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THE DANGER OF JAPAN AND THE EU TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

The growth rate of nominal GDP in the US has fallen to 2.4%, the lowest level outside recession since the Second World War.

It has been sliding relentlessly for almost two years, a warning signal that underlying deflationary forces may be tightening their grip on the US economy.

Given this extraordinary backdrop, the violent spike in US and global bonds yields since last week is extremely odd. It is rare for AAA-rated safe-haven debt to fall out of favor at the same time as stock markets, and few explanations on offer make sense.

We can all agree that oxygen is thinning as we enter the final phase of the economic cycle after 86 months of expansion. The MSCI world index of global equities has risen to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17, significantly higher than on the cusp of the Lehman crisis.

Nonetheless, the Fed cannot plausibly be responsible for the global bond rout. What is true is that markets fear the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are reaching their political limits, and may not be allowed to press ahead with their experiments even if they want to.

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THE GRAVE DANGERS OF A CORRUPT FBI AND JUSTICE DEPARTMENT

More than four years ago, To The Point in Jack Wheeler’s Is Obama on Putin’s Payroll? (April 2012), explained that, “Just like the Saudis, the KGB has journalists all over the world on their payroll… Putin has tasked it with demonizing natural gas fracking with life-or-death importance.”

Since then, several independent researchers, investigative journalists and columnists – including yours truly in Putin’s Bribes to Environmentalists Exposed (February 2015) – began providing evidence and reporting on apparent funds from Russian government-controlled entities funneling into U.S. environmental groups.

The Russian intent was to help the political action activities of the environmental lobby to stop, or at least delay, oil and gas development in the United States.

There is evidence that the monies the Russians spent on the U.S. and other environmental groups did indeed slow oil and gas development, thus keeping petroleum products prices higher than they would have been otherwise.

The result — American consumers were raked over to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, thus reducing real living standards — all because a politicized Department of Justice failed to do its job.

Only those oblivious to the obvious have failed to see that the Department of Justice has become increasingly politicized. Examples abound:

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LOVE AND ANTHROPOLOGY

San Bushman – photo by Jack Wheeler

In 1988 with Jack Wheeler, I made first contact with a band of hunter-gatherers known as the San people in Africa’s Kalahari Desert.

These people had spent their whole lives completely isolated from the whirling, chaotic, mind-blowingly complex world in which most of us live – having had no contact with any people outside of few other small bands they would occasionally come in contact with.

We were a bizarre lot, the handful of us who camped out nearby – though not too nearby to be intrusive. In turn, their lives were equally strange to us (well, maybe not to Jack – this was his third “first contact”). They wore gazelle-hide loincloths and no shoes, and lived on a very sparse fare of roots, wild melons and whatever game they could snare or hunt. They had huts built out of small branches, but they usually slept outside of them, circled close to the fire.

In the evenings, they would sing and dance around the fire, chanting in a rhythmic call; at times, one of the men dancing would fall into a deep trance. He would be brought back to consciousness by the others rubbing hot coals on his body. The belief is that those who fall into a trance go to the other realm, bringing back wisdom for those who remained.

It was a grand adventure for me. It affected me deeply, helping put some of my priorities in perspective and adding to my appreciation for humanity’s richness. It also inspired me later on to write a children’s book, The San People of the Kalahari.

And it taught me something about marriage as well.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 09/09/16

In the picture-worth-a-thousand-words department, this sums up the stakes in November:

Wortha1000WordsWhich brings us to January.  No matter what the outcome in November, you want to be at TTP Rendezvous XV in Vegas, January 20-23. 

We’ll have a stellar selection of speakers to discuss all the most likely possibilities of America’s future with the next president and Congress.  Plus you get to see your old TTP friends and make lots of new ones.

You cannot not be there!  To be in Vegas with us, email Miko, miko@tothepointnews.com, or call us at 202-656-3008

Now for the Funniest News of the Week.  Hands down it’s this:  We now have absolute proof that Zero is a parasitic worm.

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TRUMP NEEDS TO KNOW THAT THE KEY TO ECONOMICS IS NOT ECONOMICS

HenryFordYesterday (9/07) in Philadelphia, The Donald gave a rousing speech on building up our military.  Heavens knows we need that after 8 years of Zero trying to ruin it. But certainly what’s not needed is just more stuff. 

Take the trillion-dollar F-35 boondoggle, for example, “the greatest white elephant in US military history.”  The good old F-16 eats its lunch.  The new innovative technology like General Atomics’ railgun leaves most big-ticket extravaganzas like aircraft carriers and manned bombers in the dust.  Manned bombers?  How 20th Century can you get?

