In her Pulitzer Prize-winning book, "The Guns of August," Barbara Tuchman chronicles how a cascading series of seemingly minor developments led inexorably to World War I and the worst carnage known to man up to that time. In the future, historians may point to the present "Diplomacy of September" as the catalyst for the next horrific conflict now in the offing in the Middle East, and potentially beyond.

Specifically, this means three agenda items slated to take place in the United Nations or on the margins of its meetings in coming days.  Combined, their synergy could lead to a horrific war.

Whoa.  Let's hope the rest of 2011's weeks aren't as intense as this one.  Here's one key focus.  Remember two weeks ago (12/31/10), the HFR predicted that 2011 would see Black Swans of the Right?

That "black swan" game-changing events out of the blue precipitating a crisis, which the left specializes in using to expand government power, would now turn in our favor instead?

That's what happened when the Loughner Left jumped the shark with the Arizona Massacre.  The very term "Loughner Left" has gone viral on the Web.  The label I gave the Enemedia on Tuesday (01/11) has stuck and quickly. 

What didn't stick is the Enemedia's grotesque attempt to blame the Arizona Massacre on Sarah Palin, the Tea Parties, and all conservatives in general.  The great majority of Americans laughed at the accusation - and so did John Boehner and the Republicans in Congress.

Thus Boehner & Cantor are proceeding with the straight up-and-down vote on HR 2, to take place next Tuesday (1/18).  They even shrugged at the Dems' demand they change the bill's name due to it's "violent" rhetoric.  It remains entitled: Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act.

Note the word:  repealing.  As we saw in Making Boehner's Bones, Boehner intends to repeal ObamaCare outright, not just defund it piecemeal.

Where is the historical evidence to show that big increases in government spending as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) lead to faster economic growth and more job creation? Answer: There isn't any.

Compare the first four quarters after the bottom of the recession in 1982 that resulted in an average quarterly growth rate of 7.8 percent, versus an average quarterly growth rate of just 3.2 percent in the first four quarters after the bottom of the 2009 recession.

In addition, unemployment fell sharply - 2 percent under the Reagan tax-rate-cut solution in 1982-83 versus no drop under President Obama's greatly increased government spending "solution" - in the first four quarters of the recovery from the bottom of each recession. Tax rate cuts trump government spending increases.

Tell this to those who want even more spending, such as New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, and you'll get Krugman's silly rebuttal:

Why have conservatives become such captives of fear? Before 9/11, conservatism stood for stalwart courage and confidence in the United States of America. Across the past decade, however, we succumbed to a weird mania that wildly exaggerates threats and revels in our purported strategic vulnerability to furtive religious perverts sinking along with their doomed civilization.

The enthusiasm with which many of my fellow conservatives paint militant Islam as a mighty movement capable of a takeover of Europe and America is a grotesque wallow in political masochism.

Islam is on the ropes of history, battered, bleeding and disfigured. And it's never going to be a contender again. Yet, many Americans appear determined to cower in our corner of the ring. It's baffling:  We're winning in every possible respect, but tell ourselves we're losing.

Hasn't this been quite a first week of 2011?  It started bizarrely for me with a flood of emails and calls Monday morning (1/03) asking if I was still alive or dead in a dumpster.  The Drudge Report was carrying this headline in red letters:

Reagan Aide Jack Wheeler Murdered, Body Found in Landfill

I had to reassure everyone that: 

It's not me.  I'm not in a dumpster in a landfill -- I'm home in my easy chair  writing this. John Wheeler was always getting confused with me in Washington as he liked to be called by his nickname Jack (like John/Jack Kennedy). I ran into him several times at different DC functions and found him to be a very nice fellow. But I'm no John, just Jack.

This is a terrible tragedy and a mysterious one. But for all those who've emailed their concern, it's not me, I'm fine.

Do you think more government spending helps economic growth or harms it?

Last Friday (7/23), the White House again increased its federal budget deficit forecast and reduced its economic growth forecast for 2011. It is abundantly clear that the economic program the Democrat Administration and Democrat Congress instituted 18 months ago - primarily massive increases in government spending - is not working as advertised.

Surprise, surprise.  Isn't it interesting how Democrats are always surprised by their ignorance?

US election season is clearly upon us as President Barack Obama has moved into full campaign mode. Part and parcel of that mode is a new bid to woo Jewish voters and donors upset by Obama's hostility to Israel back in the Democrat Party's fold.

Trying to portray Obama as pro-Israel is not a simple task.  From the outset of his tenure in office, Obama has distinguished himself as the most anti-Israel president ever.

It is an open question whether American Jews will be willing to buy the bill of goods the administration is trying to sell them through their media proxies in next year's presidential elections.

