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CHINA BUBBLE


China's stock market boom has reached outright mania, with equities galloping higher at a parabolic rate, despite threats of a crackdown by regulators and the continued slowdown of the national economy.

The Shanghai Composite Index has risen 32% in the past six weeks, blowing through 3,000 to a three-and-a-half-year high even though corporate earnings are declining steeply.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said late last week that it would "increase market supervision, resolutely crack down and earnestly safeguard normal market order." It warned that stock manipulators had been "raising their head" and would be dealt with.

The cautionary words have been ignored by retail investors as they throng brokerage offices, lured by momentum trades. For the stock boom comes as Chinese industry battles with massive overcapacity in everything from steel to shipbuilding, coal output, cement and solar panels.

The bottom line is that it may be impossible for China to deflate its epic bubble painlessly.

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OBAMA’S FATAL CONCEIT IS THE CAUSE OF HIS FAILED PRESIDENCY


Would you have traded five terrorists for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl?

The decision may have been wrong or right, but what is striking is that President Obama seems to have made this decision, and all too many others, in an ad hoc way, rather than using decision theory.

Decision theory is an orderly way of thinking and choosing among alternatives when there is a number of variables for which the probabilities of each may or may not be known to the decision-maker. It's the opposite of Mr. Obama's thought process.

Politicians and criminals both have a tendency to underestimate the probability of getting caught in bad acts. Is it because few studied decision theory or because there is a certain recklessness in the nature of those who follow such pursuits?

Obviously it's the latter in Mr. Obama's case, who suffers from what is known as The Fatal Conceit.

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EARTH DAY TRAGEDY


A tragedy occurred for all the greenies celebrating Earth Day yesterday (April 22).

The Associated Press released an AP-GfK poll revealing that more Americans believe in God than in man-made global warming.

Can't you just hear the wailing and gnashing of greenie teeth?  They will seize on this as proof that Americans are credulous and anti-scientific, but I'd draw the opposite conclusion. The survey instead shows how remarkably resilient Americans are in the face of relentless environmental brainwashing.

The schools, the universities, the government, the green NGOs, Hollywood and the Enemedia have invested billions of man hours and dollars trying to persuade Americans that climate change is the greatest threat of our age. But according to this survey, only 33 per cent are buying it - while another 37 per cent remain thoroughly unconvinced.

In the survey, respondents were asked how confident they were in a range of scientific statements. The ones in which they had fullest confidence were:

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GUADALCANAL IN AMERICA


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Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands.  Idyllic, isn't it?  Everybody's dream of a South Seas island paradise.  But it wasn't in 1943.  On a moonless night back then, an American PT boat was tracking a Japanese convoy.  All ships were "running dark" with no lights.  Suddenly, a Japanese destroyer was on top of the PT boat, ramming it before the crew could get their boat out of the way.

Their boat sunk, the crew swam to this island, and were subsequently rescued.  An insignificant tale, save for the fact that the PT boat was numbered 109 and captained by Navy Lieutenant John F. Kennedy, who 17 years later would become President of the United States.  That's why the name of the island is Kennedy Island.  (The original native name is Kisolo.)

One can only imagine the rage, disgust, and contempt he would feel over his successor's treatment of his fellow World War II veterans by physically preventing them from visiting the memorials that honor them in Washington.  You have to think he'd say it's time for a Battle of Guadacanal to liberate America.

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A TSUNAMI OF INSANITY


Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.  Sitting with friends here, we are stupefied and silent as we watch video news footage such as this of the truly unbelievable destruction of the Japan Tsunami:

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Until I break the silence.  Watching the gargantuan mud and debris-filled wave sweep into oblivion everything in its path, I mutter, "That's just what Barack Obama is doing to America."

An Emirati fellow asked, "Jack, what do you mean by a tsunami hitting America like what we just saw in Japan?"

"It's a tsunami of insanity, caused by an earthquake of insanity.  Countries can go crazy just like people.  It was clinically deranged of the American people to elect a man with absolutely no qualifications or experience whatever, and who they knew attended a church for 20 years listening to a preacher praying for God to damn America.

