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TRUMP IN TAIWAN

tsai-ing-wen
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen

The 10-minute telephone conversation between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. president-elect Donald J. Trump on December 2  was the first such conversation between a sitting president in Taiwan and a U.S. president or president-elect since Washington broke official diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979.

The reactions ranged worldwide, from consternation at Trump’s breaking with longstanding policy to hopes for deeper relations between the United States and the democratic island nation.

Most analysis of the call overlooks a crucial component: Tsai’s own calculations and the domestic reaction on Taiwan.  That’s what we’ll discuss here.

As is often the case, little effort was made to analyze why Taiwan’s first female president, in office since May 20 and brought to power in January via democratic election, was willing to place a call that, if Trump picked up at the other end of the line, was certain to spark some controversy.

Even less was said about reactions in Taiwan, particularly its 23 million citizens, who far too often in the rare instances of international attention are denied a voice of their own – as if all of them were little more than insentient subjects to the implacable waves of history or the dictates of decision makers in Washington and Beijing.

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DYNAMIC TAX REFORM

dynamic-tax-reformDo you want tax reform? Now, for the difficult questions: What is your definition of tax reform? And what will be the consequences of each of your proposals?

One impediment to constructive tax reform is the very rules under which Congress operates.

Without getting into the complexities of the so-called budget “reconciliation” process, tax reform is limited by a requirement that tax reductions be “paid for” by other tax increases or spending cuts.

For decades, many of us have been in the battle to use “dynamic scoring” rather than “static scoring” in determining the “costs” of tax reduction.

Dynamic scoring is the attempt to look at the feedback effects of tax changes, such as the number of new jobs and, hence, taxable wages that would be created.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 12/09/16

trump-air-force-oneGetting tired of winning yet?  Hope not, ‘cause the show is just getting started. 

This morning (12/09), the Daily Mail reports in detail how Trump is exactly right in claiming Boeing’s cost for the new Air Force One is over $4 billion. 

Even CNBC News had to admit:  Trump’s Air Force One Tweet Was A Brilliant Move.

When I called Jack Kelly to thank him for the great HFR he wrote in my absence last week, he told me something I didn’t know – that Marine General and Defense Secretary-designate James “Mad Dog” Mattis has a huge bear rug lying in his living room.

“The thing is,” Jack tells me, “is that the bear isn’t dead – he’s just afraid to move.”

OK – we’re off!  The HFR is packed this week with good news you need to know.  Plus there’s a very important announcement at the end – and there’s the HFR Hero of the Year.  Here we go…

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THERE’S A NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN

pres-first-lady
The President and First Lady of the United States

What can you say to this picture, taken at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, except OMG?

A multi-billionaire President and the hottest First Lady in US history.  A billionaire who can’t be bought, can’t be intimidated, who’s flamboyantly proud of being a self-made capitalist, who refuses to apologize for his wealth, who genuinely loves his country and is determined to defend it, who knows just what it takes to create widespread prosperity with plentiful good jobs…

… and a wife that leaves the wife of every other leader on earth in the dust.  A First Lady so stunning that if she were standing next to a Ferrari (and you didn’t know who she was), you wouldn’t notice the car.

The focus so far is the impact Trump will have on America.  It’s time for that focus to go global.  There’s not only a new sheriff in town in America – there’s a new sheriff in town for the entire world.

As in so many Western movies, the job of the new sheriff is to rid the town of the corrupt old sheriff and his gang of bullies.  In the movies, this is normally done with bullets and fists.  They still have their place.  As Mad Dog Mattis says, “Some folks need killing” – like ISIS terrorists.  It’s why we have a military – why Trump will have a military of warriors instead of Obama’s transgenders.

For the most part, however, Trump will be a game-changer for America and the world on far deeper and foundational levels.  The first level will be economic, the second cultural, the third and deepest psychological.  It is going to be absolutely fascinating to watch how these unfold.

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THE FIVE LESSONS OF TRUMP

teachers-trumpWhat can Republicans learn from Trump’s victory? The biggest lesson is that the old way of politics is dead. McCain and Romney showed that twice. Now Trump has shown how Republicans can actually win.  Here are five ways.

1. Find Your Natural Base

The GOP is ashamed of its base. It doesn’t like being associated with the very voters who made 2016 happen. Its autopsy last time around searched for ways to leave the white working class behind.

There’s a party that did that. Their symbol is a jackass. They just lost big because they ran out of working class white voters.

The Democrats have tried to manufacture their base using immigration, victimhood politics and identity politics. The GOP has wasted far too much time trying to compete on the same playing field while neglecting its base.

