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FINESSING IRAN: DANGEROUSLY STUPID

The Bush administration has clearly decided to try to "manage" Iraq and "finesse" Iran, hoping to muddle through until the election and then, if victorious, consider its options in the broader theater. The president and his top advisers evidently want to avoid "new adventures" between now and November.

But this is a very dangerous strategy, because it leaves the initiative, in Iraq and elsewhere, entirely in the hands of people like Zarqawi and his longtime Iranian sponsors. Indeed, it seems to me that doing nothing is an open invitation to "new adventures" in the Middle East, in Europe, and in the United States.

You don't need classified information to see this; it's right in front of our noses. Yet we refuse to see it. This is what intelligence failures are really about: denial of the most obvious facts about the world. And it's what policy failures are about as well: refusal to take the obvious steps to protect our citizens, our allies, and our national interests.

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A BRILLIANT NEW TOOL

All of you know of Google as a search engine; you probably use it. For a long while Google also has had a free toolbar for download. It appears as a toolbar on the top of your Internet Explorer page, along with Internet Explorer’s own toolbars.

The Google toolbar enables searches without having to navigate to www.google.com. While convenient and useful, I normally wouldn’t mention it in these columns, because it hadn’t until recently enhanced your computer’s security.

Google has come out with a second edition, and among several new features, it includes a pop-up killer.

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SHERLOCK HOLMES COULD NOT SOLVE THE MYSTERY OF MH370


On Tuesday (4/08), we learned that "crews searching for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 have failed to relocate the sounds previously heard deep in the Indian Ocean, raising fears that the batteries in the plane's black box may have died."

The tragic disappearance of all 239 people on board flight MH370 in the Indian Ocean has one really peculiar feature to it: none of the possible explanations is remotely plausible, yet one of them must be true.

The usual rule on these occasions - choose the simplest explanation or, as William of Ockham taught, make the fewest assumptions - simply does not work. There is no simple explanation. Whether the cause was an accidental decompression, a terrorist act or a suicide, all three require us to assume that an outlandish and bizarre sequence of events happened.

I don't know about you, but I have had conversations about MH370 with many people recently, some of whom were fairly confident that they knew what had happened. Yet every story they told was baroque in its contrivance to the point of implausibility, requiring a chain of events that stretched my credulity. Yet, as I say, one such story will turn out to be right.

Consider the sequence of events.

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THE IRS: END IT BECAUSE YOU CANNOT MEND IT


Every few years, at least from the time of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, there is a scandal involving abuse of power at the Internal Revenue Service. We are again in the midst of one of these periodic abuse scandals, with many solemn promises that the problems will be corrected and will not happen again.

As always, the rhetoric is far from the reality for two basic reasons. The first is the nature of the income tax, which, by definition, is subjective in its interpretation of the definition of "income" and thus subject to abuse. The second is the type of person that the IRS attracts as an employee.

In the former, the agency is corrupt in the Orwellian sense. When the federal government's General Services Administration or the IRS takes a number of its employees to Las Vegas for a conference, is this a taxable benefit (income) or not? The answer is this case is "no" because this is the type of benefit the political class enjoys.

In the latter, because the IRS is feared, loathed and resented, it attracts all too many workers who are insensitive to the needs and problems of others, and some even enjoy being bullies.

These flaws of the IRS cannot be mended -- thus the only real solution is to put an end to the IRS itself.

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BANGLADESH IN OUR FUTURE


Bandarban, Chittagong Hills, Bangladesh.  It's an interesting geopolitical story what I'm doing here, but that will have to wait until next week.  This is a very remote region where Bangladesh, India, and Burma come together, and my internet connection is very iffy, so I have to make this quick.

For a backgrounder (up to October 2004) on Bangladesh, see The World's Most Dangerous Cat Fight.  Our future is not to be like here.  This is the 8th most populous country on earth - over 140 million - squeezed into Iowa.  The ubiquity of humanity is overwhelming - and nowhere more so than on the roads.

You can't imagine the insanity of it unless you've experienced it, exclaiming Sweet JC! in earnest supplication a thousand times with each time you are sure you'll be in a mangled death-wreck that somehow never happens.  Hordes of people walking; rickshaw bikes pedaled by skinny kids carrying people, furniture, sacks of rice, logs, and bamboo poles 50 feet long; motorscooter rickshaws as numerous as ants; motorbikes, cars, huge trucks, and giant buses - all of them frantically trying to pass anything moving slower.

