THE UMBRELLAS OF HONG KONG EXPOSE CHINA’S CATCH-22
China's Xi Jinping cannot make any serious concessions to Hong Kong's democracy movement. The Umbrella Revolution spreading from the affluent Island to the poorer quarters of Kowloon is an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party.
"If he were to give way, it would set off contagion across the mainland," said George Walden, a veteran British diplomat who survived the Cultural Revolution inside China and later negotiated Hong Kong's future with Deng Xiaoping.
"The authorities see this as a matter of life and death, a fuse that can take down their world," said Zhao Chu, a Chinese columnist and star on Weibo - China's Twitter.
For China's Communist Party, the Hong Kong drama exposes its Catch-22, the impossible contradiction of its policies. Yet the crisis comes at a treacherous moment for Hong Kong as well.
The enclave is up to its neck in China's credit bubble, channeling $1.2 trillion in hard currency loans to Chinese companies. The International Monetary Fund said the "extreme tail event" of a credit shock in China would "entirely wipe out capital in Hong Kong's banking system."