CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC COSTS OF A WAR OVER TAIWAN
Taiwan is now a geopolitical hotspot. Bloomberg Economics assesses the global economic impact of a war over Taiwan at $10 trillion – dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine or the COVID-19 pandemic.
Some nations are trying economically and militarily to deter China from reunifying Taiwan by force. In fact, the best deterrent is to make China aware of the potentially unbearable demographic consequences of war.
On February 29, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released population figures for 2023, with only 9.02 million births and a fertility rate of only 1.0, far less than the official forecast of 15.5 million and the fewest births since 1762, when the total population was just 200 million.
Last year, China officially acknowledged that its population shrank in 2022 for the first time in 60 years, nine years earlier than government projections had anticipated.
The implications of these datapoints are hard to overstate. This means that China’s demographic crisis is far worse than expected. As a result, all of China’s economic, foreign, and defense policies are based on faulty demographic data.
This is the fortress town of Shatili in an extremely remote Caucasus region in Georgia called Khevsureti. It was built by the Crusaders 1,000 years ago. The Khevsur people who live here trace their ancestry back to these Crusaders and until the 1930s still wore chain mail in feud-battles with other towns. I took this picture in 1991.














