CHINA’S ECONOMY IS CRACKING. THE EXPERTS STILL DON’T SEE WHY
Wall Street was shocked this week by China’s April economic data.
I wasn’t. Xi Jinping certainly wasn’t. Donald Trump probably wasn’t.
Beijing reported numbers that show its exports can no longer offset its deteriorating domestic consumption.
numbers are so bad that not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted the result, across industry, retail sales, and investment.
Industrial production rose just 4.1 percent. But retail sales rose only 0.2 percent. Fixed-asset investment unexpectedly shrank 1.6 percent in the first four months of the year. Car sales plunged 15 percent. Household confidence remains broken.
And these are the cooked official numbers. Reality is much worse.
The “experts” were stunned. They shouldn’t have been.
The problem is not that economists missed a monthly data point. The problem is that the people paid to understand China still do not understand the larger story.
They see industrial production, retail sales, property, tariffs, rare earths, oil, and shipping lanes as separate issues. They are not. They never are. But under Trump, they have become one comprehensive story.
That story is China’s Great Reversal.
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