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WILL CHINA JUMP OFF A FISCAL CLIFF?


Nobody can fault China's leaders for lack of bravery. The Politburo has kept its nerve as the world's most giddy experiment in credit-driven growth faces assault on three major fronts at once.

Real interest rates have rocketed. The trade-weighted rise in the yuan over the past two years has been spectacular. Fiscal policy is about to tighten drastically as the authorities clamp down on big-spending local governments.

Put together, China is pursuing the most contractionary mix of economic policies in the G20, relative to the status quo ante. Collateral damage is already visible in the sliding global prices of iron ore, copper, nickel, lead and zinc over recent months, as well as thermal coal, oil, corn and even sugar.

Zhiwei Zhang, from Deutsche Bank, says China faces a "fiscal cliff" this year as Beijing attempts to rein in spending. "This year, China will likely face the worst fiscal challenge since 1981. This is not well recognized in the market," he said.

Another indicator: China is no longer buying US Treasuries and global bonds. It has become a net seller, stepping in to offset accelerating outflows of capital. The capital deficit reached a record $91bn in the fourth quarter.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 12/05/14


Before we start tearing our hair out by the roots over House Rino perfidy, let's take a look at some good news this week.  Yes, there is some.

The New York Times finally began - just began - catching up to To The Point on Sunday (11/30) with Russian Money Suspected Behind Fracking Protests.  TTPers have known about this since April 2012 in Is Obama on Putin's Payroll? 

Yet that was just the prelude, for the next day, Monday (12/01) is when, as one headline put it: Putin's Luck Runs Out.  Here's how rapid the Putin Collapse has been...

There will be marvelous news in Louisiana tomorrow (12/06).  Scary Mary Landrieu is going to get crushed by Dr. Bill Cassidy - he's ahead by 24 points (!).

I grew up in the days of the Solid South completely run by Yellow Dog Democrats.  With Landrieu gone tomorrow, Democrats will be left without a single Governor, Senator, white Congressman, or state legislative chamber from the Carolinas to Texas.  Think about that...

Okay, time to wallow in the mire with a clothespin blocking the stench from our noses.  Thomas Sowell noted yesterday that it will take a psychiatrist to explain why Boehner & Co want millions of illegal foreign workers to compete with Americans for jobs...

There are other things we could get upset about this week, but instead, I need to tell you a story.  It's about how I met an extraordinary man and became friends with 45 years ago.  On Wednesday (12/03) at age 84 he passed away.  His name was Nathaniel Branden.

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WHAT IS THE OPTIMUM INCOME TAX RATE?


What is the maximum income-tax rate that anyone should be expected to pay?

Some questions are never settled, in part because people often ignore the theoretical and empirical evidence, and history that can help answer the question. The question of what an optimum income-tax rate would look like is one of those questions.

Rather than attempt to answer it, political demagogues merely shout: "It is only fair that the rich pay more."

Back in 1971, a Scottish economist by the name of James A. Mirrlees wrote a groundbreaking paper, in which he attempted to answer the question of what an optimum income-tax regime would look like if one desired to reduce inequalities while at the same time not discouraging work and economic growth.

Up to the time of Dr. Mirrlees' work, no one had been able to figure out the optimum trade-off between equality and efficiency. Dr. Mirrlees was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in 1996 for his work, and was knighted in 1998.  Here is what he won his Nobel and knighthood for.

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OBAMA’S IRAQIZATION OF AMERICA


When it comes to Iraq, Obama lectures the Sunnis and the Shiites on getting along and forming a government that won't exist for the sole benefit of a single group at the expense of the other.

But in America he runs exactly that sort of government.

Al Sharpton, Obama's close political ally, and the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, his mentor, are familiar types in Iraq. You can find a thousand Jeremiah Wrights on any given Friday screaming about killing the Shiites or the Sunnis. You can find a million Al Sharptons community organizing local hatreds until they explode.

Those are the ugly tribal politics that Obama has brought to America. Instead of repairing the economy, he focused on wealth redistribution. Instead of bringing Americans together as one nation, he calculatedly tore them apart around manufactured crises of race, gender, class and religion. He pitted blacks against whites, liberal Protestants against Catholics, the poor against the middle class and the cities against the suburbs.

Obama promised us a united America and gave us a divided America. He has shown that he is a slicker and more polished version of Al Sharpton.

After coming to prominence with a vision of "There is not a Black America and a White America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America," he shrugged off helping Americans as a whole and instead championed narrow tribal interests.

Just-ousted Nouri al-Maliki wasn't the Prime Minister of Iraq. He was the Prime Minister of a Shiite Iraq. Obama isn't the President of the United States. He's trying to be the President of Black America, Gay America, Latino America, Asian America, Transgender America and a thousand other Micro-Americas.

At no point in time has he been the President of the United States of America.

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SCIENCE IN AFRICA


Ilheu do Bom-Bom, Principe Island, São Tomé & Principe, Africa.  I have come here, one of the remotest and least known countries in Africa, for two reasons.

First is to make a scientific pilgrimage. There's a profound relevance to what happened here almost a century ago, and how science is perverted in America today. So we'll begin there.

"Africa" and "science" are two words you don't often see in combination.  Yet it was here that one of the most momentous experiments in the history of science took place.  Here is where the most famous scientist of modern times - Albert Einstein - became famous.  If it hadn't been for what happened here, he'd have remained unknown.  Here's the story. 

We'll get to the second reason later.  But here's a hint -- you won't believe how magical this place is.  And yes, there are pictures.

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EARNING OUR FREEDOM


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As Egyptians celebrate their liberation from the fascism of the Moslem Brotherhood, let us hope Americans will soon be celebrating their liberation from the fascism of Zero.

To The Point wishes you all a gloriously happy Fourth of July.  Have fun, celebrate America, and take the time to read the entire Declaration of Independence

While you read it, note: what counts is not that the Founding Patriots of America wrote these words - it's what they did.  What counts is they put these immortal words into action.  They pledged their lives, their fortunes, their sacred honor, and fought for America's freedom - knowing that if they failed, they would have been hung by their necks until dead on a gallows, and history would despise them as traitors.

Unless people are willing to fight and risk their lives for freedom, they don't deserve it.  Freedom must be earned, or else it will be lost.  We are losing it in America today.  Let us earn our freedom again.

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INTERNALIZED OPPRESSION


Have you noticed this? Are there situations where years ago you would never have thought, "I wonder whether this is allowed?" but now you do?  This can lead to what I call "internalized oppression" - and it requires our conscious awareness to avoid it.

"The cost of liberty is eternal vigilance," goes the saying. But this vigilance is not only external. It's one thing when the rules on the outside become oppressive - which they have - but you also play a personal role in this: your internal acceptance of an oppressive mindset is necessary for allowing an oppressive government to continue to intrude further into our lives.

It is this internal acceptance and adaptation that allows people to continue to obey an authority that is out of control.  Our Founding Fathers knew this clearly.  As the oldest and wisest among them put it:

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FINALLY A BIT FASTER AGAINST IRAN AND SYRIA


Lately, we've been doing much better at catching the Iranians, often in tandem with the Syrians, who are giving a lot of support to terrorists in Iraq.

Better yet, we are slapping penalties on them, most recently on three terrorist supporters and leaders in Iran and one in Syria, where he runs the al-Zawra television station. Americans are henceforth forbidden to do business with these rogues, and if the USG - Iraq Reconstruction Task Force can get at any of their assets, we'll grab them.

That's excellent news, and the announcement is helpfully accompanied by considerable documentation of the terrorists and their supporters singled out by our Treasury Department. Undersecretary Stuart Levey, who has been one of the driving forces behind this program, puts it in a broad context: Iran and Syria are fueling violence and destruction in Iraq. Iran trains, funds, and provides weapons to violent Shia extremist groups, while Syria provides safe haven to Sunni insurgents and financiers.

All of which and more clearly shows what I and others have been arguing for a long time:  Iran supports al-Qaeda.

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OVERCOMING VISTA BLUES


If you got a new Windows computer for Christmas, odds are very high it uses the new Vista operating program.  Odds are also very high you'll find moving stuff from your old XP computer into Vista annoying, if not downright infuriating. 

It's called the Vista Blues, and I'll do my best to help you overcome them.

One example:  Moving mail from an XP "Outlook Express" to a Vista "Mail" program may become a small nightmare since "Outlook Express" is not one of the options that can be utilized (!). There are options for this lack of a conduit.

A solution is Thunderbird, the free mail application from www.mozilla.com will allow you to import from Outlook Express with ease. The latest version is 2.0.0.9.

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HANDICAPPING THE SENATE


One of the nicest and sharpest guys in the Senate is John Ensign of Nevada.  As the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, he's in a good position to handicap the Senate races for 2008.

He did just that at a small briefing on Capitol Hill this week, promising to do so without any Pollyannic varnish.  Judge for yourself. 

Currently, of 100 Senate seats, 51 are Democrat (counting Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman), 49 are Republican.  The odds seem slim that the GOP could gain the majority, but less slim that the Dems will expand theirs.  Thirteen months is an eternity on an election clock.  There will be surprises on both sides, count on it.

There are 22 Republican seats up, including five retirements, while the Dems have only 12.  Many GOP seats are vulnerable, but the Dems' main targets are:

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WHAT IF ALLAH WAS JEWISH?

People are always telling me, "Hey, Allah, you should write another book. All the books you've written before were very popular; I'm not sure if anyone actually read the whole megillah, but everyone has to have one."

It's not like I'm out to make some gelt, though, and I thought I already wrote everything I need to say. Plus, it's not like I have the time to write; if you could even understand how much I have to do each day, you'd plotz.

Still, I thought it would be a real good chochmeh to write a column to go over a few points since so many people seem to have some facacta ideas these days.

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CHANGING WINDOWS FROM A TORTOISE TO A HARE

Windows can be as slow as a tortoise. You try all the tricks in the book, but your computer still crawls along. During some computing sessions, things sort of limp along, but in others, you can barely get the mouse to move.

Defragmenting the hard drive, uninstalling programs you don't use, closing applications you aren't using - all seem to have at least a temporary effect, but sooner or later, your PC just goes back to its old, slow ways.

It turns out that there are a bunch of things in Windows itself - especially in Windows XP, now the dominant version of the operating system in the marketplace - that actually hamper performance.

But it also turns out there's a quick fix that'll change your PC from a tortoise to a hare.

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Chapter One: CASA COLORADA

We initiate this week a new feature in To The Point: the serialization of a novel I am writing entitled The Jade Steps.

Every week from now on until completion, there will be a successive chapter. We begin today with
Chapter One: Casa Colorada. This is a historical novel, the true story of one of history’s most remarkable and influential women. Her life sounds like a fairy tale, but it’s history, it actually happened. Her name was Malinali.

The Jade Steps has a two-fold purpose. The first is to tell Malinali’s story, as fascinating as it is unknown. The second is to bring peace to the civil war raging in the soul of Mexico. I hope you all enjoy it. --- JW


Chapter One: CASA COLORADA

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MASS DEFAULT ONLY SOLUTION TO WORLD DEBT ADDICTION


In a valedictory speech last weekend of characteristically Latin American duration - a mind-numbing three hours - the Argentine president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, claimed that her country was the only one in the world to have reduced its national debt over recent years.

Only Kirchner could think this a matter of national pride - for reduction in the national debt via the mechanism of default is anything to boast of.  

Nonetheless, where Argentina treads, others will surely soon be following. The world is sinking under a sea of debt, private as well as public, and it is increasingly hard to see how this might end, except in some form of mass default.

This most certainly includes China, by the way.  China's total indebtedness has quadrupled since 2007 to $28 trillion, according to estimates by McKinsey. At 282% of GDP, China's debt burden is now bigger, relative to output, than the US.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 11/28/14


It's so obvious who the HFR Heroes of the Week are that we need to dispense the suspense and laud them right out front. 

They are the six white men, three white women, two black women, and one black man who comprised the Saint Louis County Grand Jury that refused to indict Police Officer Darren Wilson.  We must add to them the St. Louis County prosecutor Bob McCulloch, whose statement announcing the grand jury decision on Monday (11/24) is here.

They all knew their lives could be at stake with the murderous anger and multitude of death threats against them, yet they opted for the truth straight in the face of it.  That's flat out American heroism.  We owe them a grave debt of gratitude...

There are good lessons to be learned from this Ferguson Lunacy, and benefits to be gained.  Here's the most important...

There was another major event that rivaled the Ferguson grand jury decision in importance this week.  For background, who is the GOP Congressional Establishment leader you most love to hate?

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