THE FED IS TRAPPED
Interest rates in the United States have fallen to minus 2% in real terms and are dropping into deeper negative territory with each passing month. This is a remarkable state of affairs.
It is clear that the US Federal Reserve is now trapped. The FOMC dares not tighten despite core inflation reaching 2.3% because it is so worried about tantrums in financial markets and about that other Sword of Damocles - some $11 trillion of offshore debt denominated in dollars, up from $2 trillion in 2000.
The Fed has been forced by circumstances to act as the world's central bank, nursing a fragile and treacherous financial system struggling with unprecedented leverage.
Average debt ratios are 36 percentage points of GDP higher than they were at the top of the pre-Lehman bubble in 2008, and this time emerging markets have been drawn into the quagmire as well by the spill-over effects of quantitative easing. Like it or not, the Fed is stuck with the task of cleaning up a global mess that is arguably of its own making.
The three big blocs of the world economy are all in a short-term cyclical upswing. My fear is that the Fed may have repeated the error made by Alan Greenspan during the East Asia crisis of 1998 when he slashed rates and held them too low for too long, fueling the dotcom bubble.


On one hand, I can understand the sentiment. I myself have often quoted Emiliano Zapata’s famous line “Better to die on your feet, than live on your knees” and it doesn’t necessarily mean I know much about Zapata (which I don’t), much less whether I would have agreed with him about much else.
