OBAMA’S FATAL CONCEIT IS THE CAUSE OF HIS FAILED PRESIDENCY
Would you have traded five terrorists for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl?
The decision may have been wrong or right, but what is striking is that President Obama seems to have made this decision, and all too many others, in an ad hoc way, rather than using decision theory.
Decision theory is an orderly way of thinking and choosing among alternatives when there is a number of variables for which the probabilities of each may or may not be known to the decision-maker. It's the opposite of Mr. Obama's thought process.
Politicians and criminals both have a tendency to underestimate the probability of getting caught in bad acts. Is it because few studied decision theory or because there is a certain recklessness in the nature of those who follow such pursuits?
Obviously it's the latter in Mr. Obama's case, who suffers from what is known as The Fatal Conceit.
