The HFR has recovered from its hangover bidding the annus horribilus of 2008 vale ad aeternam, goodbye forever, and welcomes you to what's coming for this brand new year of 2009!

Or rather what might be coming - for as we learned near the start of last year in The 2008 Carpe Diem Filter,  history is stochastic, a series of uniquely unrepeatable events.  There is no such thing as the future, and you can't make predictions about something that doesn't exist.

You certainly can about nature (like what time the sun will rise tomorrow), but not about what people will do, because they haven't decided yet - and in particular, the extent to which they decide to treat problems as opportunities (the carpe diem filter).

Nonetheless, there are some things that look exceedingly likely.  So here goes.

Don't be surprised if 2009 is as weird a year as 2008.  A president who worships at a God Damn America church is worshipped as the savior of America - but for how long?  The media will focus on his every word and deed, and will shout hosannas of positive news regarding everything he touches.  But sooner or later it will dawn on folks that he is no more competent a president than he is a golfer - or bowler.

How much did the federal budget deficit rise in 2007?

Answer: It did not rise, it got much smaller. The deficit has been declining rapidly for the last three years and is now only about 1 percent of gross domestic product, which is far lower than the average deficit for the last half-century.

Left-wing ideologues, such as Paul Krugman of the New York Times, have been predicting for years that the Bush tax cuts would lead to ever-growing deficits. Wrong again.

When did the recession of 2007 begin?

Answer: It never started. CNN and other news media are quoting polls showing many Americans think the economy has been in a recession. But the economy has grown in every quarter of 2007, and employment is at a record high, despite the subprime mortgage problem and the rise in oil prices.

Economic growth in 2007 will be more than 2 percent - not great, but not a disaster or a recession. The reason so many think the U.S. is in a recession is the unbalanced reporting about the economy from many in the left-leaning media who overly report the comments of Bush-hating politicians and the bad, but not the good, numbers.

On Christmas Day, an Islamist fanatic tried to blow up an airplane whose passengers were mostly Christians. And we helped.

Our government gets no thanks for preventing a tragedy. Only the bomber's ineptitude preserved the lives of nearly 300 innocents.

How did we help Umar Abdulmutallab, a wealthy Moslem university graduate who decided that Allah wanted him to slaughter Christians on their most joyous holiday?

By continuing to lie to ourselves. Although willing -- at last -- to briefly use the word "terror," yesterday President Obama still refused to make a connection between the action, the date, and Islam.   You and I know there is a connection.  But our government refuses to know it. Despite vast databases crammed with evidence, our leaders -- of both parties -- still refuse to connect Islamist terrorism with Islam.

The best news this week is that with this issue of the HFR, we get to raise a tin cup of moonshine and say adios to 2008.  Come what may in 2009, it is such an incredible relief to get this sucker over with.

It is, of course, not good news that during Christmas, millions of Americans have been stranded in airports and train stations due to massive winter storms all across the country.  Yet being stranded gives one time to think - and hopefully one thought that will occur to them is that global warming is laughably ridiculous...

... By the way, out of every 100,000 molecules of air, how many do you suppose are molecules of CO2, the evil gas environuts say causes global warming?  39.  How many are man-made molecules of CO2?  1.  That's one-onehundrendthousandth.  Man-made greenhouse gas emissions are irrelevant to the world's weather...

... So now Blago is going to subpoena Zero's chief of staff.  Watching this scandal unfold is almost as much fun as seeing Princess Caroline Kennedy's assumed royal prerogative of being anointed US Senator from New York crashing and burning...

...But now let's focus on what is truly good and uplifting news this week.  For the first time ever, Christmas was celebrated as an official holiday in Iraq.  And let's close this last HFR of 2008 with this heartwarming thought.  Christmas yesterday was celebrated by more people in more places on all seven continents (even scientists in Antarctica) - by far - than any other celebration of any kind, religious or otherwise, in the world.

Which presidential contenders would be best for the economy and which ones worse? Unfortunately, much of the campaign has revolved around a series of largely meaningless sound bites and words like "change."

Some candidates find they can get away with policy prescriptions totally disconnected from their stated goals and empty platitudes, because many in the press demand nothing more, even in the "debates."

I suspect that there are millions of other such voters who haven't a clue about various candidates' positions, let alone understand the actual implications of their declared policies.  So let's discuss them, one by one, and see if that helps us answer the question.

[This is the full text of the address given by US Senator James Inhofe, R-OK, delivered to the delegates attending the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen on Thursday, December 17.]

Copenhagen attendees, I want to turn back the clock to December 2003, when the United Nations convened the "9^th Conference of the Parties" in Milan, Italy, to discuss implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.  At the time, I was leading the Senate delegation to Milan as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works [Mr. Inhofe is now Ranking Member of the committee]. 