"Yet they did it anyway.  A majority of American voters placed their livelihoods and security in the hands of this man - so now a tsunami of economic and national security destruction is bearing down upon us."

He absorbed this, stroked his beard, then asked, "So... is this Obama's tsunami or America's tsunami upon itself?"

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THE REVOLUTIONARY RENDEZVOUS


Get set for a Revolutionary TTP Rendezvous this summer!  The dates are Friday, August 22 through Sunday, August 24 - the weekend before Labor Day weekend.  The place is where the American Revolution began - Boston.

First we'll go to where America began* -- Plymouth Rock.  Then to North Church from whose steeple the signal was given for Paul Revere's ride, and follow his ride to Lexington.  From Lexington Green we'll go to Concord and North Bridge, where the Revolution started with "the shot heard ‘round the world."

We'll host many a lager at the Green Dragon Tavern where Sam Adams and his fellow revolutionaries conspired and plotted against the British.  Revolutionary good cheer will also be had at the Bell In Hand, and every Irishman's favorite Boston pub, Dooley's.

With the help of our members in Boston like Marco the Wizard and the Dynamic Blonde Duo of Maureen Bowen and Eileen Corcoran, we're putting together a package of hotels, venues, and activities that you won't want to miss at a price you can afford.

Details will be forthcoming - but in the meantime, mark your calendar and plan to have a revolutionary good time with your fellow TTP'ers.  Boston, August 22-24.

[*That's not to forget where America also began - Jamestown, Virginia.  Right nearby is Yorktown where the Revolution was won.  Obviously a site for a future Rendezvous.]

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THE WORLDS RICHEST AND MOST DANGEROUS GANGSTER


Suppose there's a Mafia Don.  Not a benign and pro-American Marlon Brando Godfather, but a ruthless brutal gangster who hates America and holds a bottomless grudge against her.

Let's suppose this Mafioso has amassed an enormous personal fortune of ill-gotten gains.  Stashed away in hidden bank accounts and assets all over the world, his net worth exceeds 20 billion dollars - billion with a ‘b'.

But say that's just his personal stash.  Say the total amount of money his gang has accumulated is 300 billion - almost a third of a trillion dollars in cash.  Say he controls it.

Let's finally suppose that this centibillionaire anti-American gangster has an arsenal of several thousand nuclear bombs, most of them in the nose cones of intercontinental missiles aimed at us.

If there were such a man, shouldn't we be a bit more worried about him than a bankrupt midget in Persia without a single real nuke to his name?

For there is indeed such a man.  His name is Vladimir Putin, President of Russia.

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ADIOS AHMADINEJAD


The first step toward understanding the Iranian "elections" last Monday (12/18) is that they weren't. Elections, that is, at least in our common understanding of the term, namely the people vote and the counters count those votes and so we find out what the people want.
 
That's not what happens in Iran, where both the candidates and the results are determined well in advance of the casting of ballots. Yes, people get mobilized and go to the polls and mark their ballots and put them in the ballot box. But then Groucho Marx comes into play: "I've got ballots. And if you don't like them, I've got other ballots."
 
So, as usual, candidates (featuring, as usual, the unfortunate Mehdi Karubi, the eternal loser who nonetheless remains at the top of the mullah's power mountain) complain that ballot boxes disappeared, and new ones magically appeared, and numbers change, and counters are replaced. It's all part of the ritual.

Which is not to say they weren't significant. They certainly were.  They mean that Mr. Ahmadinejad usefulness to Iran's real rulers may have run its course.

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HOW DANGEROUS IS WIKIPEDIA?


I have an admission to make: I have used Wikipedia for serious research. And in all the years I've been doing it, I've never really felt as if I've been led astray.

But – a large but – I only use it for research in science or computing. Using the popular online encyclopedia for social, economic or political research calls for caution.

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IT’S GAME OVER FOR THE SAUDIS VS AMERICA ON OIL


Saudi Arabia and the core OPEC states are taking an immense political gamble by letting crude oil prices crash to $66 a barrel, if their aim is to shake out the weakest shale producers in the US.

