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EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AND THE SIZE OF GOVERNMENT


If you knew economic growth and new job creation begin to slow when total government spending is larger than about 25 percent of the economy, and you knew total government spending in the United States is about 36 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) - would you propose policies to make government larger or smaller to create more jobs and boost economic growth?

Over the last few decades, many economists have done studies on the "optimum" size of government. A new study just completed shows the optimum size of government is less than 25 percent of GDP. Optimum is defined as that point just before government becomes so large as to reduce the rate of economic growth and job creation.

Rather than increasing the size of government, the empirical evidence shows that sharply reducing taxes, regulations, and government spending down to at least 25 percent of GDP would do the most to spur economic growth and create more jobs over the long run.

There is virtually no empirical evidence - in the United States or anywhere else - to support the belief of economists of the Keynesian school that a big increase in government spending will make matters better, rather than worse. 

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A STRANGE AND ORDINARY WASHINGTON DINNER PARTY


A couple of nights ago, I attended a dinner party at the Capitol Hill home of a friend of mine.  There was good wine, good food, and good conversation.  Every night there are dinners like this held all over Washington, the normal rationale for which is a guest of honor. 

In this case, the guest of honor was  the leader of a political party in Pakistan, Imran Khan.  This resulted in a quite strange yet equally ordinary evening in DC.

The charismatic and strikingly handsome Imran Khan is one of Pakistan's greatest celebrities.  While other countries go crazy over soccer, Pakistan's sport is cricket - so the entire country went delirious with joy when its national team won the 1992 Cricket World Cup.  Imran Khan captained the team and almost singlehandedly won the final game.

The Oxford-educated cricketer then married, in 1995, the daughter of one of England's richest men, billionaire Sir James Goldsmith - Jemima Goldsmith converting to Islam beforehand.  The following year, with $8 million of Sir James' money, he founded his own political party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice).

As he spoke to us and fielded questions, attired in a Saville Row suit and with an accent of impeccable Oxbridge English, he was urbane, witty, charming, and articulate.  He is also an airhead.

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PUTIN IS SCREWING OBAMA IN CENTRAL ASIA


Last Friday (6/19), Kyrgyzstan's interim president, Roza Otunbayeva, flew to the site of this month's ethnic violence -- and raised the estimate of the dead to 2,000.

Some 400,000 ethnic Uzbeks have become refugees, with 100,000 safely across the border in Uzbekistan and 300,000 trapped in Kyrgyzstan. Their homes have been burned, their relatives beaten, raped or slaughtered.

The Kyrgyz military and police stood by and let it happen -- or pitched in. The interim government couldn't control them, once the ethnic cleansing began.

And it matters to us. Remote Kyrgyzstan has permitted our forces to use Manas air base to shuttle troops and supplies into Afghanistan. The base is vital, but our continued presence was already iffy. Now the Yankees may be told to go home.

This latest bout of butchery also matters because it fits in with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's strategy of re-establishing Russian hegemony over Central Asia. That's why he denied a Kyrgyz request for Russian peacekeepers.  That's why he's screwing Obama in Central Asia.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 08/28/09


We are told that we must say something good about the recently dead.  OK, here goes.  Ted Kennedy is dead.  Good.

When his terminal brain cancer was announced in May 2008, the HFR commented thusly, for it is worth repeating now:

The HFR's goblet is raised this week in sympathy to this young lady and not to her murderer.  She is Mary Jo Kopechne.  Her death at the hands of a drunk Ted Kennedy served one purpose for which America must be forever grateful:  it prevented his ever being elected President of the United States...

The HFR goblet contains no mawkish, treacly, fawning oleaginous encomiums to a man who has done more objective damage to his country than any American alive today.The HFR does not gloat upon the pain and suffering of any fellow human being - but nonetheless raises a full glass of gratitude that he will soon no longer be in the Senate and in a position to do further damage to America.
Of course, the Zerocrats are now using his death to exactly that:  further damage to America.  That the Democrat Party could lionize this evil anti-American, so personally revolting the London Daily Mail's obituary of him is entitled "The Senator of Sleaze," explains the pit of irretrievable immorality into which it has sunk.

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TAXPAYERS ARE CHUMPS


You work hard, take care of your family, and pay all the taxes the government says you owe as is typical of honest, upright citizens.

But what happens to your tax money? It is now going to "bail out" firms that pay their senior executives millions of dollars a year. Congress also intends to spend your tax dollars on an $825 billion "stimulus program" filled with many dubious projects and plain old-fashioned "pork."

Many good economists who have looked at the details of the stimulus package believe it has much more "de-stimulus" than stimulus in it and will make the American economy worse off rather than better off.