Trump won by doing what the GOP could have done all along if its leadership hadn’t been too ashamed to talk to people it considered low class because they shop at WalMart.

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TRUMP TARGETS IRAN

endtheirandealIn the US and around the world, people are anxiously awaiting US President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of his choice to serve as secretary of state. There is no doubt that Trump’s choice for the position will tell us a great deal about the direction his foreign policy is likely to take.

But the fact is that we already have sufficient information to understand what his greatest focus will be.

Trump’s announcement last week that he has selected Marine General James Mattis to serve as his defense secretary is a key piece of the puzzle.

Mattis has a sterling reputation as a brilliant strategist and a sober-minded leader.  Yet, in 2013, Obama summarily removed Mattis from his command as head of the US Military’s Central Command  -- because of his opposition to Obama’s strategy of embracing Iran.

That opposition is part of why he’ll be Trump’s SecDef.  Trump is interested in ending the war that the forces of radical Islam started with the US not on September 11, 2001, but on November 4, 1979, with the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran.

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THE ITALIAN JOB

matteo-renzi
Matteo Renzi resigning on Monday 12/05

Italy's Matteo Renzi thought the "silent majority" would save him, if only he could chivvy enough of them to polls. The prime minister misjudged disastrously.

The voters certainly turned out. They smashed through the 60% threshold that Mr. Renzi thought would secure him victory in the constitutional referendum, but only to register their silent anger  - with him, with his government, with Brussels, and with an Italo-European establishment that has run the Italian economy into the ground.

"I didn't realize they hated me so much," he confessed before his resignation, the wunderkind of European politics no more. 

The referendum was no ordinary vote and it may prove much harder this time to shrug off the volcanic effects. "The whole world was against us. They threw every piece of [expletive] at us. Our achievement is a miracle," said Beppe Grillo, the flamboyant comedian behind the triumphant Five Star Movement.

A narrow 'No' had been discounted. Almost nobody expected a landslide rejection by 59% to 41%, with reaching 71% in Sicily in what amounts to a primordial scream by the pauperized Mezzogiorno.

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WHY ARE CASTRO-LOVERS BLIND TO HIS EVIL?

castro-penn
Castro and his acolyte Sean Penn

How many political enemies would a dictator have to kill before you would no longer want your non-adult children to meet with him?

Sean Penn wrote a particularly mindless semi-tribute to Fidel Castro in the Dec. 3 edition of the Daily Beast, where he is far harsher on Donald Trump than on Castro. The article caught my attention because he had taken his young children to Cuba to meet Castro.

I assume that Mr. Penn would not have been as enthusiastic about his children meeting Hitler, Stalin or Mao (if that had been possible), because they each were responsible for the deaths of tens of millions of people, rather than just mass-murdering thousands, as was Castro.

Many Castro tributes poured in from those who should have known better, such as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In addition to all of the killings and imprisonments, Castro also deprived the Cuban people freedom of speech, of assembly, of the press and of religion, the right to travel, and to fair and free elections, among other things.

His apologists say “Oh, never mind, because he improved literacy and health care.”  Those who have praised Castro and Cuba merely reveal their own ignorance and lack of an ethical compass.

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IT’S THE MOST WONDERFUL TIME IN 8 YEARS

Enjoy!

And wave goodbye to The PIAPS!

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WHY DO LIBERALS WORSHIP EVIL?

World's Sexiest CorpseLast Friday (11/25) at age 90, Fidel Castro finally croaked.  Cuban-Americans danced in the streets of Miami.  Liberals mourned.  A mystery I’ve found puzzling for almost 60 years rose again to confront me.

When I was 14 years old in 1958, my father was able to take my family to Moscow on a filming assignment.  We went to Lenin’s Tomb, where a huge line of Russians waited their turn to enter and see the corpses of Lenin and Stalin encased in glass displays. 

We went to the front of the line, as "foreign guests."  Everyone from the guards to the people in line were so reverential, as if this were a holy, sacred place.  There was complete silence as we entered the tomb with a number of Russians and proceeded between the two bodies under glass, nobody making the slightest sound.  It was impossibly creepy.

It was also hard for me not to laugh.  All over Moscow we had seen huge statues of Lenin and Stalin, making them look like giants towering above the rest of us mere pygmies.  Yet I had learned in the research I'd done back home that they were not much taller than midgets – Lenin was five-foot-one, while Stalin was under five-four.

What really got to me was all the pretending that these two monsters were moral giants.  What would the world think of Germans flocking to the tomb of Hitler, with Hitler's body on display under glass and worshipped? 

