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HALF-FULL REPORT 08/06/10


Relax.  Close your eyes, take a deep breath, then another, think of a beautiful sunset and the smell of an ocean breeze.  If it's not too early - the sun is over the yard-arm somewhere - pour yourself three fingers of your favorite adult libation.  It's going to be okay.

True enough, parts of the world around you went even more nuts this week.  A left-wing looney with contempt for the Constitution became a Supreme Court Justice.  A left-wing limp-wrist judge with contempt for the very basis of what makes us human and for millions of his state's voters forces his homosexuality upon us all.

Yet there's also good news, good judicial news.  While Judge "Swish" Walker was emasculating Prop 8, the California Supreme Court upheld Prop 209 - 6 to 1! - this week (8/02) which bans "affirmative action," i.e., preferential treatment of women and minorities in public school admissions, government hiring and contracting.

The Left took a real hit on this one.  Yet that wasn't the only one, for on that same day (8/02) the Left suffered a double-whammy when US District Judge Henry Hudson refused to dismiss the State of Virginia's suit against ObamaCare on the grounds of unconstitutionality.

This, potentially, is a much bigger deal than banning affirmative action.  Here's why...

Read more...

DOES THE CONSTITUTION EXIST FOR THE IRS?


Over the last two weeks, the rule of law has been strengthened in a couple of major cases, one in the United States and one in Switzerland, but has been undermined in an action - surprise, surprise - by the IRS.

On Jan. 22, a Swiss court upheld the rule of law by saying that an agreement between the U.S. and Swiss governments to turn over UBS files on private bank clients to U.S. authorities violated Swiss law.

Switzerland has different laws than the United States regarding financial privacy and what parts of the tax law are felonies and which are not. Just because the Swiss law is different does not make it inferior to U.S. law. (In fact, Switzerland has direct democracy and a very long tradition of upholding human rights.) The United States considers it a felony not to file a W-9 tax form, while the Swiss do not consider the failure to file the appropriate form a felony.

An IRS official said, "We expect the Swiss government to continue to honor the terms of the agreement" - despite the agreement having been deemed unlawful. Of course, the IRS has a long tradition of ignoring the law and the Constitution when it suits its purposes.

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NOTO PATRIOTISM AND THE GSY REVOLUTION


It's Wednesday morning here in Washington D.C., January 21, 2009.  Tell me, did something unusual happen here yesterday?  I heard there was some kind of ruckus on the Mall near the Capitol, some kind of circus - but there weren't any elephants, and what's a circus without any elephants?

There were a lot of jackasses instead, somebody said.  Anyway, I was writing all day, working on my novel, The Jade Steps, and wasn't paying attention.  Well, I did take a break and turn on the TV - to watch a Clark Gable-Ava Gardner classic, Mogambo.

Evidently, I learned, some guy, nobody knows who he really is, with a goofy name and big goofy ears was giving a speech full of fluffy puffy cliché-ridden platitudes and nothing else.  I enjoyed my movie.

Yep, I was adhering to my motto:  If you can't beat them - ignore them.  Or tell them GSY.  We'll get to that in a moment.

For these are the only two ways to cope with the terrifyingly deranged glorification of Zero. 

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DON’T SQUANDER SYRIA


Amidst the many dangers posed by the political conflagration now engulfing the Arab world, we are presented with a unique opportunity in Syria.

Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, like his father from whom he inherited the regime, is an unadulterated rogue.  He is an illicit nuclear proliferator, has a large stockpile of chemical weapons including Sarin gas and blister agents, and is a major sponsor of terrorism.

If the Assad regime is overthrown, it will constitute a major blow to both the Iranian regime and Hezbollah. In turn, Lebanon's March 14 Democracy Movement and the Iranian Green Movement will be empowered by the defeat.  This is an opportunity we dare not squander.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 07/30/10


Growing up as a teenage California surfer in the late 50s/early 60s, my favorite music was Surf Rock.  The record we all loved the most then is the one that keeps reverberating in my head now with little more than 90 days to go until November 2nd.

In 1962, five kids from Glendora High School (Jim Fuller, Bob Berryhill, Ron Wilson, Jim Pash, and Pat Connolly) called themselves The Surfaris, and talked the owner of a small recording studio in Cucamonga, Dale Smallin, into recording a song of theirs called Surfer Joe.

Needing something for the throw-away "B-side" of the 45 record, Ron Wilson started blasting away on the drums while Jim Fuller went wild with surf guitar riffs.  Dale Smallin decided for a gag to start it off with his crazy Witch Laugh cackle.  They named it after what happens to a surfer when a giant wave crashes on his head.

Here it is now, the greatest surf music ever played - and it should be the theme song for what's going to happen to Democrats this fall:

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WHY HIGHER DEFICITS CAUSE HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT


"So what?" is the implicit expression of much of the Washington political class when it comes to spending and taxing. The consequences of Washington's fiscal irresponsibility are not evident to many in the media and electorate - yet. But the pain will come - and it will hit almost every American.