While you may have thought you are required by law to pay taxes on all your income, you learn the "important" folks in Washington seem to think paying taxes is optional - for them.

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ELENA KAGAN AND MOSLEM LAW


Hats off to Senator Jeff Sessions! The top Republican on the Senate's Judiciary Committee has opened up an important new front in the debate over Solicitor General Elena Kagan's fitness to serve on the Supreme Court: Her attitude towards the repressive legal code authoritative Islam calls Shariah and her enabling of efforts to insinuate it into this country.

By so doing, the Alabama legislator has given his colleagues and the country an opportunity not only to flesh out and evaluate the thin public record of President Obama's second nominee to a lifetime appointment on the nation's highest court. The Senator has also afforded us all what Mr. Obama might call a "teachable moment."

Specifically, this Supreme Court nomination offers a prism for examining the concerted and ominous campaign underway to bring Shariah to America, thanks to the troubling role Ms. Kagan played during her tenure as dean of Harvard's Law School.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 08/21/09


There's something in Guinness that enables the Irish to be preternaturally perceptive.  That's why I turned to the HFR's resident Irishman, Buck O'Fama from County Cork, for an answer to a weird mystery.

"Hey, Buck!" I asked.  "What the heck does ‘all wee-weed up' mean?"

After a long contemplative sip of Guinness, Buck observed, "Well, we know the lad's a stoner, right?  A midnight toker.  It's South Chicago street slang for being ‘all f#&!d up' or sky-high on weed.  But the President can't publicly say:  ‘There is something about August going into September where everybody in Washington gets all f#&!d up...' so he substitutes ‘all wee-weed up' trying to be so cute-clever-cool funny."

Buck had another sip.  "Yep, this one's a classic.  Everyone is going to be saying his presidency is what's wee-weed up.  For the truth is, he's really wee-weed himself."

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THE VIEW FROM 2013


April 1, 2013.  Unemployment is approaching 25 percent, inflation is close to 40 percent, major portions of the U.S. are having power "brownouts," and Americans are forced to go to foreign countries for timely and quality medical care.

How did the world's largest and most prosperous economy fall into such a morass in only a very few years?

Collapse of the American economy in 2013 began with several major policy mistakes by the Fed, the "Bush 43" administration, and Congress in the years from 2004-08, which were compounded with even greater policy mistakes by the Obama administration, Congress and the Fed from 2009 thereafter.

After promises of "change," the new Obama administration, the Democrat Congress and the Fed only made changes for the worse.

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OBAMA IN KENYA


Barrack Hussein Obama Junior will not win or lose the Democrat Party's presidential nomination in Iowa or New Hampshire or elsewhere in the US.  He'll win or lose it in Kenya. 

That he'll lose it there is the fear of his campaign advisors who wear green eye-shades.  That he'll win there is the hope of his campaign advisors who have both brains and cojones.

Last week in The 2008 Carpe Diem Filter, we noted that an ideal presidential candidate would be someone who knows how to carpe diem - who looks at problems as opportunities, who would best be able to recognize and maximize the opportunity in a crisis.

Fate has just given Obama such a make-or-break opportunity.  Will he confidently use it, or will he wimp out, showing the world he's not the hero of his believers' mythology, but the Obambi phony his detractors claim?

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A TRILLION DOLLARS’ WORTH OF BAD NEWS


Afghanistan just got its worst news since the Soviet invasion three decades ago: American geologists have charted as much as a trillion dollars' worth of mineral deposits in that tormented landscape.

Up to now, Afghanistan's internal factions and neighbors have been fighting over worthless dirt, Allah and opium. Assigning the battlefield a trillion-dollar value is not a prescription for reconciliation. Expect "The Beverly Hillbillies" scripted by Satan.

Even were Afghanistan at peace, its endemic corruption would generate a grabocracy -- a Nigeria, not a Norway. Throw in inherited hatreds and the appetites of its neighbors, and Afghanistan may end up more like eastern Congo, a playground for state-sanctioned murderers and looters.

Beyond reportedly vast deposits of rare minerals (lithium, etc.) essential to popular technologies, there's copper, cobalt, iron and gold in them thar hills. Afghanistan never before offered so much to fight over.

Afghanistan's one hope was that, eventually, outsiders would leave it alone. That hope's gone now. Development of a full-blown mining industry will take decades, but that just means decades of violent competition.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 08/14/09


A buddy of mine, whenever you'd ask how he was, would answer, "If I felt any better, I'd faint."

I suspect lots of TTPers are feeling so good this week they're on the point of passing out.  Let's all enjoy this while we can.  For maybe the Zerocrats will capitulate in the face of the first inkling of a Second American Revolution - for inklings are only what has begun.