But if next Tuesday's (8/13) special election for New York's Ninth Congressional District is any indication - remember Weinergate with Anthony Weiner resigning his seat? - the answer is apparently that an unprecedented number of American Jews are unwilling to ignore reality and continue supporting this anti-Israel president.

Finally, finally,  finally... 2010 is over.  At last we can get on with 2011, the year America's Rescue begins.  I can hardly wait.

So can the TTP Forum's "Mae" - Lynda Mae Calhoun, who thanks in no small part to your prayers had a successful surgery and is well on the road to recovery.  Congratulations, Mae!

Paul Ryan can't wait for 2011 either.  You learned about what he's up to in Barry’s Dream yesterday (12/30).  Now there's an Update.  House Dems got the vapors last night when they learned that Ryan, as Chairman of the Budget Committee, will have the power to set spending ceilings without a vote of the full House.

This is a big deal.  Any budget that comes out of Congress now cannot exceed Ryan's limits, which will force really serious spending cuts. 

Add this to Boehner's replacing the Dems' "pay-go" fraud (they exempted all their giant spending bills from it), with the Pubs' "cut-go" rule.  This requires that any increase in one government program (including entitlements!!) mandates a concomitant decrease in another.  Cut-go forbids any entitlement spending increase be made up with tax increases.

All next year, it's going to be like witnesses to Dante's Inferno to sit in the House Gallery and gaze down upon Dems writhing in agony on the House Floor like it's the bottom rung of Hell.  When they realize the torture is likely to be eternal - i.e., for the rest of their political lives - expect a lot of them to call it quits.

Did you know there are nine states that have no state income tax? The non-income-tax states (see chart below) are geographically and economically diverse, ranging from the state of Washington in the Pacific Northwest, to Texas and Florida in the South, and up to New Hampshire in the Northeast.

Why is it that some of the states with the biggest fiscal problems have the highest individual state income tax rates, such as New York and California, while some of the states with the least fiscal problems have no state income tax at all?  Further, on average, schools, health and safety, roads, etc. are no better in states with income taxes than those without income taxes.

Where is all the extra money from these state income taxes going? It is going primarily to service debt, and to pay for inflated salaries and employee benefits.  Thus, as two recent studies by my colleagues at the Cato Institute show, the keys to state solvency are no state income taxes and no public worker unions.

[This is the full text of Sarah Palin's speech in Indianola, Iowa, on Saturday, September 3. I consider this to be one of the greatest political speeches of modern times.  The video follows after the text. ---JW]

The reality is that we in America today are governed by a permanent political class, who derive power and wealth from their access to our money - to taxpayer dollars. 

They use it to bail out their friends on Wall Street and their corporate cronies, to reward campaign contributors, and to buy votes via earmarks. There is a name for this: It's called corporate crony capitalism.

This is not the capitalism of free men and free markets, of innovation and hard work and ethics, of sacrifice and of risk. No, this is the capitalism of connections and government bailouts and handouts, of waste and influence peddling and corporate welfare.

I believe in the free market, and that is why I detest crony capitalism. And Barack Obama has shown us cronyism on steroids.  It will lead to our downfall if we don't stop it now. We will not solve our economic problems until we confront the cronyism of our President and our permanent political class.

Between bailouts for Wall Street cronies and stimulus projects for union bosses' security and "green energy" giveaways, he took care of his friends. And now they're on course to raise a billion dollars for his re-election bid so that they can do it all over again. Are you going to let them do it all over again? Are you willing to unite to do all we can to not let them do it again so we can save our country?

Merry Christmas Eve!  It's a good time to turn our eyes towards Heaven, for the Congress from Hell has finally ended.

The Enemedia is celebrating the 111^th Congress and its Lame Schmuck Session as "the most productive in history," modern or even ever.  That's certainly true if you, as does the Enemedia, have a Hate-America agenda.  For anyone Pro-America, the 111^th has been the most destructive in US history, modern or even ever.

So - the multi-trillion dollar, fate-of-America question is:  will the 112^th ride to America's rescue and undo the damage?  The scientifically precise answer is... Maybe.

The Zero Presidency and Reid-Pelosi Congress have made many folks aware of this terrifying truth:  that Democrats are more dangerous to America than terrorists.

The damage any conceivable attack on America perpetrated by Moslem crazies is miniscule compared to the damage Democrats have already wrought upon our country in the last two years - and they intend via their Man in the White House to perpetrate vastly more.

This just-ended Lame Schmuck Congress adds an instructive codicil to this:  that RINO Republicans are just as dangerous as America-destroying Democrats.