2014: HISTORY RETURNS IN TOOTH AND CLAW
We enter the year of the all-conquering US dollar. As the global security system unravels - with echoes of 1914 - the premium on the world's safe-haven currency must rise.
As the Fed turns off the spigot of dollar liquidity, it will starve the world's dysfunctional economy of $1 trillion a year of stimulus. This will occur through the quantity of money effect, hitting in a series of hammer blows, regardless of whether interest rates remain at zero.
It is hard to imagine a strategic and economic setting more conducive to a blistering dollar rally, a process that will pick up speed as yields on 10-year US Treasuries break through 3% (as of today, 01/02, it is at 2.992).
We’re going to enter a brave new world in 2014. The democracies are on the back foot. It is no longer Francis Fukuyama's "End of History," but history returning in tooth and claw. So with that caveat let me try to make sense of global economic forces.
The annual rite of new year predictions is never easy. It is nigh impossible in the midst of a global regime change with so many political bombs primed to go off at any moment. But here we go.
