Sometimes, major historical shifts are virtually invisible.
That’s what just happened in India, and it upends 80 years of geopolitical calculus.
80 years is a very, very long time.
So here’s what happened. The Indian Ministry of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter) that the Indian Navy has been carrying out raids and capturing Shadow Fleet vessels in India's Exclusive Economic Zone, starting on February 5th. About an hour later, someone deleted the post.
Hardly anyone noticed: Peter Zeihan, me, a handful of others.
But then Reuters and the Wall Street Journal (neither of which gave it serious coverage) confirmed the key details. It’s really happening, in the plural.
Why should you care? A little background will help.
India, Our Old Frenemy
India’s mythology is independence. Its identity since independence has been that it bows to no one. It has been reinforced for decades by a justifiable civilizational confidence: poor though it may be, India is not Belgium. India is a continental-sized power. It doesn’t “join blocs.” Blocs join it.
India founded the “Non-Aligned Movement” at the beginning of the Cold War, a mostly anti-American, mostly pro-Soviet group led through the years by such paragons of freedom and democracy as Josip Broz Tito, Gamal Abdel Nasser, both Fidel and Raül Castro, Robert Mugabe, and perhaps my current favorite, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
It’s also a founding member of BRICS (it’s the “I”), the transparently anti-U.S. alliance that will surely displace us, replace the dollar, blah blah blah.
And that’s the thing: for all its talk of “nonalignment,” India has always been all too aligned.
Read more...