RED WAVE ON THE HORIZON
According to most published polls, Democrats have a 50-50 (or better) chance to win control of the House of Representatives, while Republican gains in the Senate likely will be minimal.
The signs on the ground, electoral history, and logic say something very different.
Thanks to early voting (walk-in and absentee), 35 to 40 percent of all votes in most states will be cast before election day.
According to polls, Senate races in Florida, Arizona, Indiana and Montana are nail biters. But Republicans are crushing Democrats in early voting in Florida, Arizona and (especially) in Indiana and Montana. This is yuge, because in every election before this, Democrats “won” early voting, typically by large margins.
The other big sign is the phenomenon of the Trump rally. There has never been anything like this. The president is drawing enormous, enthusiastic crowds wherever he goes. People who line up eight hours or more before a rally are highly likely to vote. Zero, by contrast, can’t fill high school gyms in deep blue territory.
So here’s why polls differ from reality.