In the cities, villages, and towns, every street and alley is choked and clogged with traffic, from rickshaw bikes to buses, beyond belief.  It is dystopian beyond any city or country in the world.

With one exception.  And that exception is what should be - needs to be - in our future.

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THE COMPULSION TO APOLOGIZE


I've written often, such as in Rejecting The Evil Eye, about liberals' fear of envy.  This fear is what makes them liberals.  Thus the key insight:

Liberalism is not a political ideology or set of beliefs. It is an envy-deflection device, a psychological strategy to avoid being envied. It is the politicalization of envy-appeasement.
Nothing more epitomizes liberals' fear of envy than their compulsion to apologize.  Apologize to the world for the existence of  exploitative America.  Apologize to the Earth for the existence of polluting humanity.  Last Sunday (2/25), the Democrat-controlled legislature of Virginia voted to "apologize" for the state's role in slavery.

When you apologize for something that your great-great-great-great grandfather, at the latest, might have done (and most likely not, for the overwhelming majority of Virginia residents are not the descendants of slave owners), you require psychiatric counseling.

Another example of how liberalism is a psychological affliction - a particularly dangerous one when it's the basis of foreign policy.

Which brings us today to a Democrat Congressman from California, "Moonbat Mike" Honda.

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A SUMMER EXPERIMENT


Since we launched To The Point at the end of March, 2003, we have issued the TTP Weekly Report every single week for the last three+ years.  I'm really proud of that and have every intention of continuing this record.

It's going to be challenging to do so this summer, so here we go with an experiment.  I haven't been stuck in DC for these past three years straight, but wherever I wandered off to in the world during that time, it's been for a short while, like a couple of weeks or so here and there.

This summer is different, for I'll be out of the country for all of July and August.  Sometimes I'll be in places where there will be an Internet connection, and sometimes not.  Wherever I'm in the former, you'll hear from me - but there may be a gap or two when I'm in the latter.

The TTP staff will make sure that the Weekly Report gets out in time, and with our brilliant regulars like Joel Wade, Michael Ledeen, Jack Kelly, Neal Asbury, Dagny D'Anconia, and Dennis Turner. 

As for me, I'll be providing at least a "sitrep" (situation report) on each country I'm in.  As of now, that will be:  Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Israel, Croatia, Montenegro, Austria, Switzerland, France, and Spain.  Plus a surprise or two.

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OBL: STILL DEAD


We’ve gotten a number of queries regarding the corporeal status of Osama Bin Laden, given that Michael Ledeen, in Who’s An Iraqi?, reported that OBL croaked in December, yet he came out with an audiotape in January.

Here’s the deal.


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THE GLOBALIZATION OF TERRORISM

The Saudi royal family has prepared a detailed plan to run abroad if the situation gets much worse, and that knowledge of the royal family's intentions is a major component in the recent rise in the price of oil. Meanwhile, the Saudis are buying insurance by supporting the terrorists in Iraq.

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NEW SPYWARE REMOVER

It’s rare that I change security programs. I’ve suggested you pay $40 for Ad-aware; I consider it a useful inexpensive program that protects your computer from intruders.

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WILL GERMANY DESTROY THE EURO?


The eurozone debt crisis is deepening and threatens to re-erupt on a larger scale when the liquidity cycle turns, a leading panel of economists warned in a clash of views with German officials in Berlin.

"Debts above 130% of GDP for Italy and 170% for Greece are a recipe for disaster once we go into the next downturn," said Professor Charles Wyplosz, from Geneva University.

"Today's politicians believe the crisis is over and don't want to hear any more about it, but they have not tackled the core issues of fiscal union and public debt," he said, speaking at Euromoney's annual Germany conference.

Ludger Schuknecht, director-general of the German finance ministry, insisted that the debt-stricken states of the eurozone are well on the way to recovery, ending their EU-IMF rescue programs successfully one by one. There is no need for any major shift in policy. "The strategy has been right. We need to bring down debt and this is now consensus," he said.