The military’s resistance to obsoleting innovation is but one example of legions shot through our entire economy.  People are afraid of the new.  People are afraid of their jobs ending up making buggy whips.  People want to stifle competition, demanding a “divine right to stagnation.”  People are envious, they want to “eat the rich.”

Trump can talk all he wants about how to make America “great” again, how he wants to create jobs, how he wants better trade deals, how he wants to bring manufacturing back to the US from overseas.  Fine, go for it.  Almost anything he does will be better – as in gargantually better – than Hacking Hillary who will do her best to make it worse (except for her cronies).

I believe that Trump’s heart is in the right place, while Hillary’s is in a deep dark hideous hole.  Nonetheless, there’s something he needs to understand about economics – namely, that the key to it, the key to whether a society prospers or pauperizes, has nothing to do with economics.

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THE ALMIGHTY DOLLAR

AlmightyDollarThe US dollar is tightening its grip on the global financial system at the expense of the euro, entrenching American hegemony and rendering the US Federal Reserve more powerful than at any time in history.

Newly-released data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) show that the dollar’s share of the $5.1 trillion in foreign exchange trades each day has continued rising to 87.6% of all transactions.

It is the latest evidence confirming the extraordinary resilience of the dollar-based international order, confounding expectations of US financial decline a decade ago.

Roughly 60% of the global economy is either in the dollar zone or closely tied to it through currency pegs or ‘dirty floats’, and the level of debt issued in dollars outside US jurisdiction has soared to $9 trillion.

This has profound implications for monetary policy. The Fed has become the world’s central bank whether it likes it or not, setting borrowing costs for much of the global system.

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THE SYRIAN TEN THOUSAND – OBAMA’S CRIME AGAINST AMERICA

OsCrimetoAmericaAmerica's terrorist shortage may be reaching an end. If Orlando didn't satisfy you and San Bernardino left you wanting more; if you thought, why can't we have more Boston Marathon bombings, Obama has your back.  And your front and any other directions that a pressure cooker full of nails can hit you from.

The land of Washington, Jefferson, and Mohammed Atta has reached a new milestone by taking in Syrian refugee number 10,000. It’s unknown if the TSA will shower him with balloons and confetti once he passes the gate while clutching a Koran and a copy of the Caliphate Cookbook.

Either way we hit the big explosive ten thousand. And the clock is ticking.

Media outlets are puffing out sympathetic portrayals of the oppressed Syrians moving into some neighborhood near you, and far from the bosses behind the major media outlets. All these folks fleeing the violence of their own religion want is a safe place to live. And safe inevitably means non-Islamic.

There’s an obvious lesson here that neither they nor our expertly chattering classes seem able to grasp.

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WHY HASN’T ISIS BLOWN UP ROME?

TheGodfatherAt lunch the other day, a smart man asked me how come there hadn’t been terrorism in Italy, even though Islamic State keeps promising to attack the Vatican.

You’ve undoubtedly been asking yourself the same question, so I’m going to give you the answers.  Answers, plural, because hardly anything happens for a simple reason, especially in a country as tricky and complicated as Italy. So there are several reasons.

First, Italian intelligence, especially domestic intelligence, is a lot better than you might imagine. They are exceptionally good snoopers, since the state knows that the citizens don’t much like the powers-that-be, and so the agents of the state are forever peeking and listening.

Keep in mind that the Italian word for “privacy” is “privacy.” They lifted ours because the concept isn’t in the native language. Wittgenstein, along with Bill Clinton, will tell you if there is no word for it, it doesn’t exist.

Then there are the mafias – especially the big three based in Sicily, Calabria, and Naples.

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THE BEST INVESTMENT APPLE COULD MAKE

Apple CEO Tim Cook

Why would the Irish government argue against receiving $14.5 billion (yes that is a billion with a B) in income taxes that the European Union says Apple owes it?

The amount is greater than the entire Irish budget, yet they are saying, “No thank you.” Both the EU and the Apple executives, including CEO Tim Cook, have engaged in tax malpractice – the latter in a very different way than the former.  Correcting this would be the best investment Apple could make.

Forty years ago, Ireland was the poorest country in the EU; now it has the highest per capita income in the European Union, next to Luxembourg. The Irish wisely decided that the way to improve their people’s lives was by adopting economic policies that would lead to high growth.

Meanwhile, Congress and tax officials back in the United States engaged in tax malpractice by imposing a 35 percent federal corporate income tax rate — way above the revenue maximizing rate. In addition, many states have corporate income taxes, which makes the total rate even higher.