Last week, I explained how government deficits are strangling necessary capital formation. The following describes the impact on job creation and growth, and next week, I will present a way out of the mess.

This past week, the White House claimed that the stimulus bill "saved 2 million jobs," but just before the stimulus bill was passed, the administration said the unemployment rate would peak at 8 percent with the stimulus bill and 9 percent without it.

Now, we have both the stimulus bill and an unemployment rate of more than 10 percent, which shows that the White House is developmentally challenged when it comes to basic arithmetic.

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AMERICAN SILHOUETTE


Reflecting upon what lies ahead for America in 2009, I'm tempted to think of Al Jolson, and his famous quote, "You ain't seen nothin' yet."  But I'd rather think of Madame Pompadour.

Jeanne-Antoinette Poisson, Marquess de Pompadour (1721-1764), was the royal mistress of King Louis XV of France (1710-1774).  She ended up running Louis' government.

So much so that when Frederick II of Prussia intemperately called the Empress of Russia (Czarina Elizaveta Petrovna), Holy Roman Empress Maria Theresa of Austria, and Madame Pompadour "the three first whores of Europe," she engineered a war:  an alliance of France, Austria, and Russia against Prussia.

The Seven Years' War bankrupted France.  So Pompadour did what all governments do with a fiscal crisis:  raise taxes, and punitively.  In 1759, she had Etienne de Silhouette, known for his writings on England's financial system, appointed controller-general of finance. 

For eight months he ravaged France with such rapacious taxation that everyone from nobles to wealthy merchants to peasants bitterly complained that they reduced to mere shadows of their former selves.  By the time Pompadour was forced to fire him, an inexpensive art form had caught on, a shadow of one's profile cut out from black paper.  They were called silhouettes.

France never recovered from her loss of empire and wealth, yet her rulers continued to lavish money upon themselves while the people were ground into further penury - until the latter exploded with the French Revolution and the former led to the guillotine.

So now comes a question as we step into the unknown of 2009:  will Barack Hussein Obama be the American Silhouette?

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PREPARING FOR ARMAGEDDON


In response to Jack's article last week, A Tsunami of Insanity, in which he described the Financial Armageddon bearing down upon us, I was asked on the TTP Forum:

"OK, Skye, do you have a list of things you are doing to prepare for the storm?"

Yes, I do. I'll be discussing this in detail at the Las Vegas Rendezvous, but here are a few of the high points:

*Don't live in a city. A small town in a small county will be much safer - so long as the town and county aren't populated with a lot of Progressives.

Check the voting data for both the town and the county. A small conservative/libertarian town in a low population gold mining county will do relatively well as the dollar depreciates. A town where 40% of the income is dependent on the continuation of corn ethanol subsidies would be a very risky location, no matter how rural.

Read more...

HALF-FULL REPORT 07/23/10


Psalms 23:5.  That's what comes to mind this week.  Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over.

There will be weeks when our cup is bone dry.  This week is not one of them, for truly, our cup is running over the top.

We start with the death of the Great New Cause of the Left, its substitute for Marxism as a rationale for control of everyone's life, Warmism.

Its insufferably sanctimonious champion had the final nail driven into his reputation's coffin Wednesday (7/21), as two more women came forward with rape-abuse charges.  Algore is belly up.

That came on the heels of one of the liberal media's most prominent mouthpieces, Newsweek, declaring (7/12) The Green Retreat - that Warmism is over as a major political force.

Confirmation came yesterday (7/22), with Reid and Kerry throwing in the Cap and Trade towel.  As the Wall Street Journal reported:

"Senate Democratic leaders Thursday shelved their effort to cap greenhouse-gas emissions as part of a broad energy bill, putting aside indefinitely a centerpiece of President Barack Obama's ambitious effort to transform the way Americans produce and consume energy."

That should make any freedom-lover's week. But there's so much more.

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OUR FUTURE OF HIGHER INFLATION AND SLOWER GROWTH


Even though the government is running massive deficits, interest rates and inflation are low. So, what's the problem? The following discussion will clarify the problem.

The United States is now in a situation in which the government is taking a very large share (40 percent) of the nation's savings to finance its deficit spending, leaving a diminished pool of capital to meet the needs of both families and businesses.

You might be thinking, if there are not enough savings available for investment needs, why are interest rates so low? The answer is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been creating money by loaning the banks nearly free money and buying mortgages from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Soon, as even the Fed acknowledges, it will have to start selling the mortgages it owns to private parties and increase short-term interest rates to avoid saddling the country with high inflation. In sum, inflation cannot be avoided without a big increase in both long- and short-term interest rates.

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ARABIC PEACE


No word is more overused and has less meaning than "peace" regarding any discussion of Arabs and Israel.   