This optimism is sharply at odds with the view of almost every foreign-based economist attending the event. Charles Dallara, former head of the International Institute for Finance and chief negotiator for global banks in Greece's debt-restructuring, said little has been done to put the eurozone on a viable footing, even if sovereign bond yields in southern Europe have fallen to record lows.

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IMMIGRATION AND PRODUCTIVITY


[Note from JW:  Dr. Rahn here presents an economic discussion of immigration - after all, he is an economist.  It is not a discussion of the national security threat of immigration, specifically that of illegal immigration from Mexico. A lively discussion of Dr. Rahn's arguments is expected on the TTP Forum!]

How many new immigrants should the United States allow each year? How many guest workers? These are not easy questions, which is why there is as much fierce debate within the two parties as between them.

The two main reasons given for restricting current immigration are the myths that immigrants take away American jobs and that immigrants are more likely to go on welfare, thus putting an additional burden on the taxpayers.

Rather than taking away American jobs, good economists understand that immigrants who work create wealth in America, which in turn creates more and higher paying jobs for everyone.

To explain the economics of this adequately would take more space than this entire commentary, but the truth of the assertion can be seen in the fact that high-wage countries with many immigrants such as Switzerland, Australia and Canada tend to have much higher labor force participation rates and lower unemployment rates than low-wage countries.

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GRIEVING CELEBRITIES STRUGGLE TO FIND REPLACEMENT DICTATOR


penn_chavez.png

(AP) The formal announcement yesterday (3/05) by the Venezuelan government that Hugo Chavez has died sent shockwaves through the ranks of the Hollywood elite, who had long been the Venezuelan leader's staunchest supporters. Throughout the day, celebrities struggled to cope with the devastating loss.

"Sean is devastated, completely inconsolable," Sean Penn's publicist Amy Glattensturmer told the AP. "He's been in his bedroom all day. He won't eat, he won't berate his staff, he won't punch women, he wouldn't even come outside to look at the brand new Ferrari Enzo the studio sent him as incentive to read a script. He realizes that a true champion of the working class has died today, and, as one himself, Sean has taken the hit very hard."

"The relationship between celebrities and their dictators is a very close one," PR guru Benjamin Shaltzberg told the AP. "Hollywood celebrities had formed a huge bond with Chavez. It will be difficult to replace."

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HATING HORATIO


Ancient Rome's greatest historian was Titus Livius, known to us as Livy (59 BC-17 AD).  In the Second Book of his monumental history of Rome, Ab Urbe Condita (From the Founding of the City), he tells the famous story of Horatio at the Bridge.

In 510 BC, Rome was threatened with destruction from an invading army of Etruscans.  All Romans living in the countryside had abandoned their homes and fled for protection inside the city.  The city walls were heavily garrisoned, but the most vulnerable point was a wooden bridge, the Pons Sublicius, across the river Tiber and into Rome.

When Etruscan forces focused their attack on the bridge, the Roman troops guarding it fled in fear - save for one man, a soldier named Horatius, whom we call Horatio.

Watching the President's State of the Union speech last night, I thought of Horatio at the bridge.  When I talked to Tony Snow, the president's spokesman today, I understood why.

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THE WORLD BOGRAKAB CUP

For at least a quarter-century now, I've been hearing the same mantra from soccer enthusiasts:  "Every little kid in America plays soccer.  When they grow up, soccer will be more popular than football or baseball."

This hasn't happened and never will happen.  Kids love to run around and kick a ball.  Watching grown-ups do it has all the drama of watching paint dry. 

A majority of Americans will not pay much attention to the World Cup this month while the rest of the world goes bananas about it because "soccer" should really be named "bograkab" - bunch-of-guys-running-around-kicking-a-ball.

Here's a synopsis of most every period of most every professional soccer game ever played:

Run around kick a ball, run around kick a ball, run around kick a ball, run around kick a ball, run around kick a ball - never score. 

Run around kick a ball, run around kick a ball, run around kick a ball, run around kick a ball, run around kick a ball - never score. 

It doesn't get more exciting in sports than this.  Except for curling.

So - now that I have all soccer fans totally enraged (something that's very easy to do, by the way), let's talk for real about why soccer will never be a competitor to football or baseball or basketball for the hearts of American sports fans.

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