CONTAINING PUTIN
Russian President Vladimir Putin's clear goal is to re-establish as much of the Russian Empire (1721-1917) as he can. At its greatest extent, the Russian Empire included the territories of the old Soviet Union, most of Eastern Europe, Finland and Alaska (up to 1866).
Mr. Putin knows the next U.S. president is unlikely to be as indecisive and reluctant to act as President Obama. He also faces falling demand for Russian oil and gas and unexpected price declines, which may cause him to run through Russia's considerable financial reserves. Accordingly, the pressure is on Mr. Putin to act quickly.
The Russian economy is now little more than a petro-state, relying on oil and gas, which account for 68 percent of its total exports, and more than half of its government revenue. Much of Russia's manufacturing base evaporated after the end of the Soviet Union. The ruble has fallen more than 30 percent against the dollar since the beginning of this year. As a result, inflation is accelerating (more than 8 percent at the moment) as imports become more and more expensive.
Thus Mr. Putin is both dangerous and vulnerable. He must be contained. Let's see how.