But we must never forget that they are fascists for whom the aggrandizement of power is their life's purpose.  And we must expect them to act accordingly.  Lock and load.

That said, let's start the fun with the most amazing presidential gaffe of modern times, leaving any of George W. Bush's parsecs behind...

...Here's a question to ask a Congressman at a town hall: why is he
focusing on health care at all?  Why the gargantuan diversion away from what their total focus should be on, jobs and the economy?

Unemployment is rocketing up into double digits, foreclosures are exploding, retail sales are crashing, the economy is imploding, the federal deficit for this year is $1.27 trillion and climbing - and these guys are passionate not about doing whatever it takes to fix this but health insurance and carbon caps?

...Oh, by the way, who knew Bernie Madoff was Chinese?

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ARE CONGRESSMEN WORTH WHAT WE PAY THEM?


Members of Congress each will receive a $4,700 pay raise this month, which will give them a salary of $174,000 per year. Do you think they are worth it?

Most of us would like to be in the position of voting for our own pay raises from an employer who has almost unlimited access to money, so when many others are taking pay cuts or losing jobs we would not have to worry.

Given that members of Congress were in a large part responsible for the current economic mess, it is hard to see how they can justify a raise, which they claim is merely a cost-of-living increase.

Part of the problem is that they give themselves pay raises based on the rate of inflation. If these increases depended on the rate of change (increase or decrease) in real per capita disposable income (i.e., after taxes) of the average citizen, Members of Congress would have an incentive to maximize economic growth rather than encourage inflation.

In the next few weeks, members of Congress will have an opportunity to pass a "stimulus package" that enhances economic growth or one that makes things worse.  Which do you think they will choose?

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THE 2008 CARPE DIEM FILTER


I personally believe that neither The PIAPS, Obambi Hussein, nor the Breck Boy have any reasonable chance of getting elected.  And I cannot take seriously a Preacher Boy candidacy by another Arkansas populist con man. 

Yet when I think how America dodged a bullet from the likes of Algore and another from F'n Kerry, it's also hard to believe that Providence will push us aside from still another.

Fortunately, Providence has always watched over America in spite of itself.

For that to continue, the most minimal requirement for a president is to resist the liberal compulsion to apologize for America's existence in the world.  We can upgrade the requirement to a determination to defend America's national security. 

The ideal requirement would be a president who knows how to carpe diem - who looks at problems as opportunities to pro-actively advance America's security and interests in the world.

There will be plenty of such opportunities in 2008 and the following years of the next presidency.  Let's judge our choice of candidates on who would best be able to not just defend in a crisis, but to recognize and maximize the opportunity in a crisis to America's benefit.

One such crisis has just presented itself in Pakistan.  Here are three more examples headed down the 2008 pike:

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WHERE ARE THE CHRISTIAN TERRORISTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST?


Last weekend, the Feds popped two more US citizens who yearned to kill their fellow Americans for Allah. 

Add them to the would-be Times Square car bomber, the guess-what's-in-my-knickers Christmas Day airline bomber, no end of got-‘em-in-time apprehensions, plus the Ft. Hood butcher, Major Nidal Hasan... both the Feds and the media barely hint at what all these fanatics have in common.

Dare to suggest that radical Islam might be to blame, and you're a bigot.  Just as pointing out that Palestinian terrorism led to Israel's hard line stand makes you a fascist.  But those who reject radical Islam's role as the driving force behind today's terrorism must answer one obvious question:

Where are the Christian terrorists?

The ignored persecution, deprivation and massacres aren't in Gaza, the global left's favorite petting zoo.  The cover-up victims are the Middle East's Christians.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 08/07/09


Here's a shocker.  The HFR, after checking to make sure its glass is really just half-full, raises it this week to... this is not easy, how did this glass get so heavy?... to... take a deep breath... to Hillary Clinton.

How is that possible?  Two words:  Eritrea and Honduras.

***
Oh, what about that other Clinton?  The one hogging the headlines in Norkland?  Was there some sinister sellout, some secret deal Slick made with the Norks to the grave detriment of his country?  The answer is no.

***
The more the HFR sees these town hall protests escalate, the more it thinks that concern over ZeroCare is just the proximate cause.  The real underlying cause is anger over how their country (and in many cases themselves personally as voters) was suckered into electing Zero in the first place.

And the more the HFR sees how this anger is escalating, the more it looks at Zero as LBJ redux, only faster.  For the anger is not going away until Zero does.  It took 3 years to get rid of Lyndon Johnson (1/65 to 3/68 when he announced he wouldn't run again, and he coasted from then on).  The anger today, however, will not wait that long, not even close.

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