One primary reason why "peace in the Middle East" (if you Google that phrase you'll get 1.5 million hits) is so elusive is because there is no word in Arabic that means the same thing as the English word "peace," or its equivalent in other European languages.

So as Israel is trying to put an end to Hamas terrorism and the world media whimpers for "peace in Gaza," we should get a clear understanding of the Arabic words - there are three of them - translated as "peace."

It's an understanding that Hillary's husband lacked when brokering the Oslo Accords of 1993, that Hillary's predecessor at the State Department lacked in her endlessly pointless efforts, that Hillary's new boss will lack when he instructs her to negotiate an Arab-Israeli "peace treaty."

None of the three Arabic words for "peace" mean what we mean - but one of them could come close if nailed down explicitly.  They are salaam, hudna, and suhl.

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EUROPE’S SUPPORT FOR PALESTINIAN TERRORISM


What are we to make of the fact that no one has taken credit for Wednesday’s (3/23) Central Bus Station bombing in Jerusalem?

Wednesday’s bombing was not a stand-alone event. It was part and parcel of the new Palestinian terror war that is just coming into view. As Israel considers how to contend with the emerging onslaught, it is important to notice how it differs from its predecessors.

For both Fatah and Hamas, the most important target audience is Europe.  Fatah, for example, is in the midst of a global campaign to build international support for a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence in September.

The fact that Fatah and Hamas have neither waited until after September to attack nor sought to differentiate themselves from one another as the attacks coalesce into a new terror campaign indicates strongly that the Palestinians no longer feel they need to pretend to oppose terror to maintain European support for their war against Israel.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 07/16/10


Last week (7/08) in This Is No Accident, Comrades, we discussed this possibility:

"Our country is faced with an impending economic catastrophe, a Second Great Depression.  It is being brought about on purpose by a political party that cares only for keeping and expanding its power, and looks upon prosperity as a threat to that power.

That party is now being threatened with being thrown out of power.  If that party is evil enough and fascist enough to cause an economic catastrophe, it is certainly evil and fascist enough to cause a physical catastrophe, an Ultimate October Surprise, that will frighten and enrage voters enough to preserve its power in November.

What could this be?  The most likely would be another 9/11, a massively horrific terrorist attack, perhaps even nuclear."
This week (7/13), the London Financial Times interviewed a key power-broker of the Democrat Party, Robert Shapiro,  Clinton's Undersecretary of Commerce and founder of the hyper-liberal Progressive Policy Institute, on Democrat prospects in November.  Here's the money quote:
"The bottom line here is that Americans don't believe in President Obama's leadership. He has to find some way between now and November of demonstrating that he is a leader who can command confidence and, short of a 9/11 event or an Oklahoma City bombing, I can't think of how he could do that."
Did you just say, OMG? 

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A CENTURY OF EVIDENCE: GOVERNMENT GROWS, MARKETS FALL AND VICE VERSA


The long-term outlook for the stock market is not good, and here is why.

For the past 100 years, there has been an inverse relationship between changes in the size of government and the growth or decline in the stock market.  The accompanying chart clearly shows the inverse relationship between the direction of the size of government and stock market performance.

The Stock Market and Government Spending
Time Period Change in Government Spending as Percentage Share of GDP Stock Market Percentage Change in Real Dollars
1910-1919
+21.6 points -53%
1919-1929 -20.5 points +206%
1929-1945
+44.2 points
-48%
1945-1953 -26.8 points +30%
1953-1965
-4.6 points
+180%
1965-1982
+6.5 points
-55%
1982-2000 -4.6 points
+579%
2000-2009
+9.7 points
-66%

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DRIVING IN CHINA

When you hear the word "China," if you're like most people the picture most likely to appear in your mind's eye is vast uncountable hordes of people. I've got a different picture, having bounced along so many thousands of kilometers of bad Chinese roads: no people at all.

China is almost half a million square miles bigger than the continental US (the contiguous 48 states without Alaska/Hawaii) - and it is amazing how much of it is desert or high mountain plateaus where hardly anybody lives. And I mean no one, as in empty. I'd estimate that more than half, upwards of two-thirds of China is virtually uninhabited.

That means cramming 1.3 billion people into an area less than one-third of the continental US. People who have made a deal with their Chicom leaders: you get to keep political control and we get to prosper in a growing economy. The deal breaks down if the economy falters - and it is faltering fast.

The engine of China's economy - her exports that we buy - is in steep decline, foreign direct investment is down 36% for 2008, scores of millions of peasants who had found work in cities are now unemployed and headed back to their bleak villages.

China is in trouble - and when dictatorships get in trouble, history shows the option they most often choose to try and save themselves is war. Will China - or will it opt for the alternative that geopolitics is now providing, to take America's place as protector and peacemaker?

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