Poll after poll indicates that official Washington is held in very low regard by the American people.  One reason is that our leaders are seen as out of touch with the realities confronting ordinary folks - and with what those folks' common sense suggests are appropriate responses to such realities.

There could scarcely be a more graphic example of that disconnect - and its ominous implications - than the contortions the U.S. government is now going through in the wake of the murder of 13 people and the wounding of dozens more at Fort Hood last week. 

For example, the FBI declared immediately after the attack that it was not an act of terrorism.  Other officials are promoting the idea that it is simply a case of an individual afflicted by post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or deranged by the prospect of an upcoming deployment to a war zone. 

Mr. Obama insists that we should reserve judgment, evidently because the facts are open to varying interpretations.

Such statements are an affront to most Americans' intelligence which commonsensically applies a prosaic form of the scientific method:  They look for the explanation that best fits the facts. 

In recent years, the old "let's tax them more" crowd was on the defensive. But now, with a politically weakened president, the tax increase lobby is out in full force.

All the Democrats running for president have promised to increase taxes. Almost every week, some senator or representative advocates more taxes to impose upon the American people.

The tax increasing Democrats are betting the new generation of voters does not remember how the old, high tax rates affected the economy. The U.S. has only suffered three "down" quarters of economic growth since 1982 - a record never before enjoyed.

To pull off the "new taxes will not hurt" charade, the Democrats need to convince people the Reagan and Bush tax cuts had nothing to do with the unmatched economic growth and job creation.

If Benjamin Franklin were with us today, he would rephrase his famous quote and say, with Democrats, nothing is certain but lies and taxes.

As President Obama belatedly appeared at Fort Hood today (11/10), he did not dare to speak the word "terror."  He did not use the word "Islamist." He did not even mention Islam at all.

We've already learned that Islamist terrorist Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan attended the Northern Virginia mosque of Imam Anwar al-Aulaqi, a fiery al Qaeda supporter who later fled the United States.

We know that Hasan's peers, subordinates and patients repeatedly raised red flags that his superiors suppressed. We know he was a player on Islamist-extremist Web sites. The FBI's uncovering one extremist link after another.

But to call this an act of terrorism, the White House would need an autographed photo of Osama bin Laden helping Hasan buy weapons in downtown Killeen, Texas. Even that might not suffice.    

This week we'll be talking a lot about numbers.  It's a mark of a primitive brain to be superstitious about particular ones, to believe that certain numbers are "lucky" or "unlucky."

For all their vaunted rationality, most Chinese for example have a Stone Age superstition that the number 8 brings good fortune.  So they quite purposefully are having their Olympics begin today, 08/08/08, precisely at 8:08pm Beijing time.

People with primitive beliefs are vulnerable.  If the Chicom Olympics don't live up to expectations, don't bring China the world's adoration and respect, then the Chicoms risk losing the "Mandate of Heaven" - the superstitious belief that fate favors them.

Watch the Games unfold over the next two weeks with that context in mind.  There's a lot more drama going on than just in the athletic contests.

***

Now for fun with numbers.  Magic numbers.  The most magic number in America right now is 112.

Alpbach, Austria. Nestled in the middle of the Alps, this is about as scenic as a place can be. The homes and lodges, all of which have the distinctive Alpine architecture, are graced with lovely hanging red and white flowers. There is no crime, no graffiti, no litter and no apparent poverty.

In short, it is the perfect place for the 63rd annual Alpbach European Forum, where many European opinion leaders gather each summer to discuss the problems of, and opportunities for, Europe.

Alpbach, of course, is no more representative of Europe than is the Disney-created town of Celebration, Florida, representative of America. They are both attempts to produce the ideal community.

Many conference participants seek to fashion their ideal version of Europe, yet fail to understand that the philosophers of the Scottish Enlightenment and the economists of the Austrian School (along with their University of Chicago comrades) many years ago set forth the rules that need to be followed for Europe and the rest of the planet to achieve peace, tolerance and ever-increasing prosperity.

Ironically, America learned the lessons from these Europeans better than did Europe, and now many Asians are learning them and becoming ever freer and more prosperous as a result. Yet today, many in Europe claim they have a more humane economic system than one with the rough edges of American style capitalism. However, reality shows a very different picture.

As USS New York, forged with steel from the Twin Towers, prepares to join the fleet, she will enter a world of crises. As we obsess over worthless Afghan real estate, truly vital problems loom abroad.

Violent challenges to our security and strategic position are slighted or ignored, while a combination of politics, pride and inertia bind us to a distant land of marginal relevance.

The crises highlighted below are not in order of priority. Any of them could take a painful bite out of Washington's complacency:

This week it became abundantly clear what a certain megalomaniacal naïve neophyte narcissist presidential aspirant should most appropriately be named.