In order to survive, many companies have moved their headquarters to other countries with lower tax rates — thus depriving the United States of the tax revenue and jobs. Many politicians accuse corporate leaders of being disloyal by moving — when what they are really doing is attempting to survive and protect themselves against destructive U.S. tax and regulatory policies.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 09/02/16

Pantelleria
Pantelleria, Strait of Sicily, Italian Mediterranean.  Welcome to Europe’s hidden ultimate hideaway for the rich and famous.  No matter who you are, nobody cares. It’s totally laid back. No big fancy resorts, no tourists, no paparazzi, no autograph hounds, you’re left alone in peace, solitude, and private luxury. 

There’s just one little problem, right on the horizon you see in the distance.  It provides a useful perspective on the main story of the week in America – Trump vs. Clinton on illegal immigration.

This has been a news week of mind-numbing global intensity.  There are events you should know about in 15 countries on five continents.  Let’s see how many I can get to – starting obviously with Mexico.

The most surprised guy on the planet late last week was Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.  He issued a pro forma invitation to both Trump and Hillary for a meeting/discussion as a diplomatic nicety.  He got the reply he expected from her office, thanking him, will do our best to rearrange the busy schedule, our people will be in touch with your people, blah blah.

He fell out of his chair with Trump’s reply:  Muchas gracias, I’m on my way, I’ll see you tomorrow!  You can imagine the freakout in the presidential chambers:  “QUE???  Hay-soos Crees-toh!!!”  And however you say WTF!! in Mexican.

It was the very last thing he expected.  But when the shock subsided, here’s what Nieto told his aides: 

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HILLARY IS GOING TO LOSE

What does she stand for?  What are the genuine accomplishments in her life?  What new innovative ideas does she have to change the current direction of the country that two-thirds of voters think is wrong?

Then there are questions of ethics and morality.  Ereyesterday (8/28), Roger Simon laid out the stakes:

“The truth about the Clinton Foundation is already clear:  a medium to leverage Hillary Clinton's position as Secretary of State for personal enrichment and global control by the Clintons and their allies.  To my knowledge, nothing like this has ever been done in the history of the United States government.

 

This means quite simply, that the United States of America has abandoned the rule of law. The election of Hillary Clinton—our own Evita—will make the situation yet more grave. Consider something so basic as how you raise your children in a country where the president is most probably an indictable criminal and most certainly a serial liar of almost inexhaustible proportions. What does this say about our basic morality and how does that affect all aspects of our culture?”

It’s been a long hot political summer, with the Lying Swine Media in a 24/7 feeding frenzy to demonize Trump and coronate Hillary as having already won before the campaign really begins.  As always, summer froth abates over Labor Day weekend, with campaigns beginning in earnest the day after – one week from today, Tuesday September 6th.

So with the LSM predicting the race for the White House is over before it begins, I figure I might as well join in.  My prediction is:  Hillary is going to lose.  She is going to lose, as Dick Cheney would say, “big time.” 

Of course I’m going to caveat that big time – I’ve been wrong too many times before not to do that.  But let’s set the caveats aside for now.  Let’s first count the abundance of ways she’s going down for the electoral count.

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HIMALAYA HELICOPTER EXPEDITION

MtEverest“Scoundrel’s View” of Mount Everest – Tibet North Face on left, Nepal Southwest Face on right

Can you imagine what it is like to actually be at Mount Everest?  Or any other Himalayan giant – like Kanchenjunga, Annapurna, or Dhaulagiri – the greatest mountains on earth?  To be in the presence of any one of them is a life-memorable experience.

To reach any one, you must trek for many days, over extremely rough mountainous terrain at very high altitude.  You must be in exceptional physical condition to do so.

Which is why almost no one, even the most ambitious trekker, has ever been to all of them.  Last May, I created an alternative:  to the base camps of all eight 8,000 meter peaks in the Himalayas by helicopter, piloted by the most experienced mountain rescue pilots in the world.

Here’s our high altitude AS350 B3 coming in to land at the Khumbu Ice Fall on Mount Everest at 17,500 ft.

Chopper on SnowWhat we did in May was so astoundingly spectacular I can’t resist doing it again this November.  Would you like to come with me?

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THE MEDIA EATS ITS OWN FOR HILLARY

MediaBiasWhere does media bias come from?  Anyone who really wanted to know had that question answered when much of the media took a break from attacking Trump to attack the Associated Press.

What does the AP have in common with Trump? Both were hurting Hillary Clinton’s chances to score payoffs from dictators, arms dealers and tycoons with terrorist ties for the next four to eight years.

The Associated Press got in trouble with the rest of the media for digging up dirt on the Clinton Foundation. Instead of just repeating the usual Clinton denials, it actually ran the numbers and noted that more than half the “ordinary folks” who got meetings with her had donated to her Foundation.

Instead of reporting on the AP story, the media went to war on its own. It wasn’t just the usual suspects like Vox and Slate who have a reputation for attacking any actual reporters who stray off the reservation and actually do their jobs. This time all the big boys were on the job.

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