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HOW LOW WILL GOLD GO?


The curse of hedging that blighted gold in the 1990s is making a comeback, and threatens to loom over the market like Banquo's ghost.

London-listed gold producer Petropavlovsk has said it will pre-sell 55pc of its future output planned for the second quarter of 2014, at an average price of $1,408 an ounce. This is the first time that a big producer has hedged more than half its future sales.

"We have a huge investment program and thought a little price protection in the short-term will let us sleep better at night," said chairman Peter Hambro.

Tyler Broda from Nomura said this may signal the return of "structural hedging" across the industry, with other companies scrambling to lock in forward contracts. "This could increase the pressure on the spot gold price over the coming years," he said. The risk is a vicious circle as hedging leads to lower prices, leading to more hedging.

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HALF-FULL REPORT 10/05/12


Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.  I'm here on business, but that sure won't keep me from writing this HFR.  Holy Toledo, what a week.  First, though, I have to thank Jack Kelly for his marvelous HFRs while I've been away.

Future historians may entitle what happened in Denver on Wednesday night (10/03) The 90 Minutes That Saved America.  It took the RNC all of 12 hours to take advantage of the split-screen presentation of the debate, and flood battleground state airwaves with this devastating ad called simply "Smirk"...

Schadenfreude can be so much fun.  The entire Moonbat Media was just so totally certain that their messiah was going to obliterate Mitt.  Their rage and disappointment was beautiful to behold.

Chrissie Tingle-leg was in full meltdown on MSNBC. The Business Insider headline: Romney Absolutely Destroyed Obama.  The London Telegraph's: Romney Humiliated Obama.  Zero's media lapdogs tried to blame moderator Jim Lehrer.

Other than Zero himself, I'd blame the White House Svengali, Valerie Jarrett, who controls access to him and makes sure no one who'd criticize him gets a chance to.  So when Romney rhetorically began smacking him around, he became a resentful deer in the headlights.

It was fascinating to watch Zero seem to literally shrink in size right on the debate stage.  Zero is 6-1, while Romney is 6-2, but it was Mitt's commanding presence and energy that was so much larger.  Zero became small right before our eyes.  Look how small he is (and how bitter-angry Moochelle is) in this post-debate pic:

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DEMOCRAT THUGS AND REPUBLICAN WEENIES


Many Democrats (and some Republicans) are all atwitter about Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin deciding to move to Singapore to partially escape what he believes is excessive taxation. Leaving the U.S. is a much more extreme action than moving from a high-tax state to a low-tax state, but a record number of Americans gave up their citizenship last year.

Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, and Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr., Pennsylvania Democrat - whose thought processes seem to be similar to those of King George III in 1776 - have denounced Mr. Saverin and introduced legislation to punish him and others who may wish to leave because of high taxes.

It appears to me that this is nothing more than a modern version of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850, which demanded slaves be returned to their "owners," who were in effect imposing close to a 100 percent tax upon their slaves.

Why don't more Republicans in Congress stand up to such Democrat thugishness -- most especially when it comes to the deficit spending that's bankrupting us and causing wealthy Americans to leave America?

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THE ENERGY OF LIBYA


We are witnessing in Tripoli today what it takes to get rid of a brutal dictatorship determined to keep power at all costs, and how the dictator's thugs will continue to desperately fight on as they face inevitable doom.

We will witness the same struggle here in the US in 2012. 

The Demagogue Party and its moocher minions will put up a ferocious struggle to maintain their power and paychecks - and they will lose as surely as has Muamar Gadaffi.  For they fight with lies, deceit, and thuggery, while we have unstoppable technology and no-longer-deniable truth.

The key to it all is energy.

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THE SPEECH EVERY AMERICAN HIGH SCHOOL PRINCIPAL SHOULD GIVE


To the students and faculty of our high school as we begin a new academic year this September of 2010:

I am your new principal, and honored to be so. There is no greater calling than to teach young people.

I would like to apprise you of some important changes coming to our school. I am making these changes because I am convinced that most of the ideas that have dominated public education in America have worked against you, against your teachers and against your country.

First, this school will no longer honor race or ethnicity. I could not care less if your racial makeup is black, brown, red, yellow or white. I could not care less if your origins are African, Latin American, Asian or European, or if your ancestors arrived here on the Mayflower or on slave ships.

The only identity I care about, the only one this school will recognize, is your individual identity -- your character, your scholarship, your humanity. And the only national identity this school will care about is American.

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GROVER IN MANCHURIA

Wrap your brain around this:


· The Policy Director for the Intelligence Division of the Department of Homeland Security - who has access to classified information on all our ports, airports, and everything else pertaining to national security - is a Moslem with direct ties to Islamic radicals under indictment by the FBI.