Fast forward to December 2009: the UN is holding its 15^th global warming conference-and the delegates are haggling over the same issues that were before them in 2003.   I know this because I was there.  Recently, with the Copenhagen talks underway, I reread the speech I delivered in Milan.  I found that the issues at stake in 2003 are nearly the same as those in 2009.  In short, nothing has changed and nothing has been done.

So the Copenhagen talks are stalemated.  It's clear to all that developing countries don't want burdensome regulations to stifle their economies.  I don't blame them.  Well, that's the way we feel right here in America.  That's why no global warming treaty that causes serious harm to the US economy, or that doesn't include equal commitments from the likes of China and India, will ever be ratified by the US Senate. Further, I want to be sure the 191 countries represented here understand this:  an economy-wide cap-and-trade bill stands no chance of passing.

There hasn't been an HFR since November 4 since it's too depressing to raise a glass that's completely dry and empty.  Lately, however, so much fun stuff has been filling the HFR full liter stein that it's like the Munich Oktoberfest in December.

Let's start with the biggest silver lining of November 4:  we didn't end up with President Pain-in-the-ass McCain.  Once again, he reminded us this week of what an insufferable jerk he is.  The only reason he got the nomination is because the Stupid Party allows Democrats to vote in its primaries.  It's such a relief we never have to pay any attention to him ever again.  Jindal-Palin 2012!

Next we move to Blagogate, which is serving to bring into clear focus that corruption is the Democrat Party's middle name - and that for the next four years we'll have a Chicago White House, the operations of which will be run by Blago buddy Rahm Emmanuel...

... Now on to the substantial benefits of the US/global recession.

... We'll close this edition of the HFR by raising a glass of sacramental wine to a great American patriot and founder of the modern conservative political movement, Paul Weyrich.

Madrid, Spain. Spain has been one of the great democratic and economic success stories of the last three decades. But there is now some reason to fear for its future.

The Spaniards have moved in two generations from conservative church-going Catholics to some of the most socially liberal people on the planet (the Californians of Europe). Recent surveys have shown the Spaniards to be among the happiest people on Earth.

In sum, Spain seems to have everything going for it.  There are problems, however, big problems in paradise.

Perhaps when the history of our times is written, ours will be called The Era of Narcissistic Catechisms. To understand why this is the case it is enough to consider the fortunes of two green movements.

2,800 miles away from the one in Copenhagen, another green movement took to the streets this week. In Iran tens of thousands of anti-regime protesters from the green (the color for Islam) movement for democracy again risked their lives to demand freedom.

Unlike global warming, there is no doubt that the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran constitutes a grave threat to international peace and security. There is also no doubt that the most effective way to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is to replace the current genocidal jihadist regime with a peaceful, liberal and democratic government.

As unlikely as it may seem, at the very moment that freedom in Iran has become most urgent requirement for the world as a whole, the Iranian people have taken to the streets to demand it and are willing to pay with their lives to achieve it.

In the face of this miraculous turn of events, the international community has nothing to say. Whereas the West's celebrity icons line up to get their pictures taken next to posters of polar bears, no one stands with the Iranian people.

Sofia, Bulgaria. Dr. Joel Wade couldn't write his column yesterday (10/02) because he was so nervous waiting for the Palin-Biden debate.  He's feeling a lot better this morning.  So are we all.  You betcha.

So let's lift a pint of Kamenitza beer in honor of Sarah Palin and the hope she has reignited the McCain-Palin ticket... 

...Kamenitza is my selection out of a large number of excellent Bulgarian beers because of its advertising motto:  Success in your hands (there's a picture of a hand holding a bottle), followed by the ad copy:  Because you are successful, we present to you a Bulgarian beer with character.

You would never, ever see such an ad in any country in Western Europe.  In France or Germany, young people sneer at entrepreneurial capitalism as their purpose in life is to sponge off the state...

...Thus the garish irony of our election in November.

The global financial problem, stemming from the U.S. subprime mortgage mess, is a direct result of the irresponsibility and incompetence of the U.S. Congress

That Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been engaging in Ponzi scheme with taxpayer-subsidized money is obvious to anyone - even Congressmen - due to a series of major accounting and financial corruption scandals in recent years.

Politicians have used the board positions in these organizations to reward political cronies (e.g., the fired and indicted head of Fannie Mae, Franklin Raines, was Bill Clinton's Office of Management and Budget director). Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been very major contributors to congressional campaigns.

But rather than clean up the mess they created by getting back to market basics, Democrats in Congress decided last week to make the mess much worse.