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HALF-FULL REPORT 05/20/16

Rod D. Martin May 20, 2016

Wednesday, The Donald released his short list for the Supreme Court. It’s a blockbuster: to quote John Yoo at National Review, “these names are a Federalist Society all-star list of conservative jurisprudence.”

What we should think about this is already a matter of considerable debate.

A month ago, the conventional wisdom was that Hillary would slaughter Trump. As I predicted, that “wisdom” was ludicrously wrong. Rasmussen now has Trump +5, 42-37. And that's just for starters. Indeed, the Trump-loathing Wall Street Journal actually asked this week "Can Hillary Win? It's Hard to See How".

All this, plus the Democrat War on Women, Bill Clinton's rape problem, drafting women, and a hilarious new poll of Native Americans on the Washington Redskins. And of course, much much more.

THE REAL ATLANTIS

Dr. Jack Wheeler May 20, 2016

Atlantis1 Knossos, Crete. Welcome to Atlantis. This is what it looked like. And this:

Atlantis2 More nonsense has been invented about Plato’s myth of Atlantis – mentioned briefly in his Timaeus and Critias and nowhere else by anyone else in antiquity – than any other legend you care to name.

Yet like many myths, it was constructed out of something that really existed. Here’s the story and the lesson to be learned.

THIS IS HOW FASCISM COMES TO AMERICA

Robert Kagan May 20, 2016

[This essay by conservative scholar Bob Kagan states precisely why To The Point has so fervently opposed Trump’s candidacy and will continue to do so—JW]

The Republican Party’s attempt to treat Donald Trump as a normal political candidate would be laughable were it not so perilous to the republic. If only he would mouth the party’s “conservative” principles, all would be well.

But of course the entire Trump phenomenon has nothing to do with policy or ideology. It has nothing to do with the Republican Party, either, except in its historic role as incubator of this singular threat to our democracy. Trump has transcended the party that produced him.

His growing army of supporters no longer cares about the party. Because it did not immediately and fully embrace Trump, because a dwindling number of its political and intellectual leaders still resist him, the party is regarded with suspicion and even hostility by his followers. Their allegiance is to him and him alone.

And the source of allegiance?

AMERICA’S CHAMBERLAIN

Michael Ledeen May 20, 2016

obama_chamberlain It’s not hard to see why the discussion of Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes’ exchanges with the New York Times – The Aspiring Novelist Who Became Obama’s Foreign Policy Guru – has received so much attention from the chattering class. A lot of it is all about them, after all, and we all love to talk about ourselves.

By now, we’ve all heard the insults to the D.C. press corps (they’re 27 years old and don’t know anything about anything) and the self-satisfied account about how Rhodes and his colleagues, including Obama himself, deceived America about the Iran deal.

The deception hasn’t stopped, however, nor does it go away because Obama and Rhodes have given us a new account of the Iran deal.

For now we discover that negotiations with Iran started even before Obama was inaugurated, and had nothing to do with events over there. It was Obama’s initiative, and it’s the key to his foreign policy.

THE SUMMER OF SHOCKS

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard May 20, 2016

Global fund managers have almost no faith in the latest stock market rallies around the world and have begun to fear the worst from Brexit, putting aside near record sums of money in cash as they brace for a ‘summer of shocks.’

Investors have already lost confidence in China’s economic rebound this year and are shunning British equities like the plague, fearing a financial crunch if Britain votes to leave the EU.

Bank of America’s monthly survey of funds shows that 27% now think Brexit is the biggest ‘tail-risk’ for the global economy, overtaking neuralgic concerns about a devaluation by China or a wave of defaults by Chinese companies.

Longstanding fears that central banks are running out of policy ammunition or risk ‘quantitative failure’ have slipped to third place. The new worry is ‘stagflation’ in the US, a toxic mix of slowing growth and rising inflation at the same time.

What is puzzling is that this mood of deep alarm conflicts with clear evidence of accelerating monetary growth worldwide, usually a harbinger of better times ahead.

IS THE END NEAR?

