HOW CAN AMERICA AND CHINA SUPPORT A WORLD OF DEBT?
Equity investors across the world are positioned for the nirvana of synchronized and accelerating global expansion led by China and the US.
What they may instead get is a synchronized Sino-American slap in the face. Analysts at UBS say the international credit impulse has already "collapsed". The two economic superpowers are both tightening policy into an approaching storm.
There has been a steady drip-drip of hard facts that support the fears. The $12.5 trillion market for US bank credit has sputtered out, for example, with flat growth over the last three months. Commercial and industrial loans are falling at the fastest rate since the Lehman crisis.
The latest Chinese mini-boom has been a wonder to behold. We can now see that the authorities panicked after the economy hit a wall in early 2015. They abandoned reform and reverted to extreme debt creation, pushing corporate debt to 171% of GDP.
The key question the world must face now is where the pain threshold lies for a dollarized global system that is more leveraged than at any time in market history. The Institute of International Finance says global debt has reached $217 trillion, a record ratio of 325% of world GDP.