"The resilience of US shale may prove greater than the resilience of OPEC," said Alistair Newton, head of political risk at Nomura.

There is no question that the US has entirely changed the global energy landscape and poses an existential threat to OPEC. America has cut its net oil imports by 8.7m bpd since 2006, equal to the combined oil exports of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.

OPEC has misjudged the threat. As late as last year, it was dismissing US shale as a flash in the pan. Abdalla El-Badri, the group's secretary-general, still insists that half of all US shale output is vulnerable below $85.

This is bravado. US producers have locked in higher prices through derivatives contracts. Noble Energy and Devon Energy have both hedged over three-quarters of their output for 2015.

Further, efficiency is improving and drillers are switching to lower-cost spots, confronting OPEC with a moving target. "The (price) floor is falling and is not nearly as firm as the Saudi view assumes," says Citigroup.

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THE IRONY OF HOW FRACKING SAVED OBAMA


Without fracking of oil and gas deposits, there would have been no economic growth in the U.S. over the past five years. Yet the oil and gas industry has been a favorite whipping boy of the environmental zealots both inside and outside of the administration.

Without those brilliant entrepreneurs and engineers in the private sector who developed the new techniques to unlock massive amounts of oil and gas at reasonable cost, it is unlikely that President Obama would have been re-elected - for it is they who have kept his economy afloat.

Mr. Obama owes his renewed presidency to the very people he gives his back of the hand to.  Is there no end to the irony of this president?

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FORGETTING FREEDOM ON PASSOVER


Passover, which began on Monday night (4/14), is the festival of freedom.

We repeat the story of enslavement, flight, redemption and freedom each year at Passover, because our sages wanted to ensure that we never forget the value of freedom, and remain vigilant in our fight for it.

In Israel, where our freedom is physically threatened, most Jews understand and live by the lessons of Passover.  But something is happening to the Jews in America.

More and more, every day we see American Jews embracing intellectual bondage. We see American Jewish leaders embracing the intolerant, who seek to constrain freedom, and shunning those who fight for freedom and the rights of Jews and other threatened peoples and groups.

To a large degree, this rejection of the lessons of the Exodus among the American Jewish community reflects the growing intolerance and tyranny of the political Left, to which most American Jews pledge their allegiance.  Here are the latest odious examples.

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A CHRISTIAN ISLAND IN A MOSLEM OCEAN


Dili, Timor-Leste.  East of Bali, west of New Guinea, and north of Australia is an island called Timor.  The western half belongs to Indonesia.  The eastern half did too, but no longer.  There are only two Christian countries in all of Asia.  One is the Philippines.  The other is here, the new nation, independent since 2002 after a horrific struggle, of Timor-Leste or East Timor.

You might wonder how this place became Christian surrounded by the world's largest Moslem country - Indonesia.  There are over 200 million Moslems in Indonesia which is almost three times the size of Texas, and only 1 million East Timorese on half an island the size of Connecticut.  But it turns out that Christianity came to this part of the world before Islam.

The Timorese had to suffer unimaginable horrors to achieve their sovereign Christian freedom.  It's a heroic saga and ought to be inspirational for us.  Here is their story.

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CELEBRATING RONALD REAGAN


This Sunday, February 6, 2011, is the centennial of the birth of the Greatest American of the 20th Century, Ronald Reagan. 

Annually on this day, TTP runs our ode to him, The Great-Souled Man.   For his 100th birthday, however, we thought that it's worth spending time watching him and listening to his words. 

Yes, it's Super Bowl weekend, but taking a break now and then to watch one of the following will give you such an appreciation for this extraordinary human being.  It will commemorate him in your mind in a special way. 

We begin the celebration with his hilarious appearance on the What's My Line television show in 1953 - yes, 1953. 

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GOT A QUESTION FOR ME?


Thanks to TTP'er and entrepreneur Eric Martell, we're pleased to announce The TTP Teleconference.

It's a sort of "mini-rendezvous" using an interactive format based on a web-site where you can ask questions and a teleconference call where I can answer them.

We're now ready to try our first free teleconference.  It will be on Monday, April 7th at 9:00PM Eastern Time.  The way it will work is simple.

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