This morning (01/07), 12 people, including two policemen, have been murdered in Paris at the offices of French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo by two hooded men wielding AK47s and shouting "Allahu akbar! We are avenging the honor of Prophet Mohammed!"

In 2011 the magazine was firebombed after running a caricature of Islam's founder. Charlie Hebdo's most recent tweet, before the latest attack, was a cartoon featuring the leader of Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Here's what will happen next.

1. French authorities will urge the public not to jump to any unhelpful conclusions about the motivation of the killers.

2. Politicians, police chiefs and mainstream media reports will urge restraint over what is clearly an inexplicable rogue incident which may have nothing whatsoever to do with the Religion of Peace.

3. Extensive - and largely fruitless - efforts will be made to find Moslem community leaders prepared to speak out against the incident.

4. Liberal commentators will take pains to draw a distinction between Islamism and Islam, noting that the former is a malign perversion of the latter which, as any informed person knows, explicitly forbids the murder of innocents.

5...

[This commencement address was originally published in 2005. We rerun it at college graduation time. Feel quite free to send this to any recent college graduate you may know.]

Mr. Chancellor, Members of the Board of Regents, Members of the Faculty, Honored Graduates, Families and Friends:

It's funny that they call this ceremony a Commencement, for you've all reached the finish line:  college, goodbye, we're outta here.  Yet of course, "commencement" means a beginning, not an end.

But one is supposed to at least start - commence - a talk such as this by saying funny things.  So I'll start by talking about Clark Gable movies.  If you've heard of Clark Gable at all, you know he was the biggest movie star in Hollywood a long time ago.  His most famous movie was Gone With The Wind.

He made a movie in 1955 called The Tall Men with Jane Russell as his girlfriend and Robert Ryan as the heavy.  It's a pretty ordinary Western flick with outlaws and cowboys and Indians - and at the end, Ryan, the bad guy, and his henchmen get the drop on Gable, the good guy, and all seems lost. 

Suddenly, surprise, Gable outfoxes Ryan and triumphs.  Gable makes his exit, and after he does, Ryan delivers a line that I want you to never forget.

Serendipity is funny, a very funny thing, finding something where you least expect it.  Out of the blue, out of a movie awash with pedestrian dialogue, comes a line so profound it detonates inside your brain. Ryan turns to his men and says:

Perhaps the most troublesome question that investors and business decision makers confront today is, "When will significant inflation and interest rate increases show up?"

The next quarter, the next year, the next decade? Everyone fears these, but no one can predict exactly when they will appear. Investment is severely hampered by this uncertainty. The potential inflationary/interest rate pressures exist largely as a result of Fed's massive purchase of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

But much of this increase in money is locked up in the banks because the Fed now pays interest on the bank reserves held at the Fed (and therefore it is not lent or spent), because of increased regulatory restrictions that discourage banks from making loans to small businesses and consumers, and because of the lack of demand for new loans. In addition, many individuals and businesses are holding unusually high sums to weather regulatory and economic uncertainties.

Yet, there are many factors that could trigger inflationary/interest rate increases that are largely out of the Fed's ability to forecast and control.

Last month, in Food Crisis and Opportunity,  we talked about the coming global crisis in food production.  Next month as promised, I, along with my wife Rebel, Alex Alexiev, and Joel Wade, are going lead 20 TTPers to Bulgaria to learn how to profit from the crisis.

I fell in love with Bulgaria when I was first there as the Soviet empire was collapsing in early 1990. 

There's thousands of years of history - Bronze Age tribes, the Ancient Greeks, the Romans, medieval Christian kingdoms, hidden monasteries protecting Christianity from centuries of Moslem oppression by the Ottoman Turks, finally gaining independence in 1908 only to lose it to the Soviet Union during World War II, and now free at last.

And all through this, Bulgarians forged and kept a Christian culture and heritage.  People come from all over the world to visit the extraordinary monasteries such as Rila or Ivanovo (World Heritage Sites, we'll visit both) the Bulgarians built to preserve their culture from Moslem imperialism.

Even more visitors - hordes in the height of the summer - come to vacation on the gorgeous beaches of Bulgaria's Black Sea coast.  In the winter, skiers flock to ski resorts high in the Balkan mountains.

It's a country of such profusion of flowers everywhere there's an entire valley called the Valley of Roses.  You couldn't ask for a more hospitable warm-hearted people - or ask for a better way to be shown hospitality, for Bulgarians really know how to make good wine and are more than happy to share a glass with you at every opportunity.

And speaking of opportunity... Bulgaria is so fertile it's known as The Land Without Famine, and the agricultural opportunities are truly extraordinary.  That's what we'll be focusing on - while taking time for adventure, exploration and fun.  Here's the itinerary: