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HALF-FULL REPORT 11/06/15

Paris. I’m still at the NATO Conference on Global Security, where I spoke yesterday. I hope you enjoyed my Countering Russia’s Win-Lose with Win-Win. (Note: the audio has now been uploaded so you can listen to it.)

A number of attendees were shell-shocked – like the Russians – but all those from former Soviet/Russian colonies like Estonia, Romania, the Czech Republic or Ukraine reveled in the inside baseball, exchanging winks and big smiles.

In any regard, I made a lot of friends and learned quite a lot. For example…

Meanwhile, this is happening at soccer games in Poland – a huge banner raised by fans of a Christian knight with sword blocking boatloads of Moslems invading Europe. Poles know their history, how their King Jan Sobieski and his knights defeated the Ottoman army at the Battle of Vienna on September 12, 1683 and saved Europe from being conquered by Islam. Here’s the video…

Here’s the most satisfying headline of the week. You can hear the gnashing of teeth at the WaPo: From Coast-to-Coast Conservatives Score Huge Victories in Elections.

Which leads us to the HFR Hero of the Week. And a change and request. Rather than the HFR announce who it is, then you make comments in the Forum, our request is you send us an email (info@tothepointnews.com) or post on the Forum who you think it should be during the week before the HFR on Friday. Okay? We’ll appreciate your thoughts and suggestions!

Another fun HFR… here we go!

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COUNTERING RUSSIA’S WIN-LOSE WITH WIN-WIN

[This is the text of a speech I am giving today, 11/05, at a NATO conference on Global Security in Paris, sponsored by the US Defense Dept. and French Ministry of Defense. In attendance are ministers of defense and ambassadors from several European countries, as well as those from Russia and China.]

I’d like to ask you to perform a thought experiment. The key is to make it as real as you can in your mind, as if it’s actually happening.

Suppose there’s an ornate marble mausoleum in the center Berlin, Germany right now. Inside, enclosed in a glass case, is the preserved embalmed body of Adolph Hitler lying in state, with long lines of Germans waiting to reverentially pass by and pay their solemn respects to the Nazi leader.

Hard to imagine but hardly unimaginable. We all know that Hitler was trying to build nuclear weapons. Let’s suppose his scientists led by Kurt Diebner and Erich Schumann were successful, so that WWII ended with Truman nuking Hiroshima and Hitler nuking Leningrad – the war thus concluding not with the defeat of Nazi Germany but in a Mexican Standoff.

In the ensuing Cold War between the West and the Third Reich, Hitler would rapidly colonize Eastern Europe from the Baltics to the Balkans, and the entire Soviet Union. In response, the West formed NATO to protect itself from Nazi imperialism.

When Hitler died in March 1953 from warfarin poisoning slipped into his wine by the chief of the Gestapo, his body was placed in the Berlin mausoleum as a shrine of worship, and statues of him erected throughout the Nazi Empire.

Hitler and his successors of course suppressed all knowledge of the Jewish Holocaust, which was researched only by little known scholars such as Robert Conquest of Stanford. The horrific atrocity everyone knew about instead was the Holomodor, Stalin’s genocide of 12 to 15 million Ukrainians.

At last when the Nazi Empire broke down and collapsed in 1991, Nazi colonies like Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, the Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia, and Russia wasted no time in declaring their liberation, tearing down statues of Hitler, and asking to join NATO.

It was thought that Germany would now become part of the West at last, with a genuine peace that would include even its membership in NATO, but it was not to be. The successor government to the Nazis would remain antagonistic, its leader declaring that the collapse of the Nazi Empire was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." Hitler would remain enshrined in his Berlin mausoleum, Germany’s leader said, as “removing him would imply that generations had observed false values” during 58 years of Nazi rule.”

Of course you all see the analogy and some may incensed at it. And that’s the crux of the problem, the refusal to recognize the deep equivalence between Nazism and Communism, also known as Marxism-Leninism.

(LISTEN TO DR. JACK WHEELER'S SPEECH)

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COULD THE CONNECTION BETWEEN FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY BE MORE CLEAR?

There was good news for Argentina last week.

It was expected that Daniel Scioli, the Peronist candidate and political heir of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, would win the presidential election. Much to most people's surprise, Maurico Macri, the more free-market-oriented mayor of Buenos Aires, won almost as many votes as Mr. Scioli, forcing a runoff, which Mr. Macri has a good chance to win.

The Peronists (named after former dictator Juan Peron) have had political control much of the last 70 years, and it has been a disaster for the country. In 1900, Argentina was one of the 10 highest-income countries in the world, having an estimated gross domestic product per capita of roughly 80 percent of that in the United States.

Successive Argentine governments have squandered much of the wealth and potential of the economy, so now Argentina ranks approximately 57th in per capita income.

In contrast, Chile moved toward enhancing economic freedom, including increasing free trade, the rule of law and protection of private property, and curtailing corruption. The result is that Chile now has the highest per capita income in South America.

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“BAMLET” DITHERS WHILE CHINA TAKES THE SEA

If your neighbor’s house catches fire, is it wiser to call the fire department or to trust the good will of the flames to put themselves out?

Faced with strategic conflagrations scorching much of the globe, President Obama’s approach is to delay as long as possible then to attempt to negotiate with the blaze. If forced to act at last, he responds to wildfires with a water pistol.

For years, China has been constructing at least seven artificial islands atop reefs far from its mainland, in waters on which other countries have stronger claims. It’s a hostile takeover of the South China Sea with some of the most important sea lanes on the planet, vital in peace and war. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Japan and Taiwan looked to us for leadership.

Yet Obama has dithered like Hamlet. He should be nicknamed Bamlet. This situation has even greater resonance because it fits the Obama pattern of denial, delay, disarmament and defeat.

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THE DOOM OF CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC DESTINY

China’s Communist Party has scrapped its hated one-child policy (see Note below) in a bid to shore up political support, but the move comes far too late to avert a collapse of the workforce and a demographic crisis by the late 2020s.

All couples will be allowed to have a second child under new rules agreed at the party’s closely-watched 5th Plenum in Beijing. The ban on larger families in cities will remain despite pleas from Chinese academics for total freedom.

The policy shift will make no difference to the workforce for almost 20 years and by then China will already be in the full grip of a demographic crunch.

“They have merely moved to a two-child policy. The family planning authorities are still there, and there is still an apparatus of state power intruding into people’s intimate lives,” says Jonathan Fenby, a China veteran at Trusted Sources.

China may already have left it too late to ditch the one-child policy. Critics say the damage has been evident for years, leaving aside the traumatic suffering of poor women seized by police after tip-offs and forced into late-term abortions, the indignity of “menstrual monitors” and the status of “illegal” children denied ration coupons and schooling.

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THAT SCIENCE NEEDS GOVERNMENT SUPPORT IS A MYTH

Innovation is a mysteriously difficult thing to dictate. Technology seems to change by a sort of inexorable, evolutionary progress, which we probably cannot stop—or speed up much either. And it’s not much the product of science.

Most technological breakthroughs come from technologists tinkering, not from researchers chasing hypotheses. Heretical as it may sound, “basic science” isn’t nearly as productive of new inventions as we tend to think.

The linear dogma so prevalent in the world of science and politics—that science drives innovation, which drives commerce—is mostly wrong. It misunderstands where innovation comes from. Indeed, it generally gets it backward.

 For more than a half century, it has been an article of faith that science would not get funded if government did not do it, and economic growth would not happen if science did not get funded by the taxpayer. This is a myth. In fact, there is still no empirical demonstration of the need for public funding of research and that the historical record suggests the opposite.

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A HAPPY LIFE IS NOT PERFECT HAPPINESS

There is a great misunderstanding about what it means to live a happy life, and it can be summed up in the popular symbol of the smiley face.

Now, I like to smile. I love feeling that kind of glowing, delighted state of emotional bliss. It’s wonderful to be full of joy and love and laughter. But feeling those things doesn’t in and of itself make for a happy life; and just because we don’t happen to feel them in the moment doesn’t mean we are unhappy.

In fact, if simply feeling those emotions all the time was what constituted happiness, and if Aristotle was correct in saying that, "Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the whole aim and end of human existence," then it would be a simple matter to find the right combination of drugs that would perpetually bathe our neurons with joyful chemicals, and we could all be perpetually happy and fulfill the aim and end of our existence.

But this smiley face view of happiness is a mistake.

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NO ORDINARY WEAKLING

Recently published in the Register-Guard newspaper in Eugene, Oregon. Mr. Kash lives in nearby Springfield.

O-Weakling

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HALF-FULL REPORT 10/30/15

TedCruzTalk103015
Cruz’s detonation of the ludicrously biased 3 main CNBC moderators was the most enjoyable highlight of the debate Wednesday night (10/28). And it will serve a most useful purpose – tearing people’s attention away from the Kim Kardashian of presidential candidates and towards those who actually have something to say.

It may take a while for this to sink in. The Drudge Poll yesterday (10/29) said Trump was the clear winner with 48%, with Cruz at 25% and Rubio under 13%. Let’s be just as clear: anyone who thought Trump won is retarded. Read the debate transcript and see for yourself.

It’s likely then that before long we’ll be left with the Final Four: Cruz, Carson, Rubio, and Fiorina. You may be surprised by Fiorina, but she had a great debate – if you rate substance over style and personality games. Here’s examples…

Let’s get this over with fast. What words can adequately express the disgust we all feel at Paul Ryan’s pathological sellout regarding Boehner’s sellout regarding this insane funding of Zero’s deficit spending for the next two years? And the McConnell Senate then passed it in the dead of night. Obama Hails Passage of Two-Year Budget Deal is the headline that sums up the total moral corruption of the Republicans in Congress.

There’s lots more – and we end with an awesome video. Have your headphones on max.

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THE ISLAMIST FOX IN EUROPE’S HENHOUSE

DemorSultanThis is the question The Economist asked over two years ago in its cover story on June 8, 2013. It’s become clear since that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s intention is to be another Ottoman Sultan. Turkey’s elections this Sunday, Nov. 1st, may see if his goal is realized.

 

That goal extends far beyond the borders of Turkey. This map is a frightening display of it:

BlackMap102915This map – published in the London Daily Mail yesterday (10/28) – shows the origins and extent of the Moslem invasion of Europe this year – 680,000 so far with tens of thousands more on the way. It’s easy to see the conduit of the hordes from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria is Turkey.

This is no accident, Comrades. Erdogan (air-doh-wan) wants to achieve the great goal the Ottoman Sultans never could – the Islamization of Europe.

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SOMETHING DEEPLY DISTURBING IS HAPPENING IN AMERICA

[Director Comey made these remarks at the University of Chicago on October 23]

Part of being clear-eyed about reality requires all of us to stare—and stare hard—at what is happening in this country this year. And to ask ourselves what’s going on.

Because something deeply disturbing is happening all across America. Something has changed in 2015. Far more people are being killed in America’s cities this year than in many years. Let’s be clear: far more people of color are being killed in America’s cities this year.

And it’s not the cops doing the killing.

What could be driving an increase in murder in some cities across all regions of the country, all at the same time? What explains this map and this calendar? Why is it happening in all of different places, all over and all of a sudden?

Nobody says it on the record, nobody says it in public, but police and elected officials are quietly saying it to themselves. And they’re saying it to me, and I’m going to say it to you. And it is the one explanation that does explain the calendar and the map and that makes the most sense to me.

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AN INTERVIEW WITH TED CRUZ ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY

US Senator Ted Cruz, the conservative Republican firebrand from Texas, is running for president. Up until a few weeks ago, his candidacy was met with indifference as the media and political operatives all dismissed its viability. But that is beginning to change.

The voices arguing that Cruz, the favorite of Tea Party fiscal conservatives and Evangelical Christians may have what it takes to win the Republican nomination have multiplied.

Since arriving in Washington four years ago, Cruz has arguably been Israel’s most avid defender in the Senate. Last summer Cruz led the national opposition to US President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, and continues to lead it today.

I interviewed Cruz by telephone from the campaign trail earlier this week about his views on the purpose of American foreign policy, US-Israel relations, the Iran nuclear deal and the Palestinian conflict with Israel.  The transcript of our conversation follows.

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DO NOT BET THE FARM ON PUTIN IN SYRIA

Who’s winning the Middle East war?  It’s never an easy question to answer, even for the most skilled and informed analysts.  Things rarely, very rarely, go the way we expect.  Hence “the fog of war.” 

The most famous case of a military commander who got it right is Napoleon at Austerlitz, when he seems to have told his men precisely how the battle would go, hour by hour and move by move.  It so impressed Hegel that he proclaimed the French general a “world-historical figure.”

Waterloo didn’t follow that template, thereby making my point.  It behooves us to maintain a healthy skepticism about likely outcomes. 

If you had to bet, you’d probably wager that Putin and Khamenei are solid favorites in Syria. Yet shoring up Assad, which is the Iranian-Russian mission, is no easy task.  Russian and Iranian casualties are mounting and in some key areas they are in retreat from “rebels.”  Consider this current battlefield report:

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THE LIFE-SAVING BENEFITS OF MORE CO2

France’s leading television weather forecaster, Philippe Verdier, was taken off air last week (10/19) for writing that there are “positive consequences” of climate change.

His book published earlier this month, Climat Investigation (currently available only in French) denounced “the planetary scandal of global warming — a war-machine designed to keep us afraid. At its heart, it’s a science manipulated and politicized, of conflict of interest, of corruption… a self-serving engine, a new religion, the framework of a new faith.”

Last week also saw the publication of a comprehensive, thoroughly peer-reviewed report on “Carbon Dioxide — the Good News” for the Global Warming Policy Foundation by the independent American scientist Indur Goklany, to which Freeman Dyson wrote the foreword.

Goklany points out that whereas the benefits of carbon dioxide are huge and here now, the harms are still speculative and almost all in the distant future.

This is the summary from Goklany's report, followed by even more evidence for the life-saving benefits of increasing, not reducing CO2 in our planet’s air.

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SAVING PUERTO RICO SHOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT

Ultimately, if you continue to spend more than you take in -- whether you are an individual, business or government -- there will be a day of reckoning. Puerto Rico is likely to reach that day by December 1st.

Back in June, the governor of Puerto Rico, Alejandro Garcia Padilla, announced that the government debt of $73 billion had grown so large that it was no longer "repayable." At that time, many of us who have had experience with countries in fiscal crisis made recommendations (see my America's Greece) to avoid what is now almost certain to happen.

As is its pattern, the Obama administration waited until the last minute -- this past week -- to unveil its "solution," dubbed "Super Chapter 9." Chapter 9 is a provision in the U.S. bankruptcy code that allows local governments in U.S. states, but not the states themselves (including Puerto Rico), to declare bankruptcy.

Typically, this “solution” will make the problem worse rather than solving it.  The causes of Puerto Rico’s problems are clear – and so are the remedies.  Here they are.

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