DO NOT BET THE FARM ON PUTIN IN SYRIA
Who’s winning the Middle East war? It’s never an easy question to answer, even for the most skilled and informed analysts. Things rarely, very rarely, go the way we expect. Hence “the fog of war.”
The most famous case of a military commander who got it right is Napoleon at Austerlitz, when he seems to have told his men precisely how the battle would go, hour by hour and move by move. It so impressed Hegel that he proclaimed the French general a “world-historical figure.”
Waterloo didn’t follow that template, thereby making my point. It behooves us to maintain a healthy skepticism about likely outcomes.
If you had to bet, you’d probably wager that Putin and Khamenei are solid favorites in Syria. Yet shoring up Assad, which is the Iranian-Russian mission, is no easy task. Russian and Iranian casualties are mounting and in some key areas they are in retreat from “rebels.” Consider this current battlefield report:



