RUSSIA HAS A HISTORY OF REVOLUTIONS AND COUPS AFTER LOST WARS
It is well documented that sanctions themselves are not enough to topple authoritarian regimes – look at North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, and Cuba. Yet sanctions have had tremendous impacts on the citizens of those countries – Venezuela experienced a 30% contraction in its economy in 2020, while the consequences of sanctions against North Korea have left most of the country malnourished.
Despite a war fever whipped by Putin's propaganda machine, sanctions can be a stress multiplier on an already vulnerable political system facing military, economic, and social setbacks.
For history has shown that Russian revolutions are not just a result of economic despair; they are also deeply intertwined with heavy Russian losses attributed to war. One only needs to look at the Crimean War in the 1850s, the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, World War I, and the Soviet War in Afghanistan in the 1980s to see how in Ukraine history may be repeating itself.
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