PUTIN’S HOLLOWED-OUT HOMELAND
History is full of instances where a rising power, aggrieved and dissatisfied, acts aggressively to obtain new borders or other international concessions. In Russia today we see a much more unusual case: This increasingly menacing and ambitious geopolitical actor is a state in decline.
Notwithstanding Russia's nuclear arsenal and its vast territories, the distinguishing feature of the country today is its striking economic underdevelopment and weakness.
For all Russia's oil and gas, the country's international sales of goods and services last year only barely edged out Belgium's - and were positively dwarfed by the Netherlands'.
While Russia's childbearing patterns today look entirely European, its mortality patterns look Third World - and in some ways worse. According to estimates by the World Health Organization, a 15-year-old youth has worse survival chances today in Russia than in 33 of the 48 places the United Nations designates as "least developed countries," including such impoverished locales as Mali, Yemen and even Afghanistan.
Russia's "high education, low human capital" paradox also shows up in Russia's extreme "knowledge production" deficit. Long-term economic progress depends on improving productivity through new knowledge - but this is something Russia appears mysteriously unable to do.
In the modern era, the ultimate source of national wealth and power is not natural resources: It is human resources. And unfortunately for Russia, its human-resource situation is almost unrelievedly dismal - with worse likely in the years to come.