· This individual, named Faisal Gill, received his security clearances despite his lying on his clearance forms about his ties to Islamist organizations. When his deception was disclosed, he was suspended last March - and then reinstated with his clearances intact.

· The reason he got the job, received his clearance, and was reinstated after being suspended, was pressure from the single most influential Republican activist and lobbyist in Washington, Grover Norquist.

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NO FEAR OF FLU


Here we go again. A new bird-flu virus in China, the H7N9 strain, is spreading alarm. It has infected about 130 people and killed more than 30. Every time this happens, some journalists compete to foment fear, ably assisted by cautious but worried scientists, and then tell the world to keep calm.

We need a new way to talk about the risk of a flu pandemic, because the overwhelming probability is that this virus will kill people, yes, but not in vast numbers.

In recent years flu has always proved vastly less perilous than feared. In 1976 more people may have died from bad reactions to swine-flu vaccine than from swine flu. Since 2005, H5N1 bird flu has killed 374 people, not the two million to 7.4 million deemed possible by the World Health Organization. In 2009, H1N1 Mexican swine flu proved to be a normal flu episode despite apocalyptic forecasts.

No doubt some TTPers will remind me that, in the story of the boy who cried "Wolf!", there eventually was a wolf. And that in 1918 maybe 50 million people died of influenza world-wide. So we should always worry a bit. But perhaps it's not just luck that has made every flu pandemic since then mild.  It may be evolutionary logic.

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WHEN WILL DEMOCRATS APOLOGIZE FOR THEIR MISMANAGEMENT?


Last week, Jamie Dimon, CEO of the nation's largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, revealed that the bank had made a $2 billion-plus trading mistake. The bank has more than $2 trillion in assets and made a profit of about $20 billion last year. So it lost one-tenth of 1 percent of its assets and about 10 percent of its income for last year. No big deal, despite all the hand-wringing of the political and media class.

Predictably, Sen. Carl Levin, Michigan Democrat and arguably the most irresponsible member of Congress, immediately issued a press release calling for more bank regulation.

Congress has the oversight responsibility for the U.S. government, in much the same way a corporate board has the oversight responsibility for a corporation. Mr. Levin has the responsibility (along with his colleagues) to make sure taxpayer dollars are spent wisely and not wasted or stolen.

Medicare, for example, spends more than $500 billion annually. Sen. Tom Coburn, Oklahoma Republican (and medical doctor), who, unlike Mr. Levin, tries to be fiscally responsible, estimates that about 20 percent, or $100 billion, of Medicare spending is fraudulent.

Yet  Mr. Levin and many of his colleagues prefer to spend their time bashing private businesses rather than protecting the taxpayer, which is their responsibility.

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PALIN, PERRY, AND THE ROLLING STONES


On June 12, 1964, at Big Reggie's Danceland Ballroom in Excelsior, Minnesota (on Lake Minnetonka west of Minneapolis), The Rolling Stones gave a performance during their first American tour.  They were little-known back then (everyone was into Beatlemania), they were drunk, played poorly, and got booed off the stage by the audience of 300.

The next morning, Mick Jagger went into Bacon's Drug Store to fill a prescription.  Standing in front of him was a local character named Jimmy Hutmaker, Excelsior's retarded town mascot whom everyone befriended.  Jimmy wanted his usual morning pick-me-up, a cherry coke - but the fellow who manned the soda fountain said they were out of cherry syrup, so he gave Jimmy a regular coke.

Whereupon Jimmy turned to Mick, shrugged his shoulders, and said, "You can't always get what you want."

Jagger never forgot what "Mr. Jimmy" said, and used it to create an achingly extraordinary rock and roll masterpiece.  The song has been haunting me for the last several days.  I have listened to it a score of times during breaks reading a particular book.

And thus I have arrived at a conclusion:  However much we want Sarah Palin, what we need is Rick Perry.

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THE SAD DIVISIVENESS OF THE NAACP


I am saddened by the NAACP's claim that patriotic Americans who stand up for the United States of America's Constitutional rights are somehow "racists." The charge that Tea Party Americans judge people by the color of their skin is false, appalling, and is a regressive and diversionary tactic to change the subject at hand.

In 2008, it seemed that with the election of our first black president, our country had become a new "post-racial" society. As one writer in the Washington Post stated: "[Barack Obama's] election isn't just about a black president. It's about a new America. The days of confrontational identity politics have come to an end."

We, as a united people, applauded that sentiment. We were proud of that progress. That's why it is so sad to see that 18 months later, the NAACP is once again using the divisive language of the past to unfairly accuse the Tea Party movement of harboring "racist elements."

