THE BOND BLOODBATH
One by one, the giant investment funds are quietly switching out of government bonds, the most overpriced assets on the planet.
Nobody wants to be caught flat-footed if the latest surge in the global money supply finally catches fire and ignites reflation, closing the chapter on our strange Lost Decade of secular stagnation.
As of now (late November), roughly $6 trillion of government debt was trading at negative interest rates, led by the Swiss two-year bond at -1.046%. The German two-year Bund is at -0.4%.
The Germans and Czechs are negative all the way out to six years, the Dutch to five, the French to four and the Irish to three. Bank of America says $17 trillion of bonds are trading at yields below 1%, including most of the Japanese sovereign debt market.
This is a remarkable phenomenon given that global core inflation - as measured by Henderson Global Investor's G7 and E7 composite - has been rising since late 2014 and is now at a seven-year high of 2.7%.
Inflationistas in the West have been arguing for six years that the QE-fuelled monetary base is about to break out and take us straight to Weimar or Zimbabwe. They failed to do their homework on liquidity traps.
Yet their moment may soon be nigh. Catalysts are coming into place. Globalization is mutating in crucial ways.







