THE GLOBAL SLUMP AND THE US STOCK BOOM ILLUSION
Asia's economic recovery is losing momentum and Europe's slump is proving deeper than expected, raising concerns that soaring stock markets globally have jumped ahead of economic reality.
Japan's closely-watched index for machinery orders fell 13% in January, nearing levels last seen after the Lehman Brothers crisis. "It is a shockingly poor number and illustrates the divergence between the improvement in sentiment in financial markets and what is actually happening on the ground," said Julian Jessop from Capital Economics.
China's industrial output rose 0.6% in January and 0.8% in February, the slowest pace since early last year. Retail sales growth dropped to 12.3%, the weakest since early 2004. "The goal of consumer-led growth remains a pipe dream for now," said the group's China economist, Qinwei Wang. "The economic rebound may already be stalling."
The US economy is holding up, as cheap shale gas drives a manufacturing revival, but Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research said America still has to navigate the most drastic fiscal squeeze since the Second World War. "We think tightening will be 2.5% of GDP this year and that will hit profits," he said. "We expect a 10-20% correction in the S&P 500."