Richard Rahn May 20, 2016

The end is near — depending on how you define “near” and where you live.

A couple of weeks ago, hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller gave an important talk arguing that the crisis is about to hit and investors should liquidate their equity holdings. He and others who have similar views have been the subject of much debate among economists — more of it about the timing of the next global and U.S. downturn and not so much about whether it will come.

The crisis has already hit many — depending on where you live and what assets you hold — and will eventually spread to billions of others, including a very large segment of the U.S. population.

The fundamental problem is most countries are experiencing little or no growth as a result of excessive government spending (particularly on transfer payments), and destructive regulations and tax policies.

The unwillingness of the politicians (and their voters) to cut back on spending and regulation has led to an explosion of government debt, which is not sustainable at current levels of economic growth. This, in turn, is fueling a demand for more government spending (more free stuff) and thus more debt.

How long do you think this can go on?

NEWS AMERICA NEEDS MORE OF

ToThePoint May 20, 2016

Targeteeth

HALF-FULL REPORT 05/13/16

Rod D. Martin May 13, 2016

Earlier this week, Jack published “The To The Point Rebel Alliance.” You should certainly read it if you haven’t. It starts with a clip of the Galactic Senate giving Palpatine thunderous applause as he declares himself emperor.

Across the Atlantic, two branches of a very real empire collided a couple of weeks ago. Barack Obama threatened Britain with draconian consequences should it vote to leave the European Union (or as it’s more fondly known, the EUSR). Boris Johnson’s rejoinder was an instant classic, demonstrating that he, not David Cameron, is Margaret Thatcher’s true heir.

Continuing to confound expectations of his certain doom, this week Donald Trump pulled ahead of or even with Hillary Clinton in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac has Trump 4 points ahead (43-39) in life-and-death Ohio, and just 1 point down (43-42) in the other two.

Hillary's mistakes just keep piling up, as virtually everything she does seems to reinforce the Trump brand. Indeed the campaign is so tone-deaf that everyone’s earlier worries about Trump being a ringer for Hillary increasingly look backward: if anything, it’s Hillary who’s working to elect Trump.

All this, plus Admiral Akbar, America’s own Emperor Palpatine, and the most encouraging Jimmy Kimmel segment you’ve ever seen, all in this week’s Half Full Report.

THE TRUMP TAX RETURN TIME BOMB

John Fund May 13, 2016

When Donald Trump sits down with Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell today (5/12), there is a pressing issue that they should put before their party’s presumptive presidential nominee.

He told the Associated Press on Tuesday (5/10) that he has no plans to release his tax returns before the November election. “There’s nothing to learn from them,” he said. Previously, he had claimed he would love to release the returns as soon as an IRS audit is completed.

This is Trump’s bait-and switch-style at its most dangerous. Some Trump delegates and their alternates should write him an open letter demanding his unredacted tax returns. If he declines, they should declare they will abstain on the first ballot of the convention, driving him below the number needed to nominate.

No political party has ever had quite such a political land mine on the verge of becoming its presidential nominee. If delegates are anxious about pressuring Trump, they should note that no delegate faces serious consequences for abstaining on the first ballot.

THE LESSONS OF TRUMP

Ben Shapiro May 13, 2016

We all got it wrong.

Everybody who wrote Donald Trump off as a political charlatan destined to flame out; everybody who called Trump a clown who would return to his reality show and leave us all alone; everybody who suggested that this circus couldn't -- couldn't! -- continue...we were all wrong.

Now it's time to take away a few lessons. Here are five.

First, failure to utilize ideological purity tests leads to the rise of leftist candidates within your own party.

Second, ignoring social issues means that the only way to appeal to disgruntled blue-collar voters is by moving left on economics.

Third, moral narrative is far more important than policy knowledge.

Fourth, when you believe there are no good guys, character doesn't matter.

Fifth, lack of institutional trust leads to the rise of protofascists, not to a general allegiance to liberty.

Let’s discuss each.

TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY IS EITHER NOT SERIOUS OR NON-EXISTENT

Michael Ledeen May 13, 2016

Well, at least he wants to call "radical Islam" by its name. I’ll give him that. But then there’s that silly, misleading bit about how we Americans love it when former enemies become friends.

Most of the time this is said with regards to Germany and Japan, our leading enemies in the Second World War that are now close allies. If you put it that way it’s just a happy story, and it fits with Trump’s theme of making ours the happiest times … ever.

But it so drastically oversimplifies the subject that it’s worrisome, because he suggests that our current unpleasantness with Russia and China can be transformed if we sit down and make a deal. You know, the sort he claims he’s so fabulous at making.

The enemies-to-friends/allies story about Germany and Japan came about only after we destroyed them in a world war, not because FDR and Truman struck wonderful deals with them.

Enmity is like that. Trump’s dealmaking theory of making friends out of enemies has, in fact, just been tested by Barack Obama, and it hasn’t worked out very well.

THE EURO’S SUGAR RUSH IS ENDING

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard May 13, 2016

The eurozone’s short-lived recovery is already losing steam as stimulus fades and deep problems resurface, raising fears of yet another false dawn and a potential deflation trap if there is any external shock over coming months.

Since the end of November, the euro has steadily risen against the dollar from a low of 1.05 to 1.14 today (5/11). But the sugar rush is coming to an end.

Industrial output fell in 1.3% Germany and 0.3% in France in March as manufacturing stalled, confounding expectations for robust expansion. The relapse in a string of countries suggests that flash estimates of 0.6% GDP growth in the first quarter were too optimistic and may have to be cut.

“The recovery is not gaining any traction. I am really quite worried about another spasm of the debt crisis over the summer,” said Lars Christensen from Markets and Money Advisory.

The eurozone has been basking in a sweet spot over the last year, with stimulus from cheap oil, a weaker euro, ECB bond purchases, and an end to fiscal austerity, all coming together in a "perfect positive storm". “If that can’t produce growth, nothing will,” says Nouriel Roubini from New York University.

GLOBAL PICKPOCKETS

Richard Rahn May 13, 2016

Well brought-up individuals are taught not to take things from other people’s pockets: “Thou shall not steal.” There are those who never learned the lesson — criminals, and many in the global political class.

The latest targets of the global looters are multinational corporations. During the last few years, there has been an effort by high-tax countries (many of which are rich) to establish global minimum corporate taxes and for international tax bureaucrats to determine how taxes on a company should be allocated among the jurisdictions in which it operates.

Even though the effort is cloaked as an issue of "tax fairness," it is really an effort of more powerful countries and their political classes to take away more from those who earned it and spend it on themselves and their friends.

This effort to tax companies more raises a series of questions.

First, is it wrong for corporate officers to try legally to minimize their company's tax bills? No, in fact, corporate officers have a fiduciary responsibility to their stockholders, employees and even their customers to minimize costs, including taxes.

Second, should corporations be taxed at all? Again, the answer is No. Here’s why.

TRUMPKINS, CLINTONISTAS, AND LEMMINGS

ToThePoint May 13, 2016

Suicidal

HALF-FULL REPORT 05/06/16

Rod D. Martin May 6, 2016

It’s hard to feel very “half full” in a week like this one, with conservative champion Ted Cruz vanquished by The Donald in an Indiana blow-out.

But let’s start with this. If at the beginning of the race anyone was more written off than Donald Trump, it was surely Ted Cruz, who was universally derided, indeed generally expected to tie the now-nominee for 17th out of 17. In reality, he came 2nd, and had he not withdrawn Tuesday there is still a good chance that at a contested convention, he might have ended up 1st.

That is remarkable for what it says about a Republican Party in which, just one year ago, Jeb Bush was not merely the prohibitive favorite but so thoroughly “inevitable” that even Mitt Romney chickened out of a race against him. GOP voters this year wiped out an entire generation of Republican leaders. Indeed, in the end, Ted lost in no small part because Trump successfully painted him as the last Establishment candidate, however nonsensical that was.

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