier. About half of that gas is sent through pipelines that cross Ukraine.  Further, Ukraine is increasingly unstable for three reasons:

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IT’S TIME TO CRUSH CLIMATE ALARMISTS


With the release of its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has proved beyond reasonable doubt that it cannot be taken seriously.  A sample of reasons why:

IPCC lead author Dr Richard Lindzen has accused it of having "sunk to a level of hilarious incoherence."   *Paul Matthews has found a very silly graph; Steve McIntyre has exposed how the IPCC appears deliberately to have tried to obfuscate the unhelpful discrepancy between its models and the real world data; and this latest from Christopher Booker.

Now, of course, I fully appreciate how the climate alarmists are going to respond to these criticisms: same way they always do - with a barrage of lies, ad homs, cover-ups, rank-closings, blustering threats, straw men, and delusion-bubble conferences like the one they've just staged at the Royal Society in which one warmist pseudo-scientist after another mounts the podium to reassure his amen corner that everything's going just fine and that those evil denialists couldn't be more wrong.

There is more than enough solid evidence now to demonstrate to any neutral party that the doomsday prognostications the warmist establishment has been trying to frighten us with these last two decades are nonsense.

The man-made global warming scare story has not a shred of scientific credibility. It's over. And while I don't expect the alarmists to admit this any time soon, I do think the rest of us should stop indulging them in their poisonous fantasy.  It's time to crush them instead.

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THE SAINTS WHO LOST PARADISE


Jamestown, St. Helena, South Atlantic Ocean. If you have ever heard of this little 47 square mile island lost in a vast sea, 1,200 miles west of Africa and 1,800 miles east of Brazil, it’s because here is where the British exiled Napoleon after Waterloo, and here is where he died.

The 5½ years of Napoleon’s exile – October 15, 1815 to his death on May 5, 1821 – dominate the island’s 500-year history. For the last 354 years, since 1659, it has been a British possession. Yet such is the grip of Napoleon that the Brits ceded the home and property of where he lived in exile on St. Helena – called Longwood House – to the government of France.

It is French territory, as is his original burial place nearby. Moreover, there is a Consul appointed by the French government, who lives in a diplomat’s mansion on the island.

Personally, I have no regard for a megalomaniac responsible for the deaths of millions of people. The Brits should have treated him as a war criminal, executed him by firing squad aboard a ship far out to sea, and dumped his body in the ocean.

But no. Instead...

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COMMENCEMENT 2009


[This commencement address was originally published four years ago. We  rerun it annually at college graduation time. Feel quite free to send this to any recent college graduate you may know.]

Mr. Chancellor, Members of the Board of Regents, Members of the Faculty, Honored Graduates, Families and Friends:

It's funny that they call this ceremony a Commencement, for you've all reached the finish line:  college, goodbye, we're outta here.  Yet of course, "commencement" means a beginning, not an end.

But one is supposed to at least start - commence - a talk such as this by saying funny things.  So I'll start by talking about Clark Gable movies.  If you've heard of Clark Gable at all, you know he was the biggest movie star in Hollywood a long time ago.  His most famous movie was Gone With The Wind.

He made a movie in 1955 called The Tall Men with Jane Russell as his girlfriend and Robert Ryan as the heavy.  It's a pretty ordinary Western flick with outlaws and cowboys and Indians - and at the end, Ryan, the bad guy, and his henchmen get the drop on Gable, the good guy, and all seems lost.  Suddenly, surprise, Gable outfoxes Ryan and triumphs.  Gable makes his exit, and after he does, Ryan delivers a line that I want you to never forget.

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MY SISTER AND THE FURRY BAROO


OK, this is a shameless plug.  It has nothing whatever to do with geopolitics, history, science, or whatever else we at TTP normally focus on.  My kid sister Judy has written a book - and it would just be wrong if I didn't tell you about it.

Judy teaches natural history at the Heard Museum near Dallas.  What that means is that her calling is teaching children to love nature and the critters you find in it.  Now she's written a book to impart that love for children everywhere.

Entitled Jessica The Furry Baroo, it's about a dog, Jessica, and her encounters in the woods with various wild things like skunks and snakes.  It's an entertaining and fun way for a young child to understand and appreciate them. 

The book is beautifully illustrated, has a story kids will really like, so if you know a young person under 12 you might consider it for them.  It's also a fun book to read aloud to a child too young to read themselves.

So - congratulations to Judy, my sister the author! 

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THE AFRICAN CHRISTIAN CRUSADE


Three years ago (November 2003) in The Chinese Christian Crusades, I told you about the program of Chinese Christians to evangelize the world's Moslems.

