A brand new year.  Is it time for predictions?  OK, here's one you can count on.  There will be a whiteness of Black Swans.

Yes, a "whiteness" is the collective noun for swans, even when they are black (the subspecies Cygnus atratus in Australia).  These days, a capitalized "Black Swan" refers not to a bird but an event - something that comes sailing into history right out of the blue and bites us right in the tuches.

The worst, most negative Black Swan in modern American history continues in 2015 - the Zero Presidency.  Interestingly, the Curse of Zero will test my next prediction:  that whatever and how many Black Swans bite the world this year, America will sustain them - even triumph over them - better than anywhere else.

Now why would that be?...

It's also time to introduce a new feature in the HFR.  Most every week, I'll try to include a useful tip on health & fitness.  None of us are getting progressively younger, but we can all do any number of things to slow our progress down in the opposite direction.  Here's the HFR's first entry...

We're going to close with... Perspective Time.  Just to make you feel good.

Whom do you work for? Such a simple question should not require a government agency to give an answer.

However, the Obama administration, in its never-ending quest for power over individuals and businesses, has decided that it -- rather than you or your employer -- should determine whom you work for.

Last Thursday (11/20), the Senate held a hearing for President Obama's nominee for the National Labor Relations Board, Lauren McFerran, after the administration abruptly withdrew the nomination of the tainted Sharon Block for the same post.

The National Labor Relations Board has the responsibility to be an unbiased referee in disputes between labor unions and management and to make sure that U.S. labor regulations are followed. As union membership has fallen from more than a third of the labor force in the 1950s to a 97-year low of 6.7 percent of the private labor force this year, the NLRB is not as relevant as it was in decades past.

However, like most government bureaucracies, the people at the board are looking for ways to expand their mission -- and their budget and power. The Obama administration, rather than seeking out people who would be impartial to serve on the board, has selected people with strong ties to unions.  There is no doubt whatever that Lauren McFerran is one of them.

When you get to know people, you are, in part, building a reputation with each other. "What kind of person is he?" "How does she handle a difficult situation?" "What kind of attitude does he bring to his work?" "How does she respond to confrontation or adversity?"

Over time, we learn whether a given person is honest, whether they can be relied upon, how playful they are, to what degree their actions reflect what they say. We get a sense of their style, their likes, and their dislikes.

Here is a piece that is often missing: We watch ourselves just like we watch others, and we develop a reputation with ourselves accordingly.
 
This is the essence of earned self-esteem.  Here's how to increase yours.

This Tuesday, November 27, a weird full-page ad appeared in The Washington Times directly targeting conservatives.  Its headline in big bold print:  U.S.-Russia:  Toward a political, economic and military alliance.

It was paid for by an outfit called america-russia.net.  It's not clear if these folks are on the KGB payroll, but they might as well be. 

They seem to be the same group of Blame America First Conservatives I wrote about back in July of '05:  the folks at American Conservative and antiwar.com infected with the disease of Anti-Semitism, who hate Israel more than they love America, who root for America's defeat in Iraq.

Now they're rooting for the KGB Billionaire Mafia that runs Russia.

Last February, you learned that Putin is The World's Richest and Most Dangerous Gangster, the most corrupt ruler in world history, having accumulated a personal fortune of over 20 billion dollars - and control over thousands of nukes.

You also learned that Bush and Cheney were contemplating exposing Putin's billionaire corruption.  There's been a lot of debate in the White House about this, but it looks like the first salvo has finally been fired.

The leader of the strangers stood underneath the big ceiba tree he had slashed with his sword. He addressed the sub-chiefs assembled in front of him through the stranger who spoke Maya.

“I come to you from the greatest king in the world, His Majesty Don Carlos of Spain. The mighty country of Spain lies on the other side of the Great Ocean, and we have crossed it to trade peacefully with you and to instruct you in the religion of the One True God.

“His Majesty Dos Carlos commands us to come in peace, yet you attacked us and tried to kill us for no reason. We do not understand why you attacked us, but you must understand that if you try to attack us again we will kill you. You saw yesterday the power of our lightning-bearers. The lightning-bearers are still angry with you, and it is hard for us to control the death-fire they carry in their bellies…”

Without warning, one of the huge metal tubes lined up on the edge of the square went off with an enormous explosion and belch of fire. No one was hurt, but just the same, Malinali fell to the ground terrified like all the sub-chiefs, who proceeded to call out to the strangers’ leader asking his forgiveness for their aggression and disobedience.

If something drops out of the news, it usually means it is going well. 

Mad cow disease killed nobody last year. Mozambique and Angola are growing their economies at a furious lick. There were only two localized famines last year - in South Sudan and the Central African Republic - both caused by conflict, rather than drought or population pressure.

That's because the feeding of the world is going so well it's not news.

New figures from the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization show that the world's cereal harvest, which provides more than half of the calories that humans eat, broke a new record last year at 2.54 billion tons - an astonishing 20 per cent higher than ten years ago.

Thanks to better techniques and seeds, the world's farmers (of which I declare I am one, in a mostly hands-off way) have provided a growing population with more food per head, year after year, largely without cultivating extra land or using extra water or chemicals.

Corn, rice and wheat - the big three cereals - each broke records in 2014. So why do we hear frequent cries that the world soon will be or is already struggling to feed itself?

Welcome to the Last Half-Full Report... of 2014.  Next week we begin a whole new year, so let's say goodbye to this old one.  Should we also say good riddance?

This being the HFR, the judgment should be, well, at least a bit more half-full than half-empty.  Before we start, however, first a thank you.  That would be for all the kind comments, both on the Forum and by personal email, regarding Revolutionary Constitutionalism and Declarations of Defiance (published on Christmas Eve, 12/24).

One comment by email from a long-time TTPer and dear friend was truly humbling...

Now, what's half-full around here?  Looking around the world, 2014 was way more than just half-full for India.  And the best news for us and much of the world is the worst for the jerks of the world (e.g., the governments of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela).  There's other good news as well -- and news from an elite US college that's morally evil.

Plus a video of the HFR Hero of the Week that will make you cheer and laugh your head off at the same time...

The only surprising thing about Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber's revelations that the legislation was based on a series of lies and voter stupidity was that Mr. Gruber was so stupid to think no one would see the videos of him saying so.

The good news is that, perhaps, many more Americans will wake up to the fact that Obamacare is not the only hoax they have been subjected to, and will be much more skeptical about policy experts' snake oil. Most of these schemes increase the power and money flowing to the political class and their "experts," while robbing the pocketbooks and liberties of the people.

The great economist F.A. Hayek (1899-1992) argued there was a limit to what any one person or even groups of people could know, which was one reason socialist planning always failed. His 1974 Nobel Prize lecture ended with the following sentence: