THE RESPONSIBLE, THE TIMID, AND THE UGLY
With apologies to Clint Eastwood, we're facing a real-life version of his famous movie that could be entitled The Responsible, The Timid, and The Ugly.
For the past year, the Federal Reserve has been the largest single purchaser of U.S. government securities, buying well more than half of all new debt. The Fed calls this program quantitative easing (QE2), or what normal people would call printing money. The Fed has stated that this program will stop in June. Who is going to purchase all of the new government debt when the Fed stops?
The Chinese and other foreign holders of U.S. government debt are well aware of the increasing probability of higher U.S. inflation and the corresponding further decline in the dollar. Since September, the Chinese have been gradually reducing their holdings of U.S. government securities (i.e., becoming net sellers). The Japanese had been net buyers of U.S. government debt, but they also will now likely become net sellers as they will need funds for rebuilding.
Again, who will fill the Treasury bond-buying gap left by the withdrawal of the Fed, the Chinese and the Japanese?