The program is called Back to Jerusalem  -- referring to the lands between China and Jerusalem (Central Asia and the Middle East) which are overwhelmingly Moslem.  Getting back to Jerusalem and the birthplace of Christianity means Chinese missionaries in these lands preaching the Gospel and saving Moslem souls for Christ.

Now the largest Christian movement in Africa has decided to do the same. 

From the other direction:  across the Moslem lands of North Africa and into Saudi Arabia itself.  The Saudis are about to find themselves inside an African-Chinese Christian sandwich.

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SOMEONE SHOULD TELL THE U.S. GOVERNMENT: IRAN IS AT WAR WITH US

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is dying of cancer. But he is convinced that his legacy will be glorious. He believes that thousands of his Revolutionary Guards intelligence officers effectively control southern Iraq, and that the rest of the country is at his mercy, since we present no challenge to them - even along the Iraq/Iran border, where they operate with impunity.

They calmly plan their next major assault without having to worry about American retribution. The mullahs have thousands of intelligence officers all over Iraq, as well as a hard core of Hezbollah terrorists - including the infamous Imad Mughniyah, arguably the region's most dangerous killer - and they control the major actors, from Zarqawi to Sadr to the Badr Brigades.

Khamenei and his top cronies believe they have effectively won. They think the U.S. is politically paralyzed, thanks to the relentless attacks of President Bush's Democrat opponents and the five-year long internal debate about Iran policy. 

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CLEANING UP THE REGISTRY

In an early column I discussed the Windows registry. It holds thousands, sometimes more than ten thousand settings. Some of these settings are for Windows itself, and others are for applications. As time passes, the registry becomes clogged with useless or erroneous entries. These can be left over from incomplete installations, incomplete uninstall routines. Many other problems arise. A user may move an application file without realizing that dozens of registry entries point to the old location. Application errors can leave traces in the registry. Malicious intruders as well, as I’ve discussed on several occasions.

When the registry goes bad your problems can vary from annoying to disastrous. The most common ailment is that the computer slows down. Another common problem is that clicking on shortcuts doesn’t start the program. Further down the scale, some programs won’t run at all. More disastrously still, Windows functions only work intermittently or not at all.

In the past I recommended Norton System Works. Its one step cleanup is good at setting some minor problems in the registry right. I suggested a utility called JV-16 for a thorough cleanup of the registry. JV-16 is no longer in business.

It’s time to choose a new registry cleaner.

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THE BREAKUP OF BRITAIN?


Powerful investors across the world have woken up to the possibility that Scotland may vote to break up the United Kingdom next week (9/18), with some already preparing defensive action that risks a potentially dangerous flight from sterling and Britain's bond market.

Japan's biggest bank, Nomura, has advised clients to slash financial exposure to the UK and brace for a possible collapse of the pound after polls showed the independence campaign running neck and neck, warning that the separation of England and Scotland after more than 300 years would be a "cataclysmic shock."

Stephen Jen, head of SLJ Macro Partners and a Chinese-speaker from Taiwan, said Asian investors are flabbergasted by the sight of an ancient and successful union tearing itself apart for no obvious reason. "It is totally bizarre. They simply don't understand it, and nor do I. Until a week and half ago everybody thought there was a zero probability of Scotland voting Yes," he said.

"We have always assumed the United Kingdom would stay united, but now everything we thought about the UK has suddenly been tested, and will have to be repriced."

Simon Derrick, from Bank of New York Mellon, said the UK is leveraged to global financial cycle and has become a magnet for the "carry trade", sucking in funds from Japan, the Middle East and other regions searching for yield.

Mr. Derrick said a 15% plunge in sterling is "quite conservative" given the dangers of a messy divorce. "We think the high $1.40s against the dollar is entirely feasible. People always underestimate how far sterling can fall when the tide turns," he said.

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IS THE WORLD HEADED DOWNHILL?


There are many signs that the world may be headed for a new economic slump, or worse. Which countries are best positioned to weather such a downturn and which are not?

Countries that have been fiscally responsible in the recent past are for the most part in better fiscal shape than those that have not, because they have a larger safety cushion.

In the table below, I have ranked countries (the major economies, plus two good examples -- Chile and Switzerland) on three fiscal variables. The first one is the net of their growth rate and deficit for 2013 (i.e., growth rate minus deficit). For most of the major countries, their deficits were greater than their rate of economic growth, giving them a net negative number.

The other variables I listed are government spending as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), and government gross debt as a percentage of GDP. Lower levels of government spending are associated with higher rates of economic growth and vice versa.

So, which countries may make it, and which ones may not?

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