The only purpose of such an unfair accusation of racism is to dissuade good Americans from joining the Tea Party movement or listening to the common sense message of Tea Party Americans who simply want government to abide by our Constitution, live within its means, and not borrow and spend away our children's futures.

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TENET DOWN, POWELL TO GO

Here’s my initial take on CIA Director George Tenet’s resignation today (June 3). I think this is very good news. It shows that the Pentagon, Rumsfeld in particular, is fighting back. Remember - as was discussed last week in The Real Problem in Iraq - the real war in Iraq is between the State Department and the CIA on one side (that of the UN and Arab rulers like the Saudi Royal Family) and the Pentagon on the other (America and freedom-democracy for Arabs and Iraqis).

The focus of the war is now over the Oil-For-Food scandal, with State-CIA trying to squelch it, the Pentagon trying to expose it. As the fellow who discovered the scandal - some $5 billion in bribes paid by Saddam to dozens of the world’s most powerful people - and who has the incriminating documents, Ahmad Chalabi had to be destroyed.

As of last week, State/CIA was winning. Then they overplayed their hand - twice.

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IS BITCOIN A BUBBLE?


Seems like everyone these days is talking about Bitcoins and their implications for private money.

Bitcoins - a form of digital private money - shot up in value from $90 to $260 each after Cypriot bank accounts were raided by the State, then plunged last month before recovering some of their value. These gyrations are symptoms of a bubble. Just as with tulip bulbs or dotcom shares, there will probably be a bursting.

All markets in assets that can be hoarded and resold - as opposed to those in goods for consumption - suffer from bubbles. Money is no different; and a new currency is rather like a new tulip breed.

Yet it would be a mistake to write off Bitcoins as just another bubble. People are clearly keen on new forms of money safe from the confiscation and inflation that looks increasingly inevitable as governments try to escape their debts. Bitcoins pose a fundamental question: will some form of private money replace the kind minted and printed by governments?

It has happened before.

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THE FRAUD OF AUSTERITY


Denial is leading to collective economic suicide in Europe and the United States. The French on Sunday (5/06) elected a socialist president who wants to raise taxes on those elusive rich and keep spending as if there is no tomorrow. 

Many on the left, including European socialists in tandem with the New York Times and its economist Paul Krugman, are falsely claiming that Europe and even the United States are being saddled with "austerity." Their claim is that governments are not spending enough to reduce unemployment. They want higher taxes on the most productive plus bigger government.

The chart below shows that rather than the austerity the left is whining about, government spending has risen as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in all of the major economies.

The irony is that the refusal by those on the left, in both Europe and the United States, to deal with the "entitlement" problem is going to cause an involuntary austerity in which real incomes are going to fall for most people.

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THE WAGES OF ENVY


It isn't a pleasant sight to see England burning itself down, but it sure is instructive.    

We complain the extent of the welfare/moocher society in the US, but it is dwarfed by Britain's.  Over 20% of all British households live in council (public) housing and live off government welfare, with no one in the household having  job.  Anyone with any kind of claimed "disability" is given a monthly welfare check - for as long as they are "disabled," which can be and often is for the rest of their lives.  Millions of Brits receive Incapacity Benefits because - and they list this in the application - their addiction to alcohol and/or drugs makes them incapable of working.

That the council-housed-and-violent feral children, and feral parents, should be capable of mass looting should come as no surprise, because looting British taxpayers is their way of life.

The search is on, though, to identify the "root cause(s)" of all of this.  Rush Limbaugh says "Socialism created the UK rioters," citing Brit conservative Max Hastings, who says "Years of liberal dogma have spawned a generation of amoral, uneducated, welfare-dependent, brutalized youngsters."

Yet socialism or liberal dogma is only a proximate cause.  We need to ask, what is the cause of socialism, of liberal dogma? Those of you familiar with my writings know the answer:  the ancient primitive fear of the evil eye of envy.

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CALIFORNIA’S CROOKED CORRUPT COURTS


A distinguished 70-year-old attorney in poor health has been sitting in solitary confinement in "coercive incarceration" in the notorious Los Angeles County Men's Central Jail without being charged, tried, or convicted of anything since March 4, 2009.  

In effect, he was thrown in jail for an indefinite period with no bail or hearing set for blowing the whistle on judicial corruption in California.

The chain of events that led to his incarceration was set in motion in 2000, when Richard Fine became aware that L.A. superior court judges were receiving illegal "judicial benefits" payments from Los Angeles County, despite the fact that lawsuits against that county were often adjudicated by these same judges, thus creating clear conflict of interest problems.

In other words, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, with taxpayer funds, was bribing superior court judges to decide cases in favor of the county.  This is "the greatest judicial scandal in American history," as Mr. Fine says, and he has become an American political prisoner because of it.

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