I was only 14, yet I knew that these men had murdered millions, that they were among the most evil men who had ever lived, that they were moral equivalents of Hitler.  The reverential silence, the worship of evil, displayed by these Russians all around me as we slowly shuffled past their corpses was terrifying and mysterious.  Suddenly, I didn't want to laugh.

When we came out again onto Red Square, I felt overwhelmed by a question:  Why would people worship evil? 

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A TRUMP STATE DEPARTMENT

JW in Afghan 1988This picture was taken in Afghanistan in 1988, at the height of the Afghan Mujahaddin’s struggle to liberate their country from the Evil Empire of the Soviet Union.

Yet only two of those pictured are Afghan – the white-bearded gentleman in the middle, famous commander Moli Shakur, and his aide standing behind him.

The man on the left of the picture is yours truly.  The man on the right is the man who should be the next Secretary of State.

Here’s why.

President-elect Trump is wisely considering a number of qualified candidates for SOS.  What I am about to say is in no way to criticize them.  The however is that with one exception, they will run Foggy Bottom according to their world-view.

The exception is the man you see gently cradling an AK-47 in his left hand – for his world-view almost uncannily coincides with that of Donald Trump.  He’s US Congressman from California Dana Rohrabacher.

With Dana, President Trump will get a Trump State Department – not that of anyone else.

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AN ELECTION THERAPY GUIDE FOR LIBERALS

Trump Champagne
A bottle of Trump champagne at the Dowd Thanksgiving dinner table

Donald Trump pulled off one of the greatest political feats in modern history by defeating Hillary Clinton and the vaunted Clinton machine.

The election was a complete repudiation of Barack Obama: his fantasy world of political correctness, the politicization of the Justice Department and the I.R.S., an out-of-control E.P.A., his neutering of the military, his nonsupport of the police and his fixation on things like transgender bathrooms.

Since he became president, his party has lost 63 House seats, 10 Senate seats and 14 governorships.

The country had signaled strongly in the last two midterms that they were not happy. The Dems’ answer was to give them more of the same from a person they did not like or trust.

Preaching — and pandering — with a message of inclusion, the Democrats have instead become a party where incivility and bad manners are taken for granted, rudeness is routine, religion is mocked and there is absolutely no respect for a differing opinion.

This did not go down well in the Midwest, where Trump flipped three blue states and 44 electoral votes.

Here is a short primer for the young protesters.

If your preferred candidate loses, there is no need for mass hysteria, canceled midterms, safe spaces, crying rooms or group primal screams.  You might understand this better if you had not received participation trophies, undeserved grades to protect your feelings or even if you had a proper understanding of civics.

The Democrats are now crying that Hillary had more popular votes. That can be her participation trophy.

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THE LEFT EMBRACES APARTHEID

1866 Democrat Party campaign poster
1866 Democrat Party campaign poster

The home page of Hillary Clinton’s campaign website (still up: https://www.hillaryclinton.com) has links to “African Americans for Hillary, Latinos for Hillary, Asian Americans and Pacific islanders for Hillary, Women for Hillary, Millennials for Hillary,” but none to “Men for Hillary,” let alone “White Americans for Hillary.”

Given the history of such stereotyping, it is baffling that politicians on the left cannot see where this leads. The prime exponents of identity politics in the past were the advocates of apartheid, of anti-semitism, and of treating women as the legal chattels of men. “We are sleepwalking our way to segregation,” Trevor Phillips says.

Identity politics is thus very old-fashioned. Christina Hoff Sommers, author of Who Stole Feminism, says equality feminism — fair treatment, respect and dignity — is being eclipsed in universities by a Victorian “fainting couch feminism,” which views women as “fragile flowers who require safe spaces, trigger warnings and special protection from micro-invalidations.”

Sure enough, when she said this at Oberlin College, Ohio, 35 students and a “therapy dog” sought refuge in a safe room.

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WHY THE ICY SILENCE FROM CLIMATE ALARMISTS?

La Nina
La Nina

Global land temperatures have plummeted by one degree Celsius since the middle of this year – the biggest and steepest fall on record.

But the news has been greeted with an eerie silence by the world’s alarmist community. When temperatures shoot up it’s catastrophic climate change which requires dramatic headlines across the mainstream media and demands for urgent action.

But that when they fall even more precipitously it’s just a case of “nothing to see here”.

The cause of the fall is a La Niña event following in the wake of an unusual strong El Niño.

As David Rose reports:

Big El Niños always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Niño was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.

 

It has now been replaced by a La Niña event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal.

 

This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.

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