Predecessor names have been Obambi, The Obamarama, Obamessiah, The One, and The Child - the latter due to the rumor that when in Israel last month, he made a secret visit to Bethlehem to see where he thinks he was born.

They are all obsolete now, because as of this week, he shall henceforth be called:  Egobama.

A proverb of the ancient Greeks applies to Egobama:  He whom the gods wish to destroy they first drive crazy.  For the Greeks, it was a particular kind of craziness that caused self-destruction:  hubris.  Not rational earned pride but lunatic self-importance, egomania.

***

The HFR breathes a sigh of relief that at last the invertebrate incompetent crook running Israel, Ehud Olmert, is stepping down.   Getting this despised man out of power has been like trying to pry an abalone off a rock (any diver knows how hard that is).  And tragically, he'll still be around for many more months - the mortally critical months from November to January in particular.

Those are the months - specifically from November 5 to January 19 - between the US election and inauguration.  That's when Bush will have a fully free hand to conduct a US strike, or assist an Israeli strike, on Iran.

***

Should the HFR raise a glass to coincidences?  Like the coincidence between the Half-Full Report 07/16/08 revealing the CIA-ISI-Taliban-opium nexus and the CIA leaking to the New York Times two weeks later (7/30) a story about the Pakistan ISI links to the Afghan Taliban?

Isn't it funny how all of a sudden, right after but never before - for years never before - the To The Point revelation, there's a flurry of big time media stories denouncing the ISI-Taliban connection?  How about this headline in the Washington Post today (8/01):  U.S. Officials: Pakistani Agents Helped Plan Kabul Bombing.

Even funnier is how CIA Deputy Director Stephen Kappes is doing the CYA Dance after the TTP revelation, leaking these stories.  What's not funny is that it's all smoke and mirrors.

[Richard Rahn send us this from Mongolia, about which I wrote when I was there five years ago (August 2002) in Glaciers in the Gobi.  Yes, there really is a glacier in the Gobi Desert. -JW]

Ulan Bator, Mongolia. This, one of Asia's poorest countries, has been an economic laggard relative to most of its Asian competitors. But now the economy has begun to grow rapidly. The question is, can this growth be sustained and perhaps even speeded up?

Mongolia is landlocked in the center of Asia between two powerful neighbors, China and Russia. Though twice the size of France, it has less than three million people. Traditionally, the Mongols have been nomadic, tending their animal herds along the thousands of miles of Central Asian grasslands.

Despite its handicaps, Mongolia has a few things going for it.  Consider:  by 2010, it is expected that 60 percent of Mongolians will have access to high-speed Internet.  Compare that to Russia, where little more than 1% do.

Recent months have seen a number of unexpected and extremely encouraging statements coming out of the Moslem world.  Respected, mainstream Moslem leaders in a variety of countries have voiced opinions which are at odds with traditional, conservative Islam.

They have challenged aspects of shari‘a and are calling for a liberal, modernist, enlightened Islam compatible with Western norms.  Perhaps the most significant of all is a report by a group of British Moslems calling for an end to the apostasy law and for full freedom in all religious matters.

Significant cracks seem to be forming within the mainstream Islam. Important mainstream leaders are coming out against long-held key traditional views and Wahhabi-Salafi doctrines and practices, openly supporting ideas compatible with modernity.

Here are some examples.

Yes, it's the Breck Boy, making headlines in Tuesday's (7/22) National Enquirer:  Sen John Edwards Caught with Mistress and Love Child.  And get a load of the mistress' picture.  Isn't she a looker?  Can you imagine waking up next to that?

Last October, the Enquirer ran a story about Edwards cheating on his wife, whose cancer he was milking for the sympathy vote during his presidential campaign.  But the Enquirer never revealed her name, so her identity came as a big surprise to the public when it was revealed now.

A surprise to the public - but not to you.  For the day after that first NE story, on October 11, 2007 you learned her identity in The Breck Boy Is Cleared From The Presidential Field.   She's a New Age Bimbo named Lisa Druck, who now goes by the name of Rielle Hunter.  But as a TTP'er, you already knew that - a long time ago.

The HFR  raises its goblet of glee that the Breck Boy has been cleared from the vice-presidential field. 

***

Now let's have a beer on the beach - Huntington Beach in Orange County, California, where the Republican Party will triumph or die in November.

Do you fear the Internal Revenue Service, even though you have done nothing wrong?  Most Americans do, and for good reason.

For decades, the courts, congressional hearings and the press have documented a steady stream of abuses by IRS personnel and federal prosecutors dealing with tax cases.

Last week, a federal judge dismissed charges against 13 former employees of the accounting firm KPMG because the government had violated their rights, in what had been billed by the government as its biggest-ever tax shelter case.

Despite overwhelming evidence of disgraceful and illegal government behavior (in the private sector it would be called extortion), the government has decided to appeal the case. Have they no shame?

Of, course, that's a rhetorical question.  Who needs shame when you have guns and power instead?